Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
To help those of us (ok… me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Assumptions
1) remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on Advisory 26A
I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.
What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
|
|
Quote:
For the life of me, I see nothing that indicates all this carolina, georgia, top of florida stuff.
This hurricane will wreak unbelievable havoc on the bahamas. Sure hope those people, when they had the chance, left.
we get it, rick.. miami-mobile, nothing else possible. -HF
i am trying not to be an alarmist.. but i agree with you on this one.. Miami better pay attention.. ULL my bonny, this is continuing to the west.. all day i am looking for the north turn... waiting waiting.. the poor bahamas...
-------------------- -----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
well, i do agree that it's getting stronger this evening. eye more circular, latest IR show a solid red ring that is also nearly symmetrical. if it's going to make a cat 5 run, it's going to do it soon.
HF 2329z31august
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
HF, I'm sure you've seen the current discussion (excerpt):
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE ...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.
The qyestion is; Why do you suppose the is favoring the left side after 72hrs? Is there some admission that it is moving West rapidly and not likely to be able to turn fast enough to follow the or even the UKMET which has been doing a good job so far?
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
Now I'm not going to be crazy and say will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove off her almost due west track. I say forget about the trough(s) because I just don't see them having an impact on her. I'm starting to think that the straites may not be out of the question. Now I'm sure I will be singing a different tune tomorrow but that is how I see it right now.
ShawnS
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> Now I'm not going to be crazy and say will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove off her almost due west track.
Actually, you'd need the mother of all strong ridges (not weakening ones) to keep this on a line towards Texas (or wherever you're thinking). Don't discount the trofs either. LOL
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
|
|
Quote:
First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...
-------------------- -----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Basically every evening the models shift back to the south and west - S FL to C FL.... then in the morning when I get up they shift back to the north and east N Fl, GA, SC.... I think this has been going on for several days now... here is the key, once they can finally agree during both the morning and evening runs, then we have a true trend.... so if tomorrow in the morning expect the models to trend back to the north and east.... now if they don't ..... and they are still south and west.....then maybe they'll be on to something.... until then everyone on the east coast is sitting on a time bomb, I'm going to have carpal tunnel in my neck from all this back and forthness.... but the bottom line, this is one storm I want to track from a distance..... absolulely no wish casting from me... and I still am sticking with my Kennedy Space Center hit..... we had some TDY guys at Stennis today all pack up and head back to Kennedy to get the personal affairs in order....
|
Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
|
|
This is an old discussion; from 5am this morning NOT 5PM. Please check and don't confuse people who are looking for current info.
|
SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
Quote:
What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance
No trouble. I will update this graphic as changes their forecast. While several models have changed, opted to not change their coordinates until a later Advisory (apparently they want to review a few more runs). Here is the 11am image (ADV27)
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
My THINKING was the furthest west would be central gulf coast. I KNOW SHE IS NOT COMING HERE!!!!!!! It is too late in the season for Texas to get a tropical system unless it is homegrown.
ShawnS
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
But there was a different path per Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
-------------------- ________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
|
|
Yes, this is definitely not the storm to wishcast.
I admit that tropical storms can be exciting and all, some cleanup, no deaths (although, Gaston was another story).
But a hurricane, CAT III+ at landfall, would leave thousands homeless, and more than a dozen dead, with billions of dollars in damage. At this point it's not the question of IF it will hit the Southeast, it's a question of who would it hurt the LEAST if it were to hit.
|
RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
|
|
dude - great stuff for us laymen. Kudo's to you!
Now, if you could throw in storm surge and move to a WPB to Sarasota senario, I'd love to see it.
|
BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
|
|
Nope, not a stretch at all. Any prediction of landfall right now would be a SWAG. You can choose your word for S, but I'll use Silly Wild Ass Guess.
Even the doesn't know, don't you think they would be telling us if they did? Has anyone read the recent discussions? There are still a lot of variables and unknowns, and we might not even have a good idea what is going to happen until Thursday. That is where a similarity with Andrew and Floyd comes into play, both of those were cliff hangers up until about two days out.
Bill
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 2302Z
Huccicane Hunters sent this at 7:07 pm. If somebody already put this up, sorry in advance.
|
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...
trinjabe you are correct. Miami is way in play. If anyone dounts this look at that 84 hour eta and look at the euro and so on and so on and look at the latest coming back west as will the which is run on . Miami is far from stretch but jacksonville isnt either.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
I've been looking for (sea, lake, overland surges from hurricanes) models, off and on, for an hour or so. this may be one of the better ones.
I'll still try to find ones that show surge for CAT I, II, III etc., but as of yet, no luck.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
|
|
one thing i have learnt on my two days on here... METEROLOGY is like chiropractic medicine... (no disrespect to the weather men who keep us "prepared"
cool site!
-------------------- -----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
|