bob07
Unregistered
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is Hurricane going to be a cat 5 when it hits florida?
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HCRay
Unregistered
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Fly home no later than Friday afternoon. Most inbound flights will halt soon after that. A road warriors advice.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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As to the airport: They are closing OIA at noon tomorrow.
From Orlando Business JOurnal:
OIA to cease flights at noon on Friday
With Hurricane expected to impact flight operations at Orlando International Airport, the air carriers have agreed to cease passenger flights at noon on Sept 3.
High wind conditions are expected to affect transport of passengers between the main terminal and airline gate areas via the automated people mover system.
Additionally, all domestic passengers holding reservations for flights prior to noon on Sept. 3 need to arrive three hours prior to their departure.
For further information on flight schedules up to that time, please contact the airline directly. Normal flight operations will resume when weather permits and cleanup operations are completed.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I don't have any concrete info, but I would have to say that flights out of Orlando will be grounded by 12 noon Sat. The track keeps wiggling a little here and there, but most of the guesses are eye coming ashore around 8am Sat morning on east coast, but keep in mind tropical force winds are far outward of that, meaning the airport will be hit with those sort of winds long before that. I just don't see the airport being open.
By the way, I'm working on a program in my spare time here waiting for hurricane tracking. Does anyone have sites that report hurricane model data and tracking information in text format for download? I know some people were looking at feeds, though I don't know if those are public or not. If so, PM me so I can check them out. I'd love to have some way to pull live data from the web into the program without me having to go hunt them down from 2000 sources. Thanks...
Londovir
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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I understand that if the storm stalls for the weekend, it would turn toward the north.
What is the reasoning behind the thought that it would stall?
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Fredric
Unregistered
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My sources at Northwest Airlines say they are planning to cease operations at Orlando airport at noon tomorrow. I think that's a little early but they are taking no chances either. It doesn't look good at all for Saturday thru Sunday for any flights out of or into Orlando. At this point they are planning to resume flights on Monday the 6th.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Also a note that mike just added. We and the have said it will slow some when turning allittle more nw, but then most models then push onshore from 36-48 hours from noon today anywhere from WPB - Melbourne. So expect a turn back to the wnw later friday into saturday and onshore. It could basically move just N of due west Friday night into saturday then WNW across the state.
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pjoo
Unregistered
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OIA just announced that all flights will be cancelled after 1200 noon and you must be at the airport 3 hrs ahead of your scheduled departure time
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Jason, Looking forward to your analysis. Im still going with a landfall 50 miles on either side of West Palm Beach. Probably at the strength she is now 145mph. Looks like either an or brief dry air entrainment is what contributed to her weakening. Im concerned she might bomb like because of the very warm waters in the Northern Bahamas. Noticed alot of 00Z models shift west and put the N Gulf Coast at risk. Havent looked at 12Z models but Im about to. Are you anymore concerned about the Gulf Coast now? Im begining to think I should start preparing tomorrow and Saturday. Might be a good idea.
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bob07
Unregistered
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Sources are saying that could be worse than Andrew, does anybody think that could happen?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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See attachment
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Would someone please post a map of South FL for me ?
--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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I dunno about a Cat 5, solid Cat 4 or Cat 3 sounds more likely. If she can stop replacing her eyewall every 12 hours then possibly because there is very little shear and lots of warm water, and high heat content near the Northern Bahamas and off the coast of Fl. I dunno about rapid deepening though, usually storms that blow up before landfall are small, compact hurricanes ie. , Andrew. But ya never know. Just have to keep watching. Thoughts anyone???
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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The models are really starting to come together. I think we may have finally received our answer.
ShawnS
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am somewhat doubtful that she makes it to Cat 5, since she really should have done so already...but I am not going to say that she won't.
And yes...I am very concerned about the possibilty of a reemergence over the Gulf and second landfall...
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Jason Kelley
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Frances, Floyd and Andrew comparison graphic
I wish I knew how far the Hurricane strength winds radiated from the center of these coordinates. That would have been an awesome visual.
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Mark Bendiksen
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Forgive me lack of knowledge on this subject, but I live in central Texas and have never experienced a hurricane first-hand. I am scheduled to fly into Orlando (from Houston) a week from Friday (9/10). Is it reasonable to expect that Orlando airport operations will be back on schedule by that time? 
Thanks in advance for your assistance. All of you who live in Florida are sincerely in my prayers right now.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I don't think it will ever get into the GOM.
ShawnS
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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How did you get that landfall location? It's much more north than the has it. Is it simply staying on the angle she has been on for the past few hours?
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Their track is much more NNW than the official track. Sorry for the Joe B fans out there, but he is dead wrong on this one. The is even further west at 12Z. Still doesn't take it completly across the state however, but does have hurricane force winds all the way to near the AL/GA/FL borders.
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