rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
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thanks for your nice moderation, LI phil...
I have written nothing that suggests I don't believe this is serious. We hear your opinions, and everyone else's..and I suppose we are not "allowed" to poo-poo them as you are comfortably doing to mine. I called Miami or the keys 2 days ago, and then hooking into the gulf. The high level ridge in the Atlantic is why I made that call...and watching the hurricane kick dead left...as Andrew did.
I am not interested, nor is anyone else, in trashing one another.
what exactly, does being a moderator entail? I'm confused.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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It's official -- track is now WNW. I would think this would push the projected landfall up a tadbit north, but who knows.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
thanks for your nice moderation, LI phil...
I have written nothing that suggests I don't believe this is serious. We hear your opinions, and everyone else's..and I suppose we are not "allowed" to poo-poo them as you are comfortably doing to mine. I called Miami or the keys 2 days ago, and then hooking into the gulf. The high level ridge in the Atlantic is why I made that call...and watching the hurricane kick dead left...as Andrew did.
I am not interested, nor is anyone else, in trashing one another.
what exactly, does being a moderator entail? I'm confused.
LOL... on some chat boards it means you get to subsitute your opinion for another.... 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
This is an old discussion; from 5am this morning NOT 5PM. Please check and don't confuse people who are looking for current info.
First, I'm quite aware of what time it is, and 2nd, this was in an E-Mail to me from the that came in at 5:30PM today....maybe he said similar things this morning, but this was going 'you've got mail' just moments before I posted the question to HF. I asked HIS opinion as to the 's left bias despite the recent model shifts N and E by the here-to-fore 'good guys' oand left outlier models that now show NE bias. Also, please join us by registering.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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I've noticed that you seem to enjoy busting on people...get off it and stay on topic...that's what you preach...y'all...ya'll...who cares, dude...
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
But there was a different path per Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Ask 'skeetobite'. He is the one with the program. He posted the 11am info he had, hopefully his source of data will be updated soon. The graphics from , etc., may NOT be the source of his data input to his program.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
But there was a different path per Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I have been watching this storm for a couple of days and it has always had a very slight N component all along, even though the kept saying West. It does appear to have a little more North in the track now, but I don't see it as significant, yet.
Bill
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Quote:
But there was a different path per Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
Possibly you could limit the 5 day period to the Thursday-Sunday based upon the 5pm forecast data? Will your program take info from that source? Thanks for your efforts so far, they really do help 'tell the tale' to a lot of people used to watching the center red line and ignoring the widespread AREA being affected.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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John C
Unregistered
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Ok folks! I know that this is an excitable time and tempers are heating up. However, there will be NO name calling or third grade tantrums allowed on this site. If you feel the need to pull someone's hair, or to give verbal noogies, DON'T! Step away from the site for a while and realize that each and every person who visits this site has the same rights and abilities to voice their opinion as we all do. Clean it up, or we will. I know we don't all see "Eye to Eye", but this is the time to share some good will, not take pot shots.
Just asking everyone to calm down a bit.
Thanks -John
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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No, it's not too late. Unlikely, but not too late. Hurricane Beulah, 1967, the 1919 hurricane, and even the great Galveston Hurrican of 1900 ... all in September, all born outside the GOM.
No, doesn't look like any kind of Texas hit, but another one isn't totaly out of the question...
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My THINKING was the furthest west would be central gulf coast. I KNOW SHE IS NOT COMING HERE!!!!!!! It is too late in the season for Texas to get a tropical system unless it is homegrown.
ShawnS
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Interesting that has it forecasted to stay off the coast, going up the coast.
Is this the only model that projects this path?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I agree with John. LI Phil means no harm, his is simply making comments. Please respect every other ones rights and thoughts. Thanks.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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This is officially going WNW now, correct?
TWC reported it at 7:50, I just want to make sure another source can verify this...
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Thanks Phil - just found it.. a Cat4 across us covers the entire barrier island with water (as much as 7 feet deep in some places) and as much as 4 feet well into Tampa. WOW. That doesn't count the surges on the beach or being on the west side of the storm for any length of time.
Yikes..
Here is a storm surge model from NOAA on Tampa Bay. It is a video and you will need a quicktime player.
http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 01 2004 12:23 AM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Looks like she is following the projected path fairly well all day today. See below...you won't see the early plots but they were pretty much on target give or take a couple of stair steps wnw:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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VADavid
Unregistered
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The numbers from SSD are now at 6.5/6.5 or 127kts.
Also of note is that ' intensity has been maintained at above these numbers for quite some time. That is, for the past few days it has been 5.5/5.5 or even 5.0/5.5 which should relate to 102kts and 90kts for 5.0, but the actual intensity has been 110-115kts, so it would seem to be even stronger than 127kts at the moment.
In any case, the satellite images have been extremely impressive with a stable and circular eyewall and extremely deep convection unlike earlier wrapping all the way around.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Ahhhhhh I know we are all nervous.........and edgy. The mood in my house is not a good one either...........the vibe is jacked and we are getting on each other's nerves so I know how that goes.
Phil gives us a place to share info along with Mike.............let's all try to understand each other's angst.
(((((( ))))))))
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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See this model spread....interesting that many models are now moving south toward South FL (YIKES) and Central FL again. (link is from S FL Water Mgmt):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The has been on target this year with every hurricane very well, they must be working their butts off!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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