DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Anybody know when the SW shear over Francis will let up? Its very obvious right now in the visible satellite. I think when or if it lets up then she'll begin intensifying again, but until then she'll at least be able to maintain herself. Any answers Clark, JK?
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gailmm
Unregistered
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This is great for us lay people. You are a magician. Thanks.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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5:00 Advisory
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT.
THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO
STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST.
AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
USUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY.
BECAUSE IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.9N 77.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.4N 80.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 31.1N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 35.1N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Wow! Awesome tool, thanks for making it available!
Best Regards,
Bev
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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FINALLY...Alan Winfield (what a name for met in Florida, huh?) just pointed out where the center of the storm is: right smack between the big island chain (Abaco Islands?) and the island south to it, and she's over water. Moving to the WNW. *IF* this continues, there will be another track shift to the left.
Well, my eyes are blurry, so I'm gonna go rest them for a while. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Increasingly less likely...not out of the question, but even if it does it would probably be in a very weak state.
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It's real, but it may not matter too much...the forecast track would keep it over land a long time, and a very short time back over the Gulf...unless it comes back into the Gulf much further south than forecast she's not gonna have time to do much of anything...and if she does, she'll have to stall and not make landfall until Tue or Wed (Which is highly unlikely).
We are the NBC affiliate for the Destin area, so give us a look on your visit.
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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To my eye, there really isn't that much shear...I concur with Clark that what we are seeing is the 'hangover' from ingesting the remnant of that ULL over the Bahamas...
Current Shear Map
Notice the very light shear....
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Jason Kelley
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Matt033
Unregistered
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I think there is a fair chances for this to become 120 mph hurricane again?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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They shifted the track back to the left again...I think he said Indian River area? No, I think it's still Vero Beach. And it's back to taking 24 hours to cross the state.
The met on Channel 9 Orlando mentioned something about a potential turn before it hits the coast, but then said the is adamant about this track. Is a turn to the N/NW possible at this point?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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eligrace
Unregistered
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Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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FWIW..... there is a new heading posted.... probably good idea to post there
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?
Check www.skeetobite.com in a little while. He's been doing a great job with wind field graphics.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Cathy
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
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WOW - a great tool, thanks for sharing with us!
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eligrace
Unregistered
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Thanks storm hound!!!
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Wow, that's awesome. I can never remember which line is which and it used to take forever to look everything up!!!!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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