zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I have been watching sat loops, model loops, spaghetti models, etc. and now I dizzy and probably a little sea sick. I began feeling a little better today (here in Charleston) as the models began converging on a single solution, and now they are diverging again. This was a beautiful storm to look at over the open ocean, but I now ready to see this one go away. It looks like the models are beginning to shift toward the north again. still has not made a turn, but I will definately keep a watchful eye on this one. Is a run up the entire east coast possible with this storm?
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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And we, or at least I, appreciate everybody's insight greatly. I also want to thank John, Mike, Ed and additional moderaters LI Phil and HankFrank for helping make this forum a great place for people interested in the tropics to express opinions and ask questions. Thank You.
As for the storm, it definitely looks as if it's eye-wall cycle is ending and the is getting better organized, which is bad news for all of us in Florida and the Bahamas, or more specifically, the future strike point(s) and surrounding areas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
Edited by ShaggyDude (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 AM)
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spook
Unregistered
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Remember betsy in 65,almost same area,moved nw,stopped moved sw,then west thru the keys,nw to neworleans.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here is a quote from the latest tropical discussion which suggests furthur strengthening is beginning to occur:
>>>THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...COLDER THAN ABOUT -70C...ARE ONCE AGAIN
WRAPPING ENTIRELY AROUND THE EYE AND IT SEEMS THAT THE
SHORT-TERM TREND IS FOR THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STATUS
OR EVEN GAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 29C NEAR THE STORM BECOME INCREASINGLY WARMER NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST...AS HIGH AS 32C...SO ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
THAT THIS HURRICANE WILL LOSE MUCH STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TO THE
NW<<<<<<
--Lou
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MikeG
Unregistered
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this is a water vapor loop..... i been using for a while.... think is best out there....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_wv_loop.html
note The -24°C line (blue) of the GOES-12 water vapor channel (Ch3)
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Thanks Jason, I agree for sure. Many uncertainties remain but even with the forecast for now me and you would both see at least an increase in wind and thunderstorms (you more so than me), but any shift in the track and it could be sunny, or we could have a hurricane knocking along the Panhandle.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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I dont think at the moment anything is set in stone. I personally an not seeing any signifigant turn to the north. maybe slightly but nothing that would steer it to sc area. My personal opinion is that the eye will go very close just above occechobee and eventually downgrade into the gulf after crossing over. Im probably way off but thats what im seeing. lets wait and see what the latest says shortly.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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this goes with the cloud tops.... look at yellows
http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_ir_loop.html
IR color tops
she gaining....
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The forecasts are known for their excellence in these parts of the tropics. They just know the dynamics very well, after a while everything becomes second nature
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM)
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CantoreFan
Unregistered
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Cantore's in Daytona...
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay Recon has departed for now. Could someone refresh my memory on the depths of the ocean ahead of the track. I seem to remember a place called the "Tongue of the Ocean" that's over 5000ft deep. Just wondering how a deep water pass would compare to a shallow water, i.e. south of the Bahamas, pass in terms of intensity.
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eligrace
Unregistered
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nothing else needs to be said-he is where the action is!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I heard the 5:00 PM news conference on the radio. They addressed it there. Said they did not issues watching because it was slowing down but will probably do it tonight or in the morning advisory.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Exception: Floyd. He was Florida's "shield" for that one. Floyd redux? More to come...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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I have a question for some pro's or someone who know's more about models than I do. Ok, we all know that strong hurricanes, (and Im pretty sure you can classify this a strong hurricane) they tend to strengthen the ridge thats above them correct? My question is, Do the models understand this or are they able to predict if this is occuring. I really dont understand how they are turning so far north. Do they think the weak trough in the east right now will weaken the ridge and cause a turn? The trough looks to be lifting out quickly and becoming zonal, so wouldnt that mean less effect on the ridge? Any insight would be very helpful, Thanks!
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MikeG
Unregistered
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this is another shot that will blow everyone's mind!!!!!
note....where the shallow water is...light green...
can you picture this???? yesterday
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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no more on 97L (for now at least).. but 98L has scored its first with a 'too weak'.
inner eyewall has collapsed in the last couple of hours. outer eyewall slowly contracting inward. pressure will probably bottom out again tonight.. but it's been fairly steady within 3mb or so of 938 for the last 36 hours, eyewall cycles or no.
been thinking on this... storm isn't a floyd-size storm (those big atlantic storms tend to weaken to cat 2/3 as they near the east coast).. not a tightly wound /andrew type storm either... size is about middling. i'd expect it to maintain intensity fairly well to the coast, and probably a good ways inland.
HF 0112z02september
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I heard the 5:00 PM news conference on the radio. They addressed it there. Said they did not issues watching because it was slowing down but will probably do it tonight or in the morning advisory.
That's not quite true. Max Mayfield said no watches were issued at 5pm because recon reports indicated that the windfield had contracted a bit, giving the forecasters a bit more time for decision making.
--Lou
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WeatherWoman
Unregistered
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No, don't do that!!! My husband is there!!!
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Oh! Sorry- but you know what I mean.
--------------------
Kelly
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