Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Clark,
Thanks for the headsup on the SE model. Dr. Avilla referenced it in the 5 TWD. I used to be able to get some of the runs at independentwx.com, but they don't have the link for it anymore on their website  . It must have gone completely proprietary or something.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cape Coral
Unregistered
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Just got off the phone with him.
They have given everyone Friday off, so the can make prep.
His bosses believe they will call for a evac of barrier Islands Thursday PM
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Cape Coral
Unregistered
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SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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What would cause the ridge that is making stay westward and south to weaken?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey everyone, been awhile since I've posted. I've been doing my own research on and my thought right now is that the ULL near S Fl and the Bahamas may have an effect on the track of . The ULL is drifting SW and weaking, which should allow the ridge to build a bit more. Im guessing the ULL is what caused the little Northward movement earlier today. Also take into account the fact that Strong hurricanes strengthen the ridge over the top of them. So IMO this all leads to a landfall left of the forecast track. Im in the same boat as DT basically. Any thoughts?? Also, if the Euro model is right it looks like could become a threat to the Panhandle. This would only occur with a south flordia landfall. Steve, Coop, do ya'll have any thoughts about this?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Jason,
An 'attack' on it would (via trof, split, front, etc.).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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its a possibilty if it hits way south (west palm/miami) but my feeling is more central fla. like the track. we may still get some winds but there won't be the water surge. as fast as it is moving if it does hit in southern fla it won't take it long to get in the gulf. i still don't buy into this northern turn.. i know it is going north some but i not sure there is going to be enough time to take it away from the fla coast as fast as it is moving. btw was it predicted to speed up like this?
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StormLover
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
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Frances has been slowly speeding up within the last few hours. It seems that it won't have enough time to turn very far northward before it makes landfall. The weather channel's hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons said he felt the time of landfall would now be more around Friday night. How will passing over the Bahamas affect its strength before it hits the US? Anyone think we may be dealing with a possible Category 5 here?
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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course, we all knew that, now didn't we?
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Hi  Just registered yesterday... been lurking for a few days. Lots of relatives and friends all along the Eastern seaboard, they're all asking me ???s. eep.
And my mom thought this would be a great week to take a cruise... yup.
Anyway... that pic? There are 4 storms I think... TS Howard is just off the Pacific coast of Mexico at 14.8N 108.4W 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004 according to ... soon to be a hurricane which we won't need to worry about here. Cool pic.
Thanks ya'll for all the good info!
'shana
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Orlando
Unregistered
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Well I think thats a way to seriously ruin your weekend, I don't think it will be Miami but maybe my area. Ugh, its going to be a heck of a weekend. 
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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FWIW, accuwx pro has a cool model called wave watch III. Looking at wave heights, it's showing 30' waves for 09Z05SEPT2004 from about Cocoa Beach all the way up to Jax. Yikes! That's wave height, not surge.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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wonder what the surge will be?? plus with the wave height.. man alot of people are gonna lose some valuable real estate. makes me glad my flood policy is paid up
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Anybody have acess to the Ens.? Could you please post a link. It seems the Euro is the one model I have a hard time tracking down. Thanks
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AphCane04
Unregistered
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Quote:
Frances has been slowly speeding up within the last few hours. It seems that it won't have enough time to turn very far northward before it makes landfall. The weather channel's hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons said he felt the time of landfall would now be more around Friday night. How will passing over the Bahamas affect its strength before it hits the US? Anyone think we may be dealing with a possible Category 5 here?
Andrew did weaken somewhat over the Bahamas, didn't he? Of course, the warm, deep waters of the FL Straits allow for a bumping back up in strength.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I was just looking at the water vapor loop and to be honest I do not see where there is anything that can keep from moving west. It almost looks like the trough is being eaten away by either the ridge building in or maybe by herself. I know that sounds stupid but at the same time I'm not real good at figuring out WV images and trying to get info from them. If this is not true than at least it will be a mistake I can learn from.
ShawnS
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Heather
Unregistered
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How was Andrew's early track as compared to ? All I remember is Andrew barrelling right at us in South Florida?
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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andrews track
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Check out the Visible Floater....
SRSO loops...
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Jason Kelley
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