Maxx
Registered User
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looking at the Melbourne radar on the long range loop, the storm does not seem to be moving too fast and if anything looks to be moving west not nw
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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colleen welcome back, dont you miss john hope, i just saw lyons too, i hardly watch him anymore he rushes thru everything. and that thing is not moving n,w, no way. just use your eyes not a computer. i couldnt believe he didnt even mention fla. either. he is not always being fed that from , he says things on his own. and he didnt mention the obvious the gulf stream temp. i think this thing could skip depession stage and become t.s. and mentioned trof that will catch it, its goin by it wont influence it. mark
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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looking at todays 06 run of the gdfl it does show what would be Eduordo moving north eventually at 48 hours at about Little River around the border of N and S Carolinia (33.6n 78.6w) with about cat 1 strenghth then puts him inland for about 8 hours then it kinda moves him south to about the GA SC border just offsore at 96 hours and inland at about 31.8n 81.3w at 102 hours... just noticed the uniqueness in the model path is all...
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: cocoa beach
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Coleen
While it may not strenghten into a monster, it has, as we saw overnight strengthend some. mentioned favorable conditions to stregthen;light shear, highp aloft at 500mb.
I think it can and will strenghten. "Where's ole Eddie goin?" is the question
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Here in Palm Bay one word HOT HOT HOT. Was hot all night long. If this storm does come around our area, FLOOD FLOOD FLOOD, due to the slow movement and the saturated ground here.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I agree Mark..I think if you are a tropical wx "expert", you should be able to deviate from what they say is happening and just say what you see is happening. I think, after just looking at the Weekend Update, that they are (maybe) basing the track of whatever this storm is at 11 on climatology, because the "usual" tracks in September WOULD take it into the Carolinas. They have been saying NW for at least 36 hours now, and they were wrong. It even says "west" in the STD statement. But we know that nothing is a sure bet in weather, and I would be very hesitant to base my predictions on "climatology". They may very well be right, but being that they are THE Weather Channel, they need to be more responsible in their reporting.
I remember a storm that was suppossed to make that "climatogically" favored turn to the WNW. It didn't. It went west, and no one was ready and had 1 day to prepare for it as it crossed the gulfstream.
His name was Andrew.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I bet at 11am we will have a very strong TD or Eduardo. I don't blame them for waiting for recon to go in again before classifying it, as they wanted to be sure. But the statement "all residents along the Florida East Coast" is completely different than what we have been told in the last 36 hours.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Hey Colleen, Sure does look good on all loops. You have had alot of rain in your area this month. Look like were in for more. This storm sure seems to be making it way to us. I remember only one weather person in South Florida saying Andrew was going to go right into South Florida, all others said a curve to the North. Take Care
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Wow, looks like we will have a TS before long. With the warm gulf stream waters this is exploding. Still believe this will continue to move west. This should make for one intresting labor day!
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ShawnS
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Colleen,you are right. I think we are both in agreement that the will only go by what the models say. If the models are all over the place than they will pick whatever is in the middle and go with that.The problem with the models is that most of them what to go the easy route. If there is a trough in site than they will ALWAYS say that the trough will come and pick a storm up and take it out.They never even act like there is a possibility that this won't happen. And if they don't than neither will the . All of us on this site know better than to trust models,though. That is why sometimes we seem to look smarter than the people at the WC and the . I'm with you, Colleen.
ShawnS
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I do not see this turning NW per steering winds. This will likely be a threat the FL. Clearly you can see a slow west movement.
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CFHC
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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
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AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002
...A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...
RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WITHIN THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ATTM
AND FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM WILL BE USED IN MARINE AND ZONE
UPDATES. SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH BE ISSUED REFER TO THE
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AND THE ASSOCIATED GRAPHICAL HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MARINE...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE EXPECTED EFFECTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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We are all going to just have to be patient for a little longer and they will tell us if or where they find a LLC.
It's obvious rains are getting closer to the coast which makes it look like it's moving west. I can't make out a center from Sat pics, but overall area sure does appear to be moving west.
Nice to have something to watch on Labor Day weekend.
David '79 was a Labor Day storm.
Hurric
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. RECENT REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY...SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA EAST COASTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE ANY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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