jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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If that is a north turn, then it is the most abrupt I have ever seen. The last few frames are a due north motion. Must be a jog.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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are you refering to the ones that take it to the carolinas??
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Local update. Schools have a half day tomorrow and closed Friday. Evacuations start in the a.m along the coast. WPB tv stations going to 24/7 broadcasting. My neighborhood has almost half the homes shuttered already. Shelters open at 2 p.m tomorrow. Just saw a line of 72 people getting propane. Yes, I actuallly counted them, just had to. Winds have gone NE and have gusted to 26 mph in the last hour. The overall circulation of the storm system has even started to create some shower formation off the coast of the Palm Beaches. This is an indirect effect. Looks like this area could take a huge hit if the track keeps moving south and west. Watches to come soon.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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May be the reformation and apparent shrinking of the eye that gives the appearance of a north movement. We will se in a few more frames. I can't get an updated satelite.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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I see what you mean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
The last 3 frames it seems to be going due NW, not WNW.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1859Z
B. 21 DEG 53 MIN N
70 DEG 34 MIN W
lat is .3 south (21.8)
lon is.1 east (70.4)
vortex messagewas 59 minutes after the advisory. so it would appear that is is moving se?? am i not understanding the vortex or the time right?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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yep...should the northern turn not begin soon, the Carolina solutions look pretty suspect.
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Jason Kelley
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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The Vortex uses a different kind of system. There is a formula to use to extrapolate where the center is from the vortex message. From what you gave, it would be around where they said in the advisory.
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fred08
Unregistered
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for some odd reason i think there will be a more west turn in less 48-56 hrs and a slow down in 36hrs or less...if it passes south of Long island , bhm....think we may see GOM entrance....possble panhandle landfall then..... the ULL to west appears to be gone.....trough over gulf coast is weak and looks to be lifting some what due north.... if lived south of I-4....i would leave.....and head north towards macon, ga..... this strom can be twice as bad as ...just do to overall SIZE of storm... didn't have time to grow, before land impact...plus there was a strong front over NW fl panhadle pushing ene......this time we have a strong high off near bermuda and it's not giving in...and a weak front
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Satellite
You be the judge..
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Doombot!
Unregistered
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5PM update has it moving more WNW across FL.
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Hurricane Forecast/Advisory Number 32
Statement as of 21:00Z on September 01, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeast and central
Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Hurricane Watch remains is in effect the northwest Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast
of the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast tonight.
Hurricane center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 941 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 55se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt.......120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt.......160ne 130se 80sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..275ne 160se 160sw 275nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
at 01/1800z center was located near 21.8n 70.5w
forecast valid 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 80sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 100sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 75sw 100nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
Outlook valid 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.0n 71.0w
next advisory at 02/0300z
forecaster Avila
****
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BillD at work
Unregistered
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I think it is just the eye reforming, with maybe a slight more lean to the north, but not NW. Give it anoher hour or two.
Bill
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Keep in mind, the site has sat updates as often as every 5 - 10 minutes, in addition, it looks like the entire sat pic is shifting north slightly, not just the storm... possibly a small wobble in the sat causing the seeming northward jog?
we'll know more in an hour or two... paitence is the best medicine. 
Mark
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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It sure looks like a northern turn. I'm seeing light at the end of the tunnel for the first time today. It's faint, but it's a light caused by the elongation n/s and the northern jog.
The question is is it a jog or a trend?
On a side note, the new track is in. It's an extension, but a slow down of the storm. It now has it coming in at 115 knts, but taking 24 hours to go 90 miles.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the now hedging on a FL landfall?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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BillD at work
Unregistered
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At 11 AM the said Hurricane Watches tonight or tomorrow morning, so they are sticking to their plan.
Bill
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Probably just a jog, or eye-wall replacement cycle. We will know in an hour or two.
thought this was an interesting quote from the ....
"Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day"
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the now hedging on a FL landfall?
8PM, 11PM or very early tomorrow for watches.
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BobVee
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Florida
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Lake County Schools will be out on Friday. All extracurricular activity has been canceled. Home Depot in Clermont had about 300 in line to buy up to 15 sheets of plywood at 11 AM. Me thinks it is all gone.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TONIGHT
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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