Brad
Unregistered
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Yes, the scenario is a possibility. Brian Norcross discussed that yesterday afternoon, the possibility of the storm moving NW or even N and then W just above Palm Beach. Apparently, the picked up on that possibility.
But of course, there are lots of possibilities at this point, and only 1 model (I think) is suggesting that one.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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I'll stick with the forecast track. It could be either side of the track.
No one should make such an important decision about evacuating etc based on what one or two models say the storm "might" do.
At the end of the day, the has gotten the track right much more often than they have it wrong.
There are too many folks who need to start moving away from the coast very soon.The big problem is where do these people go?
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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SEEMS TO ME THAT NO ONE IS QUITE SURE HOW THIS RIDGE IS GOING TO INTERACT WITH UNTIL IT ACTUALLY OCCURS. ALL THIS TECHNOLOGY AND STILL 400+ MILES FOR ERROR
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Yes, the is the only one forecasting that; i brought it up because from experience the AVN, , , and are all quite accurate, and 3 of those 4 are forecasting the hurricane to miss Florida, although not by much
i think by the time it is east of West Palm Beach, it will probably be about 80 miles offshore by Saturday morning
East of Cape Canaveral by 40 miles by Saturday afternoon
East of Daytona by 15-20 miles by Saturday evening
and making landfall between Jacksonville and South Carolina around 4am to 11 am on Sunday
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Forcast are nice and all and I do support the , but a forcast is just that. A prediction as to where something will go, there is not a clear path yet. Remember charlie was supposed to hit Tampa, and went in further south and east than predicted. Who knows this could go further north or further south. Too much time left in this game.
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John G.
Unregistered
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Viewing the recent loop, it seems to me that the storm as a whole is on a due westerly course, while the eye has rotated a bit to the northwest of center. This could either indicate some minor shear, or even a bit of drag from the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, even though far to the south. I think tracking the eye alone could be a bit misleading.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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we will most certainly know by Friday exactly where it will go
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I don't believe moves NW until after crossing FL. Some models are showing this possibility....
http://hardcoreweather.com
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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so you think S. FL?
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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I agree with Rabbit. Between North Florida and South Carolina.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I expect the track to be shifted further west and a little south at 5pm based on the fast west movement today.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Home Depot in Fort Pierce appears to be orderly today-people are getting prepared in earnest.
1/4 inch ply, 1/2 inch ply is available but there is a waiting line.
I hope just blows away. 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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FRI NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SAT
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15
FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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Above is an excerpt from NWS Charleston coastal forecast as of 9:42 this morning. The forecast for the Beaufort SC area is for "very windy" conditions Sat nite, Sunday.
I am very confused. The NWS local forecast didn't pick up on winds for Gaston until shortly before they were on top of us. I realize "possible" means just that, but is there not more confidence in the forecast track at this hour, than in the last several days, because the models have begun to converge??
As of last night, I was packing to leave the coast (Hilton Head Island), as early as tomorrow am, to avoid the gridlock of mandatory evacuation, which was pretty widely rumored to be coming on Friday. This morning, I adopted more of a "wait and see" thought process. Frankly, moving inland could be putting me closer to the storm, if the track verifies.
Anyone smarter than me have any suggestions, other than moving to Kansas?? 
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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NHC uses a consensus of their most reliable model data after taking all observational and synoptic data into account. This is almost beginning to sound like a discussion about where people "wish" it to go.
The big question I can't answer is: If and when the authorities tell people to evacuate, where do they advise them to go? We all know how many people evacuated Tampa/St. Pete only to end up in the path of the storm. Bottom line is to be prepared for days and possibly weeks w/o electricity.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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Just come to Summerville and take cover with me, this place can take a beating 
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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if it keeps moving at 16 by friday morning it will hit land...all the mets are saying the thinks it gonna slow down but hasn't done so yet. remember they also thought it was going to turn toward the north also
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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watching the IR loops is still wobbling along at about 285-290 degrees IMO... no NW turn that I can detect..... still looks to be at the same speed as well...
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Kansas has a ton of tornadoes Bill, keep that in mind.
All joking aside, if they do call for an evacuation over your way, get out of dodge ASAP. I don't know if you were there for Floyd, but I-16 clogged to the point of becoming a potential death trap.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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What the heck would anyone use 1/4 inch plywood for with a Cat 4 storm... heck, I live on the beach in Biloxi, I usually use 1/2 plywood to cover all my windows, but if I knew there was a Cat 4 heading my way, I would upgrade and use 5/8 in for all my south facing windows... provided of course its still available...
then again I guess they could put two or three sheets together to cover one window...... that's better than nothing..
Edited by Frank P (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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THE ULL WHICH HAD BEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS OPEND UP AND IS NO LONGER A PROBLEM...IT HAS SEEMINGLY CREATED A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM THE GOM...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO VISIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, IN FACT I THINK IT IS FURTHER WEST NOW THATN EVER,,,THUS HAS NO REASON TO MOVE NORTH THAT I CAN SEE...IF THIS CONTINUES TO VISUALLY REPRESENT ITSELF. I'M WITH JASON KELLEY THAT THIS WILL BLOW ACROSS SO. FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BEFORE TURNING AS THAT IS WHERE THE AIR FLOW SHOWS IT WILL GO.
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doug
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