scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Very tough forcast to give especialy after 72 hours. First with the models we seem them change from run to run so dont accept a path a model shows cause it might change the next run. Can it be right? Of course but wait to see if the model initalizes that positon right to start, then see if it has the last 3-4 runs and shows the same path. If its been on track then that run gets favored but not set in stone. has generally been off to the N of the current track. has been just a tad to the NE over the last 24 hours as is most of the guidance. The tropical model suites have shifted every time the does and the ETA has been 12 hours behind the following tracks it has 12 hours earlier. and the have performed well during the first 24 hours but then diverage with the more N and the more WNW-NW motion,both bring on a decent clip that its going now. Difference between the 2 after 24 hours is the been right while the nudes each run alittle to the sw due to it having to initialize the next run more sw at the start. The UKMET has adjust more NE but was too far N in its ooz run last night to today.
Overall its a clear path to the WNW up to ner Grand Bahama Island. Then the tricky part comes, most models show eigther a drift to the W or a 24 hour turn to just N of W making landfall. Since this could make landfall as early as Sat morning that would be near Boca Raton. But also it could stay up and parrelle the coast near Melbourne then move NNW and head up to Hilton Head by Sunday night or Monday morning. Since that is after 72 hours i wont give that my offical forcast but since I have to go out on a limb here I would agree with the current path with most models up to Grand Bahama island then move towards the coast near Jupitar or Stuart florida on Saturday evening. I think it might go onshore Sat night near there but its at the 84-96 hour period from now. This is in between the and Ukmet solutions. This wont be a Andrew system path but like Clark on here said,, more like eigther a Floyd (but alot closer) or Erin from 1995 and move slowly onshore wnw late Sat evening or night. Winds near Cat 4. Watch might go up by 11pm tonight, if not earlier from I would say Dade county up thru Palm beach. scottsvb ( will post more from time to time)
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Here's another number for you.
The Orlando Convention & Visitors Bureau has developed a hotel hot line to assist those with evacuation needs.
The number is 407-354-5555. It's running until 11 p.m. tonight. Re-opening at 7 a.m. tomorrow and staying open until all the rooms are full or weather shuts it down.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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sorry about spelling. Lack of sleep.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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P. AF966 1306A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 1712Z. INNER EYEWALL OPEN SE-SW.
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION OF OUTER WALL
from last vortex i got....just trying to figureout whats going on....did dry air sneak in? saw max fl winds of 120...
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Eyewall replacement cycle is underway....
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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So can we expect watches for Florida at 5am tomorrow ?
-------------------- Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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TROY
Unregistered
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I think that may be the south part of the eyewall...isnt that typically less powerful
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anany
Unregistered
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NOT TRUE.
Don't spread rumours!
Cat 1 does not send storm surge to I-95!
sc
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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For Volusia County residents: community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Post deleted by alan
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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School Closed Friday for Orange and Seminole County Schools. Volusia County Schools closed Thursday and Friday..
-------------------- Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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mikeG
Unregistered
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does anyon know if there is access the drifting buoy?
saw this in 2pm adv.
A DRIFTING BUOY
NEAR THE CORE OF REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB...
28.56 INCHES.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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No, I think you can expect them at 5pm tonight due to the amount of people that will have to evacuate.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Before saying something isn't true, please explain how you know it not to be true?
I said where I got my information about storm surge. I'm just relaying information from someone who did the study.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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For people interested in storm surge, click here.
This one happens to be for MLB, but you can get any county.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 011849
97779 18494 40296 85600 75900 19012 70762 /5759
RMK AF984 1506A OB 01
noaa3 is also out flying
RMK AF966 1306A OB 12 is also out....
well see if she has an eye repla. going on and if it will make cat 5 or not!
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John C
Unregistered
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Here is the storm surge atlas from NOAA for brevard county and it is not a CAT 1 a Cat5 don't even reach I-95 in most places.
Link to storm surge atlas
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Hurricane is heading wwnw, at least to me, and is on the south side of the projected path. Wouldn't suprise me to see a REAL shift with the models more to the left. However, the hurricane center and experts are VERY good....amazing...
Still think it will hit the Miami Hurricanes...
Maybe they will rename the team "frances"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This was just breaking news on TB's BayNews9:
*MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY BEGIN TOMORROW***
I would imagine that HWatches will go up at 5pm tonight if this is what we're looking at right now.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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john03
Unregistered
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MIAMI (AP) Thousands of Floridians are being advised to flee ahead of Hurricane .
Just weeks after Hurricane devastated parts of the state, another Category 4 hurricane is bearing down on Florida. A hit from would make it the worst double hurricane strike on one state in at least a century.
Martin County plans to urge up to 75-hundred residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow. More evacuation orders are likely along Florida's East Coast.
NASA says the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral will be closed tomorrow and Friday to allow workers time to board up their homes and evacuate if necessary.
National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield says he can't emphasize enough how powerful is. He says he doesn't see any sign of weakening.
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