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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HCW
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Re: Landfall? [Re: LI Phil]
      #22138 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:55 PM

Looks like anouther track shift based on the models .

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif


I wonder if the NHC track will change in the next adv that we should have in the next 40 mins.


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john03
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what does this mean? [Re: HCW]
      #22139 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:56 PM

31/1145 UTC 20.0N 63.2W T5.5/5.5 Frances

31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0 Frances

cat 4? she is strengthing right?


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Site Performance [Re: Ricreig]
      #22140 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:56 PM

the closer the storm gets...the more people will jam up these boards.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Ricreig]
      #22141 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:57 PM

Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)

I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.


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mikeG
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cool sat shot! [Re: john03]
      #22142 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:00 PM

sat shot

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Kal
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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22143 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:02 PM

Mike-I love the model animator concept. It'll be great to see a visual model trend history, as opposed to raw numbers and archived images. Kudos.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22144 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM

That will be a great tool!

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Re: Landfall? [Re: HCW]
      #22145 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM

In reply to HCW...
My goodness, just look at how bad that UKMET initialization is! It is WELL north and east of even the last NHC intialization. I really can't buy into the UKMET track when the initial position is that far off. The GFDL is a little closer but seems to really be an outlier by taking the storm right up into South Carolina.

The 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad to me. It basically takes the storm into NE Florida, which seems reasonable given the pattern at this time.


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Justin in Miami
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Motion [Re: Kal]
      #22146 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:10 PM

i still think this storm is goind more wnw than w...minus a few wobbles left and right

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22147 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:13 PM

It has to go wnw or else it bumps into the islands.
The forward speed is what has me concerned. Was this speed predicted? I think landfall may be sooner than originally thought.


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Steve
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Kal]
      #22148 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:13 PM

Thanks Mike - great work so far. No doubt the system's gonna crash at some point, but hopefully you'll have it back up and running soon thereafter. For the west movement folks, zoom in on your favorite GOES loop and you will see the system overall heading is WNW or north of due west, but it's not moving west. Frances is climbing in lat:

Check:

NOAA Vis

ORCA global infrared

Both depictions clearly show Frances attaining lat (pushing 21). DT (I think it was) believed this would be temporary as Frances felt the nudge from Gaston. We'll see.

Steve

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john03
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will it look the same? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22149 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:15 PM

this s floyd in 1999... 1999 September 14, 12:59 UT

fixing to see Frances soon!


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Colleen A.
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Kevin]
      #22150 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:17 PM

Watched the Tropical Update at 2:50pm and Cheryl Lemke said that a "gradual wnw turn is expected in the next couple of days". Well, if this sucker's still moving at 16mph in 48 hours, that is 770 miles further west before it STARTS that turn. Are we even that far from the Bahamas?

About the NASA comment: I realize that there's windows of opportunity. I made a general comment. I never said that I was a rocket scientist.

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bobbistorm
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agreed [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22151 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:20 PM

The plan was for it to start a wnw movement. As said if it doesnt it would crash into Cuba. Which is inside the cone but not expected. Not concerned with where it goes today as opposed to 3 days from now. Concerned a window opens but a narrow one and slams shut again and turns more west.

Will see.


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Ricreig
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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22152 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM

Quote:

Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)

I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.


Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.

Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!

--------------------
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A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Landfall? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22153 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM

No Colleen but you are a darn good weather person who has helped many see more clearly.

LOL the so-called rocket scientists botch up quite a bit.


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LI Phil
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SJ Radar [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22154 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:23 PM

Seeing these things on radar after watching so many sat loops is always a refreshing change. No matter where she goes, it's not going to be good. PR is VERY LUCKY as are the Islands. The Bahamas...that's a whole other story. Guess they're the first in line for the direct hit. Let's hope they make out OK

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john03
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cool pic [Re: Ricreig]
      #22155 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:25 PM

evry seen something like this?

coooool pic....its a full moon over three storms


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Colleen A.
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Redbird]
      #22156 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:30 PM

Thanks, Redbird. I just like poking fun at myself, at least that way I don't take it personal. ;-)

I am anxiously awaiting the 5pm update, and then after THAT is over, I'm heading over to ESPN Fantasy Football to do my live draft at 6pm while trying to whip up dinner with a twitch of my nose around 8pm when Thing 1 and Thing 2 come home from football practice.

Sorry if that was OT, but I'm coming down with a case of Hurricanitis so I'm not quite myself. ;-)

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john03
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here latest color sat [Re: john03]
      #22157 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM

here it comes

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