jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
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I give this thing a 45% chance of making the gulf. Of course yesterday I said 20% chance so who knows but gulf looking like more of a possibility. I'll wait til after I hear what Dr. Bill Williams from Univ. of South Alabama says tomorow before I start to worry about it making the gulf.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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For what it is worth, I just did a 5 minute spiel on the 3 scenarios as well. What, in your mind, makes that alarmist? An area which JUST went thru a major hurricane event, who's residents are understandably on edge and nervous...I think that more coverage is better. What did he do or say that was overzealous?
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Jason Kelley
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Do you think this is as a result of the new data or as a result of just normal trends.. I have heard the ETA is not one of the most reliable models, and sometimes can be very eratic.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Jason, are you suggesting that this is a i south into the GOM storm? THat ETA is quite a bit further south!!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Jason,
What is your gut instinct telling you on this one.
at this point in time?
I'm in Orlando but have a friend who will be in Southwest Fla on Fri/Sat...
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Your doing a great job Jason.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Jasons not saying its GOM. Hes just saying the ETA has the new info into the model run. It may show that but will come in agreement with the overall model package as z runs continue until landfall. We are looking to see the ooz runs to see if it might want to go into the gulf further south then where 18Z had her. scottsvb
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I'm not sold on ANY track yet...but I do consider the possibility of this being a Gulf storm much more likely than if you had asked me at 10am this morning. My initial gut on this storm as early as this past weekend was for a Miami/West Palm landfall (in fact, one of the members of this board has an e-mail from me to prove it!  )...I backed off of that a little bit last night and today, but I am starting to get really concerned about a S FL, then Gulf strike. The trough in the central US, as so ably described by Clark and Stewart, is digging quite well, and will reinforce the ridge over the W Atlantic.
BUT....I can and have been wrong too many times to count...while this progression of data is better news for JAX or the Carolinas, NOBODY is out of the woods yet. Pay close attention the next few days!
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Jason Kelley
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UC WX Dept
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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The only thing that really stuck out was the fact as I flipped to the TV station in question, I saw a huge graphic stating in large letters "Saturday 140+ MPH winds"
Not everyone is as savvy as members of this board, and I know several people who will construe that as "OMG that will definetly happen now! It's all over"
My opinion aside I agree with you, more coverage is better. I just think the stations in this market need to state that there is room for error more clearly and concisely, IMO. Maybe it's an overcorrection for the local stations being late about .
That's just my two cents. I'm definetly not a Meteorologist, but i'm studying to be one.
I'm hoping for the ever decreasing possibilty of the hook for this one.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, I guess that cancels my escape route to North Georgia, huh?
That is honestly a nightmare scenario. Up the state all the way from one end to the other? I surely hope that does not happen. The other problem I see with this storm is it's current movement @ 13 to 14mph. That gives us much less time to do a whole lot. Hopefully any visitors that plan on making a Labor Day Weekend vacation in Florida are paying attention to the news.
The good news is that we have a shelter here right across the street at our local highschool.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Some of those links don't work...the dots are being read as part of the URL.
For what it's worth Channel 2 in the Orlando market just did a five minute spiel on 3 different scenarios, but the other two from what I see aren't as alarmist.
Sorry, something happened in the editor I guess. THese work in the preview mode so hopefully they will work for you. Again, sorry.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm6+shtml/302053.shtml?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/...ion=Orlando+Fla
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Worked just fine Richard Thanks
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Texas is a BIG state and we have plenty of room for all of ya'll to come and get away from this big monster. In fact, we could be the only ones who don't have to worry about at this point.
ShawnS
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Texas is a BIG state and we have plenty of room for all of ya'll to come and get away from this big monster. In fact, we could be the only ones who don't have to worry about at this point.
ShawnS
Wait a few more model runs...we'll get 'ya. 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Thanks for the feedback...Again, I'm sorry the original didn't xfer right.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I didn't watch Fox 8 @ 9 but someone reported that Breck is thinking may clip the keys and then head for Fort Walton or Panama City Beach. I guess it's plausible. He based his hunch on forward speed and strength. Apparently he thinks it's going to be a powerful storm. All I'm going to say is that is turning into a pretty ominous threat for the United States. With , you couldn't be sure of what he had until hours prior to landfall. But anyone can see where has been and what her potential is. I wouldn't want to come off as being too alarmist, but someone's (and quite possibly) a lot of people are going to pay.
I read a report out of Newport or Richmond where there were 10' of water in some buildings (11+" of rain in a short timespan). Gaston turned out to be a major story throughout SC, NC, VA and will be beyond. Bastardi thinks TS conditions in New England. Pretty trippy. Wet storm followed by a powerhouse storm.
And oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, 2004 is shaping up to be the all time sickest troipcal season and we're not even in September yet. /food for thought
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here's a weather statement from the area up in Virginia, it's been raining nonstop since about 5PM here. Gaston is nasty for flooding...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA
* UNTIL 200 AM EDT
* AT 1000 PM EDT...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAD
ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR
DAM. WATER IS NOW OVERTOPPING THE SPILLWAY...AND DAM FAILURE IS
POSSIBLE. THOSE ORDERED TO EVACUATE ARE INSTRUCTED TO GO TO
MEADOWBROOK HIGH SCHOOL.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING...THOSE AREAS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK
RESERVOIR DAM...INCLUDING MANY IN THE MEADOWBROOK AREA.
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED DUE TO THE POSSIBLE FAILURE OF
THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR DAM.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
LAT...LON 3734 7752 3730 7746 3739 7738 3753 7762
3756 7766 3744 7780 3744 7776 3741 7776
3740 7774 3738 7771 3737 7766
$$
REILLY
So Gaston is causing quite the headache, I95 at I64 in Richmond is also closed do to the interstate flooding.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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take a close look--it may never happen again
weather channel map
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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new has running right into the ridge to her north and moving NW or even NNW. Very odd run with new data. Model might be out to lunch on this one,, will check others.
scottsvb
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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You beat me too it Scott.. I was just going to provide a link.. This is the 96 Hr 08/31/2004 00Z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_096.shtml
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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