HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Looks like anouther track shift based on the models .
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
I wonder if the track will change in the next adv that we should have in the next 40 mins.
If your running low of space I would be glad to donate just let me know .
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john03
Unregistered
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31/1145 UTC 20.0N 63.2W T5.5/5.5
31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0
cat 4? she is strengthing right?
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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the closer the storm gets...the more people will jam up these boards.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)
I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php
Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.
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mikeG
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sat shot
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Space Coast
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Mike-I love the model animator concept. It'll be great to see a visual model trend history, as opposed to raw numbers and archived images. Kudos.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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That will be a great tool!
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doug
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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In reply to HCW...
My goodness, just look at how bad that UKMET initialization is! It is WELL north and east of even the last intialization. I really can't buy into the UKMET track when the initial position is that far off. The is a little closer but seems to really be an outlier by taking the storm right up into South Carolina.
The 12Z doesn't look too bad to me. It basically takes the storm into NE Florida, which seems reasonable given the pattern at this time.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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i still think this storm is goind more wnw than w...minus a few wobbles left and right
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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It has to go wnw or else it bumps into the islands.
The forward speed is what has me concerned. Was this speed predicted? I think landfall may be sooner than originally thought.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Thanks Mike - great work so far. No doubt the system's gonna crash at some point, but hopefully you'll have it back up and running soon thereafter. For the west movement folks, zoom in on your favorite GOES loop and you will see the system overall heading is WNW or north of due west, but it's not moving west. is climbing in lat:
Check:
NOAA Vis
ORCA global infrared
Both depictions clearly show attaining lat (pushing 21). DT (I think it was) believed this would be temporary as felt the nudge from Gaston. We'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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john03
Unregistered
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this s floyd in 1999... 1999 September 14, 12:59 UT
fixing to see soon!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Watched the Tropical Update at 2:50pm and Cheryl Lemke said that a "gradual wnw turn is expected in the next couple of days". Well, if this sucker's still moving at 16mph in 48 hours, that is 770 miles further west before it STARTS that turn. Are we even that far from the Bahamas?
About the NASA comment: I realize that there's windows of opportunity. I made a general comment. I never said that I was a rocket scientist. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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The plan was for it to start a wnw movement. As said if it doesnt it would crash into Cuba. Which is inside the cone but not expected. Not concerned with where it goes today as opposed to 3 days from now. Concerned a window opens but a narrow one and slams shut again and turns more west.
Will see.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)
I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php
Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.
Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.
Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Redbird
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No Colleen but you are a darn good weather person who has helped many see more clearly.
LOL the so-called rocket scientists botch up quite a bit. 
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Seeing these things on radar after watching so many sat loops is always a refreshing change. No matter where she goes, it's not going to be good. PR is VERY LUCKY as are the Islands. The Bahamas...that's a whole other story. Guess they're the first in line for the direct hit. Let's hope they make out OK
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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john03
Unregistered
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evry seen something like this?
coooool pic....its a full moon over three storms
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Redbird. I just like poking fun at myself, at least that way I don't take it personal. ;-)
I am anxiously awaiting the 5pm update, and then after THAT is over, I'm heading over to ESPN Fantasy Football to do my live draft at 6pm while trying to whip up dinner with a twitch of my nose around 8pm when Thing 1 and Thing 2 come home from football practice.
Sorry if that was OT, but I'm coming down with a case of Hurricanitis so I'm not quite myself. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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john03
Unregistered
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here it comes
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