Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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Hurricaned -- probably just a bit south of the forecast. See the graphic with the first post in this thread and shift it ever so slightly south, and you have my thinking. I'm also not too sure about the sharp turn it is forecast to take again once over water; I think a more gradual turn is more likely with this storm. A track similar to Erin 95, with a more southerly route across the peninsula and a slightly further east landfall in the panhandle, is along the lines of what I'm thinking right now.
Latest recon found 948mb pressure, but also an eye that is open SW-N and 20mi. in diameter. Surprised the winds are still as high as they are, but I think part of it is that the wants to cover themselves in case the storm reintensifies in the next day or so. San Salvador only reported 120mph winds, meaning sustained winds are probably now in that ballpark, but if the went down there now, it'd get a few people needlessly off-guard in Florida.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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wxnole
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I
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4192
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being a lurker here for a couple of day it has realy kept me informed
i havent seen hanks latest track i saw last night he was still feeling like a more northern course and does any one know what joe bastardi thinks about current track
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Thanks a lot for your answer....... Will you post an other map after the 11pm forecast from the National Weather Service?
The wind maps will be updated as significant changes in the forecast coordinates are released. We'll be watching all advisories until is no longer a hurricane.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Notice went back to a WNW track in the latest advisory. Miami is not out of the woods yet. Also, appears to be regaining a little strength. Only time will tell, but I would bet on a Cat 4 minimum at land fall.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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WeatherNLU -- done and done. You should have something in the next few minutes. He got it, just forgot to reply.
spook -- we have what you could call "Super" hurricanes, with winds over 150mph, but with the Saffir-Simpson scale in wide use in this part of the world, there's no need for yet another designation.
Also, tornadoes do occur throughout the world. Like you won't hear about many of our tornadoes in other parts of the world, you don't hear about theirs here. However, the US does have more than most other nations, likely a result of favorable synoptic (large-scale) weather patterns.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
The red area shows the hurricane winds. The blue area shows the tropical storm/winds.
The red area is shown to be a decreasing cone. I assume that's because once it hits land, it looses strength and consequently gets smaller?
The map shows the winds for the red area at certain times and locations. What are the winds for the blue area at certain times and locations?
The winds in the blue areas are not forcast in intensity from the invisibe line between the hurricane force winds and the outer edge of the storm. Since I'm not a weather guy, I guess the answer is 'hey man; this thing is spinning, it has long arms full of all kinds of weather imaginable and winds will vary in strength and direction depending where you are inrelation to the center storm' (or something like that)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Well passed 75W at around 24.3N(maybe just a tad south even) which was further south than the approximate forecast from a few days ago of it crossing at about 25n/75w. To me this means that the forecasts for an SC/GA/N FL hit decrease the further moves to the west. I know that anything can happen, but I'm still thinking this will landfall somewhere between Miami and Vero(remember you're not out of the "clear" until it's passed north of you).
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Check the Surf
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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However iin this case, even if it passes you by, it could come back South. The chance is slim, but if the ridge builds strong and other things fall in place, a WSW track is not out of the question.
In other words, on this one, don't let your guard down.
Bill
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4192
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i think it was wed there was a model i think that showed a storm following i guess they were right ???
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ThirdRay
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Skeetobite.... I to am in Lakeland. What are your thoughts as to how severe this will be? I enjoy yuor posts. We still have debris in our yards from Charlie here...Advise please
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spook
Unregistered
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I.E.Betsy 1965,moved north,then sw,then west then nothwest,blamed on seeding of storms back then,but as time has shown,these things follow least resistance!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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I just don't understand this weakening. Every time I think she may be getting back together, something happens again. I wonder if the mountains of East Cuba are disrupting the inflow/outflow. She seems too far away for this, but it is all I can come up with.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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According to our local tv station that just spoke to the hurricane center, the track will shift northward toward Melbourne at 11 pm. Also, here is the latest from my friend Thomas:
Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical troubles.
Barely CAT 4 wobbled right then back to the left due to eye wall reformation this afternoon. She is moving slower at around 9-10 mph on a WNW heading. Visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye but I expect normal eyewall re-development in the next 12-18 hours. On the Amateur Radio Net on 14.325 kc I'm hearing weather reports of sustained winds of in excess of 100 mph in the Bahama Islands.
Though we are still in for some circulation friction, track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 on Saturday afternoon. A good storm chaser location will be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay area after landfall, I expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.
Last but not least I do lower the chances of a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami landfall from 50% to 20% and a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east from 1% to 20%.
Last but not least we now have tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands. Looking at satellite imagery it's already T.S. . My first impression of is of a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a CAT 5 threat.
My .02 for today.
Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Karen
Registered User
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Loc: Space Coast
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Post deleted by Karen
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jimmy99
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if Hurricane stalls when it gets on land, what is everyone predicting with the rainfall amounts?ive heard of as much 20 inches if it does stall 
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Wife and I went out for dinner tonight, noticed an odd thing we've never seen before in recent memory: work crews were scouring every major intersection and taking down all but 1 redlight for each direction of traffic. Darnest thing I've ever seen. Pull up to a redlight, and there's only 1 light hanging off the lines. Every intersection on the south side of town that we saw (around Shepherd Rd. area of town).
Guess that they're solving two problems at once: 1) get rid of excess projectiles in case of potential 100+mph winds, 2) get a healthy supply of replacement lights if there are badly hit areas that lose all of their signal lights.
Just a really eerie thing to see the work crews dismantling the lights. Makes you realize they aren't kidding about this. Heck, they didn't even do this for , back when they were thinking could plow into us directly....
Londovir
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meto
Weather Guru
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its not weak 140 mph, winds
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
Notice went back to a WNW track in the latest advisory. Miami is not out of the woods yet. Also, appears to be regaining a little strength. Only time will tell, but I would bet on a Cat 4 minimum at land fall.
looks stalled to me
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RevRandy
Registered User
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Loc: Ladson, SC
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From a Novice perspective....
Watching the water vapor loop, it appears that skirted North of the Bahamas. Is this True? If so, does this move her more Northerly. Also, from the west, I see what I would call a front moving in and what appears to be an area of shear in the GOM. What effect/time would this have on ? Also, trying to watch the ridge above her in the same loop, doesn't it bulge north to some degree? Could she force her way north?
I know, novice, but I live near Charleston and would like to see dissolve.
nah, modeling is grouped on east florida.. looks like we're in the clear further up the coast. not likely that's going to change this late in the game.-HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 01:11 AM)
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