Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Let's not forget , who had an 18mb pressure drop down to 944mb with winds at 115mph at 10am, then at 11am it skyrocketed to 145mph just as it was about to make landfall.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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so with the new track does that lesssen central Florida hit
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Jeffmidtown
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Even though the folks in Florida shouldn't let their guard down, the scariest part is now where the storm is heading and it looks like Savannah is going to feel the brunt of it. And they are already having some monor flooding in that part of the state now.
I would think that Gov. Perdue would be best served leaving the convention in NYC and heading back to Atlanta, because they probably are going to have to activate the state EOC probably sometime on Wednesday if ' current track and speed remain the same. If a Friday/Saturday landfall in SE Georgia is predicted then they would at least need a 48-hour window to evacuate the coastal areas and flip I-16 to one way( like with Floyd). BUT< with the dearth of hotel rooms in Macon and here in Atlanta, you could see a major exodus to Alabama to get away from this monster.
This has to be the most frustrating storm to try and figure out the track and the timing. I guess I'm sounding alarmist because even though I'm 4 hours from the coast, the not knowing is the worst thing.
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wxman007
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is!
Colleen, shoot me the links to the sats you are looking at and I will try to clear it up....
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Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.
Not really, as the storm gets closer, the overall confidence in the forecast track gets better...remember that is not over WPB, but with 65 MILES of WPB...that is simply just a reflection of being closer to the US.
Quote:
Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.
Yes, it does....
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
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Yes, it does. But just keep in mind that it is still heading in our general direction, and the track really can't be pinned down until we see some real consistincies with the track/models etc. Also, don't just look at the  symbol, look all around it. That's the margin of error. The closer it gets, the smaller that will become and somewhere someone will be breathing a sigh of relief while others start hyperventilating. Keep yourself tuned in to your local news.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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meto
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it is moving wwnw you have to look at overall path not every little wobble. this thing is getting very strong......think models are are going left again.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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If is getting stronger, which she looks like she is, she could possibly change the environment around her which would really complicate things. The stronger she gets,the more likely she creates her own path. Models will not pick up on that. If I'm wrong about this than please excuse this whole post!
ShawnS
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Here you go, Jason:
GOES Satellite Loop
Western Atlantic WV Loop
I couldn't get the visible page to come up; but I did notice that on this one it sure has jumped to the north quite a bit.
Thanks for clearing up the strike probs. question up, and helping me understand these pictures.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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meto
Weather Guru
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twc it is now down to 27.92 from 28.05
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I use to have a site book-marked which has the most recent t-numbers. Anyone still have a link to this site?
Thanks!
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jbcmh81
Unregistered
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Frances *is* getting stronger. Latest Recon has the pressure down to 942mb.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT11 KWBC 311728
97779 17284 30207 64719 24200 12112 15125 /8487
RMK NOAA3 1106A OB 06 KWBC
winds 112? 20.7N 64.7w?
not a center fix tho
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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942 mb
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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This is definitely more WNW than W.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Wouldn't the "wobbles" be attributed to sort of feeling her way along the bottom of the ridge? I mean the ridge isn't a perfect shape, and where it dips or retreats wouldn't also move a bit north of south? Also, does anyone have a link to a map/model of exactly what the subtropical ridge is forecast to look like in the upcoming days?
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Check the Surf
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wxman007
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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OK..there isn't much disparity there to my eye...everything looks right with one exception..you don't track the center with WV!!!!  (I'm not harping on you specifically here, BTW), You are seeing the mid-level center on WV and the low level center on Vis's....they SHOULDN'T match up exactly,
Otherwise, I really still don't follow you, because the two loops you linked match up quite well.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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colleen,
its crosed 20 and 65...moving a good clip actually, wnw continues and its on track but maybe a bit fast. if yous tart to see it slow than there might be a turn coming but that really isnt part of the plan.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect.
I was going to say the exact same thing but didn't feel like getting bashed
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Jason...it is definitely hard to follow me at times. 
I was looking at the Visibles from both; the only reason I posted the WV was because the visible would not come up on the 's website.
It will all come together for me sooner or later. Hopefully sooner. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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