alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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the latest advisory is out and shows almost more of a NW movement, although they are still calling it a wnw movement.
.4 degrees north .5 degrees west from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am in the office and getting ready for the night...
For anyone coming from S or Central FL up our way to evacuate, we are going to start hourly updates tomorrow just for you guys...we are the NBC affiliate for the areas between TLH and PNS, so if you want info, we will do our best to have it on the air.
Thoughts to follow as I get started with analysis....
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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949? Wow, what a jump!
They said that it should turn NW in the next 24hrs but, again, I think it already has made that turn.
ShawnS
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CASps
Unregistered
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Any input............ If you had a choice to be almost a direct hit by the eye or further away but NE quadrant.... which one? Clermont or Apopka... single story or two story in Apopka
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john03
Unregistered
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looking at sat.... looks like eye wall has took a hit..... eye is almost gone....could this be a major eye wall replacement going on......also i think she has slowed!!!!!! last 1hr appears to slowed and maybe a little north movment.... recon only had 95mx fl winds while ago....pressure way up.....what is she doing?
she might fall to cat 3 at 5adv....
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Here is the midday update from my friend Thomas:
Looking at the latest satellite images and RECON data CAT 4 continues on a 285-290 heading at approximately 13 mph. Outflow looks excellent except I see a little impingement on the WNW side, maybe a little shear and/or dry air. Overall continues with a slow pressure fall and increase in wind speed. She may flirt with CAT 5 status for a while later today.
Looking at all of the models, virtually all have come further west with a landfall somewhere along the Florida coast. Some of my colleagues that I respect very much still forecast a probable miss for the Florida east coast. Of course I hope that they are correct and while I understand their thinking I think that chance is virtually nil now.
It appears at the moment that Palm Beach is the bullseye, the southern end of my predicted landfall window. BUT my original forecast landfall of Ft. Lauderdale-Miami may ultimately still verify. Also in my opinion a westward track through the Florida Keys and/or the Florida Straits is more probable then a NW-N track east of Florida.
A landfall at Palm beach would mean a probable CAT 4-3 hurricane across the inland central peninsula including the Orlando metro area, a region with millions of people and unfathomable billions of $$$ of property and then possibly into south Georgia. At this moment it's to early to tell where would exit at into the Gulf Of Mexico "if" she comes ashore in the Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window. My guess would be pretty much a straight line to Naples-Fort Myers, then on to Texas, with a lesser chance of an exit at Venice-Sarasota then on to Louisiana.
That's my .02 for today but what do I know?!
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Rapid Scan Sat Ops are the bomb....
From the regular 15/30 min imagery I can see the "NW Turn"...but if you look at the GOES 12 Rapid Scan you can see that it definately a wobble...maybe a course resumption slightly more n, but still averaging WNW.
Eyewall replacement just completed, so we should see the pressures begin to fall again in the next few hours.
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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loop
i agree it looks in the last frames to be going nw more than the wnw but the eye starts to cloud over.. i think it is reforming again?? time will tell
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Attached is a track comparison.
Open attachment to view.
-Bev
-------------------- Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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No disrespect, but a possible TEXAS landfall? Gimmie a break! Nooooooooooo Way that will materialize!
ShawnS
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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from Accuweather:
"Category 4 Hurricane , as of 2 p.m. EDT, is centered at 23.8 north and 74.4 west, 410 miles east-southeast of lower Florida east coast. is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust 86 mph. The central pressure is 949 millibars (28.02 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.
Frances is moving west-northwest at about 13 mph. The thing to watch is movement and speed. If starts to slow down then this will buy more time for Florida and could allow the system to turn more northwesterly, away from Florida. The system will be affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at this morning and midday say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow to slow down and take on more of a northwesterly turn, meaning Georgia and the Carolinas are in line for a landfalling hurricane. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast."
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I'm still hanging with Joe B. Maybe a bit out of desperation. I'm giving him to Great Abaco to see if his requirements are met. I'm not ready to jump off that ship yet. Never the less, boarding up the house this afternoon no matter what.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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The second paragraph to the Accuweather statement they've had up all morning, I think. The first paragraph is what is always updated with the new advisory.
ShawnS
That's true, but I'm guessing not a lot of people read it.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 02:18 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Quick review of the water vapor seems to indicate that is taking a hit wit some southerly shear, that is eminating from that pesky and still slowly retreating ULL that is now out to about 85W...that could also explain the NW movements of the last three hours...3hr coord's storm moved .4 n and .5 w...6hr .6 n and .9 w. so the official is still wnw...probably a temporary adjustment as the upper air currents are more e/w just ahead.
-------------------- doug
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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02/1730 UTC 9.8N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 98
02/1745 UTC 18.9N 41.6W TOO WEAK 97
02/1745 UTC 23.8N 74.2W T6.0/6.5
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4622
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a comment about the SC/NC scenario, the window is almost closed on it. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely either. Actually, I think It may shift a bit more left even. Right now its going through another eyewall replacement cycle best I can tell, so you really can't get a good idea of "jogs" when that's happening.
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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
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Here is another track comparison.
See Attached.
Sorry for how crude it looks but it was quickly thrown together just for reference.
Thanks a bunch!
Edited by Artsy Fartsy (Thu Sep 02 2004 02:26 PM)
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Here's another one I just jury rigged up at home via Photoshop. Apologize for quality, trying to keep it simple for dial up users at home, and the original scales weren't linearly compatible.
Click the attachment to view.
Londovir
And thank you too!
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 02:26 PM)
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J Thomas
Unregistered
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I am scheduled to fly out of Orlando International Airport on Saturday at 12 noon. How likely is it that my flight will be cancelled? Where will be at 12 noon on Saturday?
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Just a question I have. Would the track really change? Let's say it stays on the WNW track, which I still think is more NW, I could see the track maybe switching to the left some. BUT, with the eye replacements continually happening to the NW, wouldn't that just more less even things out? This I need help on.
ShawnS
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