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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 100 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1154 (Michael) Major: 1154 (Michael)

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Jason M
Weather Watcher

Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
      #2181 - Mon Aug 26 2002 09:13 PM


Tropical Weather Outlook

Watching several areas tonight but tropical development is not expected in the short term.

Tropical Weather Discussion

I apologize for not updating the pages daily....I have been very busy as of late.

Now for the tropics... The convection off the east coast won't develop. The surface circulation is over land. In addition, this system isn't purely tropical to begin with.

The convection in the southwest Caribbean is slightly more interesting. This convection has been persisting for about a week now. There are only two problems...#1 40 knot wind shear to the north and #2 land to its west. My current thinking is that this disturbance will begin moving west-northwest, towards the Bay of Campeche. However, the shear and land could cause the wave to fall apart. Its journey over land is the key.

Currently, we have an upper low over the southeast. Model guidance suggests that the low will move SSW over the next few days. This low could eventually work its way down to the surface. How far south will the low travel...thats the question. If the low were to make it into the central Gulf, we could have some development. If the low stays nears the coast, you can forget about it. The weekend along the northern Gulf states looks rainy.

I don't see any development from the wave in the central Atlantic. The environment out ahead of the wave is too hostile.

There is another tropical wave about to exit the African coast. A couple models are hinting on development but conditions are still a bt too hostile for development. Another wave, behind the one just mentioned has the greatest potential out of the two. But I will wait to see how it does over water before I begin to speculate.

***MJO Update***

We now have five tropical systems all across the northern Pacific Ocean. The recent burst of activity in the CPAC and EPAC is in response to the easterly moving negative "wet" phase of the MJO. Within the next 2-3 weeks, the heart of the negative phase will be centered directly over the central Atlantic basin. If this does occur, it mean that the MJO discussion posted by Rob Mann and I back in June is still verifying almost 100%. This also means that the Tropical Weather Watchers seasonal hurricane forecast still has a decent shot of verifying. This depends highly on the strength of the negative MJO and how long it will dominate the pattern across the Atlantic basin. The forecast for a burst of activity hasn't changed.





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