bill06
Unregistered
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been hearing news that the storm is really pulling itself back toegther and could reintensify before landfall
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't see much movement, either. Now..is the center on the island or off the island?
AFLAC!
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Alex.K
Unregistered
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A two millibar drop in pressure is not significant when a storm is holding its own or intensifiying, but it means a tremendous amount when a storm is weakening. This is because a lower pressure usually means an end to weakening, as one could make a strong argument that the true strength of a hurricane (or any low) is measured by pressure.
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Chopper Dave
Unregistered
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You guys who know what you're talking about: is there a chance that it will take a turn west and hit further south than predicted tracks have it going? How about the odds of it intensifying? Thanks ahead of time everyone.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Looks to me Miami radar has a good pix on the eye approaching the SE Abaco Islands... shows up in the last couple of frames.... need more loops to determine direction
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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Long-time lurker, first time caller.
Noticed the latest dispatch from now has Charleston (SC) with a <12% chance of making acquaintance with in the next 72 hours. I keep seeing this stall and then a more Northward angle on her, and am not quite happy about it. With both and Gaston I had to deal with power/cable out, downed trees, a wrecked garden, etc... and wonder if anyone has some thoughts?
Awesome board, by the way.
Best,
Anton in Charleston (well, the Pleasant side of the river)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
I don't see much movement, either. Now..is the center on the island or off the island?
AFLAC!
I can't see a clear center right now. Probably due to the shear it was experiencing as well as its west side now interacting with Florida. Personally it looks like the "eye" starts to the SE of Great Abaco, tracks to the NW, gets right on top of the tip of the island and tracks close to due west.
-------------------- Check the Surf
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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She's back. On the GOES Floater IR, the is established again and the eye is back. Can't get a direction yet since the eye just became visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
-------------------- Go Boilermakers
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digitalssinc
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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I am going to Destin tomorrow, has anyone heard what I should expect for the next few days there?
By the way, I have been monitoring this site for about 3 days now, and I have formed a tremendous respect for the people who work hard to give the truth.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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first impression on the radar loop look to be somewhere between wnw and nw.... still wobbling around so not sure which or if a combination of both.... but you can certainly see it as it is hitting the SE part of the island...but I know its NOT north.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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4 pm thoughts from Thomas:
Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical trouble twosome!
Barely CAT 3 "once again" wobbled right then back to the left today due to eye wall reformation (trochoidal). She is moving fairly slow at around 9 mph on a WNW heading and could slow done even more. At 2:30 pm EDT on Friday September 03, 2004 the center of is just south of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. This position increases the chances of landfall on the east coast of Florida.
Looking at the 1830 UTC/1:30 pm EDT visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye BUT with a BIG burst of convection in the right side of the eyewall. This big burst of convection should ensure a continued WNW track in the near term. Back on Wednesday September 01, 2004 I forecasted some SW shearing as traversed to approximately 75 deg. west longitude and indeed that has happened during the past 24 hours. I still expect normal eyewall re-development within 18 hours as moves over the near 90 deg. F waters of the Gulf Stream. I also have strong concerns that will strengthen dramatically back to a strong CAT 4 when over the Gulf Stream prior to landfall.
Though we are still in for some circulation friction, trochoidal track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as some minor strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 but now on Saturday evening. BUT like with CAT 4 , speed divergence could abruptly pull ashore (sharp left turn). Otherwise a WNW track from the Palm Beach-Vero Beach window across inland Polk County to near or north of the Tampa Bay region back into the GOM is probable.
A good storm chaser location will continue be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay metro area after landfall, I still expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.
I do continue the chances of a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east at 20%. I also add that there is a 30% possibility that a CAT 4 sits quasi-stationary over the Gulf Stream right off of the coast for a day or two and then heads N-NE. And last but not least, a 30% chance that a CAT 4 eyewall skims the coastline and eventually goes ashore at a Cape Canaveral to New Smyrna Beach window.
As I surmised yesterday evening tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands "was" T.S. . My impression continues that will stay on a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a future CAT 5 threat.
My .02 for today.
Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Well if can just maintain herself now and keep the convection going she'll be ok. Im still thinking landfall around West Palm Beach, Cat 3, 115-120 mph and maybe a few gust up to 135 or so. When do the next model runs come out? I learned how to read all of them, Im just to lazy to figure out all that UTC, zulu stuff lol. Any help is appreciated.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Saturday, and most of the day on Sunday should be really nice...things should begin to go downhill late Sunday...depending on the track and the structure of as she moves north, you may or may not get rain as far west as Destin....a little to early to tell...I'd bet on at least some rain on Monday.
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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concerned
Unregistered
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What about Gainesville? We live about a mile W of the beach in St Johns County, and I'm thinking of heading inland
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Jason what are your thoughts on a possible 2nd landfall in the panhandle ?
-------------------- Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Hello all! I'm not a met, not even a weather person much, but I am a programmer, and I've come up with a tool that hopefully can be of some use to someone.
The attachment to this post is a text file. (You can't post HTML attachments on here.) If you save the attachment as an .HTML file on your computer, and open it on your web browser, it will contain a text window and two buttons (Clear and Decode). If you follow the link on the page (near the top), a new window will open containing the most recent hurricane Vortex Recon Report. If you highlight and copy the recon report, then paste it into the box on my program, you can press the Decode button, and it will convert it into (slightly) easier to read English...
I don't promise it's going to work 100%, and it only can handle recod vortex reports, not drop or supplemental (YET), so try it if you feel like it. PM me if you have problems, suggestions, etc.
-------------------- Londovir
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Well, seems like this year mother nature is catching up for we haven't had in the way of tropical weather for so long.
From MLB
". HPC DAYS 6-7 PROGS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH T.C. LURKING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE MAGNITUDE OF ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH FORECASTS AT THAT LONG OF A TIME FRAME ARE WELL KNOWN - STAY TUNED NEVERTHELESS...THIS SEEMS TO BE A PAYBACK YEAR OF SORTS FOR FLORIDA ."
-------------------- "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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seaturtle
Unregistered
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thanks for all your efforts! Don't listen to the gripers. Let's give 'em th benefit of the doubt: maybe they're just scared. Keep up all the interesting observations. I'm in NJ but only 20 feet from the sea, so always interested!
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digitalssinc
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Jason,
Thanks for the quick response. You are farther east than i will be. Everyone keeps says how it will go through FLA and jump back in the gulf, how real is this scenario?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Awesome.... works great for me.... thanks
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