Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Damage Reports coming in from Bahamas via a.m. radio cell phone reports. I'll post them in the "Disaster Forum".
Long and Cat Islands extensive Damage, no word from San Salvador. Bahamian Govt. calling this a National Disaster, hoping for help from U.S. but doubt it might be coming due to likely strike on FL.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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These wobbles are driving me nuts. One time I think it's going one way and a few frames later it looks like it is going another way.
ShawnS
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Robin
Unregistered
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Mike, the circles in your graphic appear to be much too small. In fact are they based on diameter instead of radius? Clearly the 185 mile circle should be several times larger than the 80 mile circle, but it is not. What's up?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Winds down to 135 mph at 11pm Advisory...now looking at a Cat 3 at landfall.
Edited by Jamiewx (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:42 AM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Hurricane center located near 24.5n 75.4w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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definately a weakening trend now
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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
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A quick note about evacuations. I had business in Ft. Myers today. On the ride home tonight there was a steady stream of westbound traffic along State Road 80. However gasoline was scarce all the way from Ft. Myers to Lake Placid. I probably passed 30-40 gas stations and about 75% were out of gas. The ones that did have gas had long lines.
The supply will get even thinner in the hours before hits. I hate to think what it's going to be like after the storm passes and there's no electricity for days.
If you've been thinking of evacuating and haven't done so yet, think about how far you're going to get on the gas that's in your tank now.
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Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well appears some shear has given a more ragged a appearence compared to previous days. But shear tendency is on the decline thus expect better conditions over northern Bahama islands,although don't believe it will go away totally but conditions should improve some and unfortunately this will also be over and near gulf stream.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Winds down to 135 mph at 11pm Advisory
That's great news. Still a CAT IV, but just barely, and forecast to drop to a III tomorrow. As beautiful and scary as these monsters can be, I pray for a drop to a II before landfall, but that doesn't appear likely.
Personally, I think is nearing the end of her eyewall replacement cycle, and will regain IV status tomorrow, but since what I think usually results in the opposite, maybe I should root for a V, then it'll become a II...never going to root for a CAT V, especially one that would threaten Mobile Bay.
Vigilance is the key...watching up from here more than 1,000 it's hard for me to fathom the emotions going on down there, but if you guys can try to get some good sleep tonight...do it. Tomorrow is going to be absolutely insane. (Humming Tom Petty, "the waiting is the hardest part")...actually since HOPEFULLY everyone has already completed their preps, it's almost like...let's get this over with. Maybe not, but those that haven't better RUSH to completion and get the hell to higher ground/shelters/another state.
Been getting knocked off the site a lot so I imagine the traffic is incredible...Mike has been doing a super job and is probably eliminating every possible thing he can to keep the site up.
I reiterate from earlier (as long as I can access ), if anyone has a question or concern, if I can provide a FACTUAL/REALISTIC answer (not some wishcasting jingo) I will. Pose 'em. If I can find you what you're looking for I will...as I said...me & google...perfect together.
Peace for now.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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JaxBeachMan
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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What do you think the chances are of turning a little north and hitting St Augustine/Jacksonville? Is evacuation still a possibility?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Sorry folks, better than that...winds are down to 125, not 135 as my earlier post stated
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like the A98E model is contaminated again. Tracks to near Birmingham and then SW to the mouth of the MS river!, over 24 hours.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> What do you think the chances are of turning a little north and hitting St Augustine/Jacksonville? Is evacuation still a possibility?
I don't know if this question(s) was directed towards me...one thing I am absolutely NOT qualified to do is to make predictions on where the storm is going or whether or not to evacuate. You need to listen to your local NWS for that and abide by what they say. If you are under a mandatory evac order...well...go...even if it's only to a local shelter. I've heard that those not told to evac should stay in their residences for fear of clogging the already overcongested highways...so that's all I'm going to say on that.
When I said I could answer questions, I meant more about storm surge maps (if I can find them) current conditions, storm reports, that type of stuff. I cannot, and will not offer any storm predictions. (other than crow eating guesses...not to be confused with the real deal). Listen to the NWS, they've done this before...they're pretty good, believe it or not.
Godspeed...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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As for Jacksonville, refer to latest bulletin ...
W PALM BEACH FL 13 8 1 1 23
FT PIERCE FL 5 14 2 1 22
COCOA BEACH FL 1 14 4 2 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 7 9 4 20
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 7 8 16
There are a number of reasons to believe Jacksonville (among other places) is "relatively safe" from a direct hit from at it's current intensity. Stay alert!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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In North Orlando,
Last night I was very worried.
Tonight I'm not concerned as much.
What I thnk I'm seeing is a dying who will
have weakening winds and of course lots of rain as she comes ashore near Jensen Beach and moves over Lakeland toward the gulf.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I thought this got posted, apparantly not:
According to the advisory, the winds are at 135mph, moving WNW at 10mph. This storm is still a Cat 4.
Anyone have any ideas on what will happen to intensity when it crosses the Gulfstream? I still think she's going to be a well organized storm before making landfall. And I'm not "hoping" for it, as I'm in the general direction of her eye. J
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike posted a new thread...all replies should be directed there. Thanks!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I have a feeling that this is going to continue to weaken (flight winds only 120 now) and hit land as a Cat III
Listen to *us* talk...ONLY a Cat III. When was the last time we could *hope* for *only* a Cat-III to hit a highly populated state in the middle of a holiday weekend? That just goes to show you how gigantic this storm actually is, how tremendous its' potentilal to kill, injure and destroy lives and propery. Yes Rabbit, I too hope it is ONLY a Cat-III and that dies a quick death. Let it die a quick death by drowing at sea before it can reach our shores, before it can ruin more lives in our fine country and the great state of Florida in particular.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I am in Pompano Beach now. I had to evacuate today. I have been so busy preparing that I haven't been able to stay abreast of the posts. Can someone fill me in on the storm? The local TV has it's usual HYPE and HYSTERIA! I think I picked up that they still don't know where the storm is gonna go! I am experiencing rain right now. I want to stay online as long as I can
*That* pretty well sums it up, we do NOT know what it is going to do or who it will affect. Every time we *think* we know, it changes again, but whatever happens, time is getting nearer to the time when all speculation will end I, for one, will be joining you in leaving my home, such as it is, and letting nature take its' course. Will you and I be homelesss Sunday, or just face repairs? We don't know but we're going to find out very soon. Let's hope for the best, preparae ourselves for the worst and know whichever way it turns out that some things are just beyond the power of us weak and mortal humans.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?
No, yolu are not correct. Orlando and most of the state will feel the effects of . Even if the storm goes poof and disappears instantly, at this moment, it already has affected virtually the whole state. Millions of people have had to evacuate their homes, Many millions have worried, spent money on batteries, put up shutters, taped windows, worried, bought food that won't rot that they usually wouldn't touch with a stick, worried, planned, bought gas, worried, stood in interminable lines for bottles of water...well, you get the idea. A direct HIT on Orlando seems less likely if yo are referring to the eye itself, but we WILL see at least a or perhaps worse, and *Don't* forget, that line in the forecast is JUST A GUESS by the ...it is ONLY a FORECAST and that *could* and probably will change. For missions in and around Orlando, it is HOPE, something to smile about and make ourselves smile just a second. We hope it is right and fear for our friends and neighbors that used to be in the clear that may well take our place in the hottest of seats in our stead. Orlando will be hit, probably not as bad as it could have been, but it will be hit, maybe not the eye, but by wind and rain that will likely cause more damage, more lines, more shortages, and many hot, muggy DARK, and sleepless nights without air conditioning. But, on the gright side, we have the *hope* that it *could* have been worse....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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