Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
I have to laugh at how ill prepared I am for this season and how glad I'm not in Florida. I live in a sea level house whose streets flood (my driveway/carport is 1' below street level). We moved last September so outside of my first aid kit, I don't have a clue where any of my other supplies are: hatchet, flashlights, etc. I have no emergency batteries. I have no reserves of water. I own no plywood. My house is surrounded by old pecan and oak trees. I don't have cigs or booze in reserve. We don't own a generator. I've been slacking. We don't even have any ice or charcoal. LMAO. Use me as the 2004 poster child for what happens when you don't prepare even though I've got a feeling I'll be heading out to the supply store sometime in the next 3 weeks to cover my a$$. But Plywood isn't an option. I have too many windows and wouldn't have the time to deal with it anyway.
Poor me? Poor you. My call was for southern North Carolina and I'm prepared to go down with the ship. Should I be wrong (no fudging with 3 and 5 day forecasts as I go along, this was from last Thursday), chances of a somewhat rare SE or SSE hit on peninsular Florida could be in the offing. Problem is, this won't be our last hit. I'm sure we'll see 3-4 more hits before late November. Be sure to hedge in increased homeowner's policies next year 
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
frances is not weakining, pressure is dropping eye looking better on last satt. photos. lyons just said it has moved some south of due west. ominous for p.r. he said hurricane warning may be needed for them. this is a deadly monster forming.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> If brings winds higher than 90mph I'll be doing all the chasing form inside my house
Rabbit, that's going down in the future Gems! Keep posting! I'll be chasing in my garage!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Phil, are you getting anything from Hermine?
Im surprised it is still a TS based on satellite imagery
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Rabbit, if the "first call on landfall" is anywhere close, you'll be eating crow with your statement of "I am certain the winds will not exceed 100 mph."
The 11pm forecast advisory brings the center to 28°N/81°W at 5 days, inland after hitting the coast as a 120kt hurricane. Where is 28/81? Orlando is at 28.5/81.3, so that places it just south-southeast of Orlando by about 30 miles to the south and 18 miles to the east...think Narcoosee, FL. That'd put the storm passing just to your south.
For those of you all in the Stewart fan club -- he's got the 11pm package on coming up shortly.
Gaston has been reclassified as a T.S. about 50mi SW of Ocean City, MD, while Hermine is still being carried as a T.S. based off of buoy data south of Massachusetts. It (Hermine) is nearing landfall, but at this rate is bound just to kick up the wind a bit with some passing showers. In fact, many people there are bound to think what the big deal is about, as they may well receive no rain from this system at all.
A few new watches/warnings are up for , mainly in the big islands, with potential T.S. watches for the Turks & Caicos tomorrow.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I am afraid that an undercurrent of concern is starting in the Tampa Bay/Orlando TV web sites. So far I have read two sites, one is stating possible landfall at West Palm Beach and another is calling it Fort Pierce. One site is saying the Hurricane will graze the Eastern Coast on its way to the Carolinas. I know they are picking their own favorite model and going with it, but this is very confusing to the person who is unaware that models are computers and not Blonde weather announcers on !
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
No, actually, it's dry as a bone at the moment, but it's supposed to kick in the overnight.
Wunderground wx radar
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
FloridaBrevard
Unregistered
|
|
New forecast Graphic
Puts center near Orlando at the furthest extent, inland in Florida... Ignore the point! (I know its hard) the error will be large.
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
much like 1998, Hermine is barely showing on radar
As for my forecast of , remember that in 1999 with Floyd how inaccurate the three day forecasts were--this is five day
if it were 36 or 48 hours out and still forecasting it, I'd be just a bit concerned, but I am not going to panic (as several people are where I live--several discussing evacuating--to the Carolinas)
I have also been noticing that the forecast landfall point is farther north each time--leading me to believe that since these are five day forecasts that it will eventually be forecast to turn east
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
The track has moved farther east again
offshore
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
I'm not a big fan of cutting and pasting information, but this tidbit from the 11pm discussion bears watching, from Stewart:
"...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING."
Here's where this thinking comes in...
1) There is already a sharp trough evident in water vapor imagery across the east-central U.S., and there is energy riding over the ridge in the western U.S. to reinforce this. However, with the strength of the subtropical ridge, it is likely only to amplify the trough and not move it eastward.
2) With a deepening trough in the central U.S., there has to be a corresponding strengthening on a ridge somewhere to compensate. This is likely to be in conjunction with the Atlantic ridge. Add in the gain in intensity you sometimes see of the ridge as a tropical cyclone recurves around it's base - here, Gaston - and this is very plausible.
3) The 00Z model runs that arrive about 2am (& later) will include yet another series of Gulfstream jet data from earlier this afternoon. Any and all additional data is going to influence the track forecasts in a positive way, and with a better sample of the environment, the aformentioned shift in the track may well be verified.
I can only hope that the NWS is having all eastern and central U.S. NWS offices launch 6hrly baloons for upper-air observations, as there is a noted increase in forecast ability with increased upper-air data across the United States. If we did thus on a regular basis again, our forecasts would be twice as good as they are now (and that's just midlatitude weather I'm speaking of)! But, I haven't heard of any plans to that effect yet.
It sure will be interesting to see the 00Z model runs, but again - it's not a point storm, it's a big storm.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Back on Friday I think the model showed going into Mobile Al Bay, which brought quite a chuckle from me at the time..... four days later.... and looking at the lastest hurricane track..... it might not be that far off after all.... from what I heard and read tonight via other news sources and web sites..... I would not be surprised to see the track move south and west over time..... what a challenging storm to track.. guess we'll see tomorrow if the ridge is going to be stronger than earlier expected and shift the track more to the left.... I'm just gawking at all the changes in track like everyone else... but I still like my Kennedy Space Center and somewhat south target areas as I told Steve and Phil a couple of days ago... so does the right now too, but IT will change no doubt
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
this is more to the south than floyd was, and a trof pulled floyd there is no trof for .
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Food for thought...this is the Eta, which is not the best of models to use, but this is the first model to have the new G-IV integrated into it....
84hr Eta
Don't fixate on the locatiom, but the trend....
JK
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Phil,
Here are some current links you may already know about, or if not, could be of general interest:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...l/302053.shtml?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/we...ts/storm_06.gif
*personal note: I REALLY hate this one*
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages...i_gif_full.html
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi...ion=Orlando+Fla
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...en_m_loop.shtml
Richard
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looks to have the GOM written all over it now doesn't it.....
I have to add that this is based on the ETA model..... which maybe is reading the strength of the ridge being reinforced
I am not saying it will go into the GOM.... only what the model appears to be trending....
Edited by Frank P (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:28 AM)
|
Brad
Unregistered
|
|
Jason: any idea where the previous ETA model, i.e. the one without the benefit of the new data, had at approximately the same time?
Thanks for putting that up and apprizing us that it included the new data -- I've seen a lot of helpful stuff on this board today, but your last post was the most helpful.
-Brad
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Previous 84hr
Be aware that this is not the same exact time...this is 6 hrs earlier than the current 84 hr I posted above...but you can tell that the Eta is much faster and further south...a sign of the stronger ridge.
This is the link to the same time period on the 00Z Eta...
00z Eta...same time as above
--------------------
Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:32 AM)
|
UC WX Dept
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
|
|
Some of those links don't work...the dots are being read as part of the URL.
For what it's worth Channel 2 in the Orlando market just did a five minute spiel on 3 different scenarios, but the other two from what I see aren't as alarmist.
Too bad I don't need overzealous mets to be alarmist about this. Even after taking the worst had to offer for the east coast i'm not taking this one lightly.
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Are you talking about Hermine or ? The looks to actually slightly to the left of its previous track to me for .
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
