Kimmie@work2
Unregistered
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Jason, thanks for the info from last night. We are watching closely. Have noticed the shifts in the models again to the south. This may sound crazy, but is a pretty gal! Prayers go out to the Bahamas! The next 48 hours may get pretty rough for them. Sorry, I have not registered. I can't at work, so i will try when I get home. Kimmie
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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European Model Request:
http://www.ecmwf.int/
Click on the maps (3 side by side) then click North America (to your right). then you can move between dates/times.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Been watching this storm dilligently all day like most everyone on the east coast I'm sure. I went back and checked out the movement from Saturday to today. Obviously this storm has moved much further west than it has north, but the difference was very evident when I plotted it out. From 5am Saturday to 5am today the difference in movement was 2.9 degrees north and 11.5 degrees west. From 5pm Sat to 5pm today it's movement was 2.6 degrees north and 13.3 degrees west. I keep seeing the trof draped across the SE just north of Florida, and that high pressure ridge out to the east. For some reason I just don't see taking a dramatic turn to the NW and continuing that trend. Obviously a NW turn, and continued motion in that direction over the next few days would put landfall anywhere from Melbourne northward. However, like I said I have a gut feeling this thing is coming in through south Florida. I think it's moving too fast west, faster than some thought it would be at this point in time, to make a very dramatic turn to the NW and head on the track that the has right now. Just a hunch, but I also hunched that wasn't going to make it all the way to Tampa, though that one was a little easier to call.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:23 PM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Steve,
Looks like the European has landfall between WPB & Vero. This general area is what most forecasts today are calling for.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Where is HankFrank and his forecast??
i go to work in the day, man. no computers on the job site. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:42 PM)
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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when will the next models come out??
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AphCane04
Unregistered
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Quote:
Check out the Visible Floater....
SRSO loops...
This is not directly related to the hurricane (or maybe it is?), but check out that impressive East Coast seabreeze front that pushed inland today, seemingly in a line all the way from Jacksonville to Miami.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif
more worried on this track
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Colleen, I think you are a magnet this season....
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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what worries me is a split between the two..
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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18z is out now,,, its even alittle further south then the 12Z run. Now its showing a landfall near Melbourne across the state- Ocala then more N after that. I also see after a decent wnw movement the first 24 hours then almost more nw then slowing down due to the exiting weak trough off the S.E. US then turns more again wnw by Friday thru Saturday making a landfall. Soooo many varibles come into play here with the current movement and slowing and then turning wnw more at the end. Next main trough wont affect this to at least Sunday now so the path now is in the strength of the ridge in the near term, then how fast the weakness off the carolinas and GA moves out to push her again wnw. Point is in all this,, 18Z ETA and now sees this slowing then turning wnw Friday.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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don't think i'll close it up completely yet, but going to narrow my strike window tonight. still expecting a stairstep near the bahamas and a terminal left. think it will come ashore as a 3/4 between daytona and beaufort.. emphasis near brunswick, ga.. moving wnw/nw at the time. the harder recurvature shown in the globals looks a tad too extreme for me (too much ridge strength for nnw movement east of 80w), and much of the rest of the globals are drifting around or painting central florida... like to stay a little right of the consensus as a matter of course. intensity is hard to prog, but follow the idea that it oscillates around 120-130 kt for the next 3 days or so then slowly weakens as it nears the coastline... to around 110-120kt range. system has accelerated a bit more than i expected.. but landfall timeframe still centered on sunday morning, september 5th.
gonna stick to this general idea, until it becomes unfeasible or verifies.
gaston heading out this evening, likely an advisory or three from being declared .
elsewhere in the basin rather irked that isn't classifying the system nw of the cape verdes (97L).. sheared or not the rating has risen today to a paired 2.5 and that's tropical storm intensity. since the system is sheared and the vortex partially exposed, it has the obvious qualifications for at least depression status.. but is still feeding us the same line of 'chance to develop'. it's window for classification will close soon.. possibly for a while and potentially for good.. as it encounters the upper wsw jet from the upper low digging in wake. it should move w to wnw as a sheared system and do little in the way of further developing for 3-4 days.
another wave has exited and has a large envelope of rotation at the mid-levels.. but is low latitude and convectively mediocre... globals develop it by late in the week.
that's the tropics as august is coming to a close.
HF 2238z31august
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Frances is not Floyd and is not Andrew. I know a lot of people are trying to compare them, but the conditions surrounding all three storms were very different. Some commonalities, but those are inherent to this time of year. The building high, troughs coming through, etc. This is a storm all its own and we need to treat it as such. And what a beautiful monster! As the setting sun puts the eye into shadow it sends chills down my spine.
Bill
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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so hank under your window.. miami is clear 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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TheElNino
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I've been seeing a consistent deep convection (deep red-on the IR) surrounding ' eye. She's in store for more rapid deepening taking her to a Category 5 soon, perhaps by late tonight if she maintains the deep convection around her center.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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under my window. you can decide what it was worth in a few days.
HF 2252z31august
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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VERY interesting run there, looks to be lining up with this afternoon's more westerly and southern trends. FWIW is moving due west at this time.
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lois
Unregistered
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1945/index.html
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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For the life of me, I see nothing that indicates all this carolina, georgia, top of florida stuff.
This hurricane will wreak unbelievable havoc on the bahamas. Sure hope those people, when they had the chance, left.
we get it, rick.. miami-mobile, nothing else possible. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:22 PM)
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Kevin,
Agree, this is a shift left again for , and way left of the 00Z run, which had gone far right and east from the previous runs. I hope the models start to settle in tomorrow. And I also agree the track is west, it stair-stepped a little earlier this afternoon, but is still on a west track.
That ULL over the Bahamas looks like it is getting squashed, I am assuming it is going away.
Bill
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