scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Martha wait and see until saturday morning. It wont be up near you till Sunday afternoon at the earliest.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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scott,
seeing as you're the only met on the boards right now, can you make a forecast...at least a 3-day? Thanks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Martha,
I would get prepared by locating the local shelters in your area. Review the Hurricane preparedness list and make sure you have your supplies.
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TinaLee
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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This isn't really wishcasting, but it is the best graphic I have seen with regard to the projected path of . I think it pretty well sums up the way the residents of Florida feel at this point.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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(This is block copied and not my words, I am not good at this stuff yet, but if I keep reading from you guys, who knows . . . next year I might be able to post something of my own that amounts to a hill of beans)
I found this on abc3340:
1 PM CDT FAST FACTS ON HURRICANE :
IVAN PLOWING ALONG AS A EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
POSITION: Latitude 14.8 N, Longitude 72.0 W
or 360 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica
MOVEMENT: WNW at 15 MPH (no change)
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 160 MPH (Category 5) Gusts to 195 MPH (no change)
LOWEST PRESSURE: 923 millibars, 27.26 inches (Pressure has risen slightly)
90% of buildings damaged when it passed over Granada
At least 16 fatalities on Granada
We will update the above data at 4 PM
There is a considerable spread in the suite of computer models; some suggest a motion toward the central Gulf coast, others show taking a sharp right turn, cutting across south Florida. It is simply too early to determine where the storm is going, but everyone from New Orleans to Charleston will have to pay close attention to over the next five days.
One model (the ) takes into the Atlantic, and then turns it westward with a threat to places like Delaware and New Jersey in about 9 days. It will be very interesting to watch what happens; the system should remain a dangerous hurricane for the foreseeable future.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Now THAT's funny!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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That really is funny. It is good to have a sense of humor in times like this. Laughter is good for the heart, soul and body. Keep the spirits up.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Kimberley Clark did James Spann do that update ? Good to see anouther south AL person posting here.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I did a lot of atmospheric chemistry models in graduate school, and I am looking to become an expert on met models too! The page explains the models well, but I really would like a good summary website that has constant updates as the models are run. What site is best to look at the models? I have been using weather underground, namely because it is labelled and tells when the models were last run. I like the spaghetti model site, but it doesn't have a legend. I also look at the forecast maps, but that is their interpretation, so it doesn't interest me as much as the raw data.
If the following post is in reference to my question.... are there any good 'free' sites that show updated model runs with a legend?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Sep 09 2004 06:39 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://www.wright-weather.com/gfdl.shtml
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Phil, I cant give exact point but will say around Havana moving NNW or N. I wont know landfall till tomorrow at this time for the 3 day forcast. Right now 3 days goes out to Sunday and landfall wont happen till later monday afternoon or night. There is still a outside chance that this will take the path. How about say, Landfall is missing Key Largo by 100 miles to Panama City.,,,,,,hehehe but seriously give me 24 hours to make my 3 day forcast on landfall, I and we have time.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Been a while. We unexpectedly lost my mom last Wed. so I didn't pay much attention to anything (including - mom's middle name btw - outside of what they showed on Fox, CNN and The Weather Channel.) I'm glad to see the site is back up and will probably make some kind of small donation in the next few weeks (and certainly encourage anyone who hasn't yet to also do so).
I have to disagree with scottsvb though the pages are still loading too slow to go back and see when he posted it. He mentioned the was basically on track, but 's position is some 200 miles S/SW of where it was supposed to be. For anyone with Accupro access, make sure you read Bastardi's comment and watch his tropical video today. He takes on the /GFDL in favor of the UKMet and Canadian solutions and likes a landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. The 12Z model wants the system near the AL/FL border in the 120-144 hour (5-6 days) time frame. I do agree with Scott that chances are there won't be a Cat-5 hit on the US. But we can't rule out 2, 3 or 4 which seem likely if not inevitable. My call? I think that landfalls somewhere between Gulfport, MS and Seaside, FL early next week (Tuesday perhaps) as a Cat 2 or 3. All of the above of course assumes that will pass south of Jamaica and more westerly than what the /GFS alliance is feeding us for now. They have shifted their track farther and farther west since classification and that's likely to continue.
And a special note for rickonboat: Rick, you're not getting a Cat 5, but if you don't see some effects from , I'll donate $10 to the site in your name.
Finally, I had to laugh at the Michael Moore comment above. Moore tends to follow the smoke moreso than guys like the rock readers (doomsday hurricane predicted for Tampa Bay last blue moon) though his conclusions are sometimes dubious. Nonetheless, it appears our current administration is as guilty of pimping and following conspiracy theories as any  . One day the American public will wake up and stop electing such inept presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Johnson, etc.) and return to the days of at least guys like Ike and Truman if not ole TR. Yeah I know this part is going to be deleted, but what the hey - it's been a while.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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scott,
you need to get panama city out of your vocab. it don't look good right now but alot can happen in 4 days.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Yes it is his 1pm notes. It is good to see some south Alabama foks on here. I cannot believe the information that this site provides. I just registered yesterday as soon as it came back up. I was having withdrawals, but I was truly praying every time I tried to log on that everyone was ok. IHad questions in my mind like "Is L1 there?" "Is Colleen ok?" "Is Rick still on his boat?" Just kidding about the boat thing, but I was very concerned for all who post here and was and still am praying for you guys.
I will be leaving my wonderful paralegal job here in Mobile shortly to head to the doctor and then the hills of Citronelle. But, first thing tomorrow morning, I will be back on learning again.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Steve...
I'll take you up on that...whether I feel the effects or not. Heck, I'm feeling the effects right now...!!!!!
Seriously, I'm with you on the more westerly track, though it doesn't mean wishcasting.
Easy to minimize the odds of this maintaining a cat 5...
consider this line of thought...
How much activity has this year already had?
How HOT is the GOM water?
What happens in 4-5 days?>...as far as ridging, etc...???
so a cat 5 anywhere along the coast is quite possible...albeit, if not really probable...
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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So sorry to hear about your mother's passing. My deepest sympathies go out to you and your whole family. Lets hope this thing stays away from NO. You don't need any more stress right now.
And I'm leaving your political commentary up...as a token of good will and sympathy.
Let ED or HF take it down if they so choose.
Again, my deepest sympathies. Hang tough, guy.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Its ok steve to disagree with my thinking. Sorry to hear about your mom. Hope you guys are doing better.
Anyways I support my tracks 100% and have gotten every storm this year correct (im proud to say) but Earl, last year missed 2 and I think year before that the same. I got from start to finish. I went against Basardi as I do in general as he uses alot of hype in his forcasts and wants to pinpoint targets on his seasonal forcasts. At times though Basardi and I will agree. I would hope more would disagree with me and if they give reasons why they think it will go somewhere else and it does, then i will look over the data i recieved and see where i went wrong. Anyways right now I dont have a landfall area picked yet on .
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The storm as a cat iv is probable in the eastern GOM...won't maintain cat v too much longer...
I'm with Scott on prediction of land fall The dynamic is very volaitle right now...I'll stick my neck out after the 11:00am on Friday. I have too as we'll need to finish preparing after that.
The ridge is showing signs of lifting out a little, and what I term a convergence boundary is set up in the NE GOM. One thing I think is improbable is any contact with Yucatan...and any thing west of 85 ...I go that far now.
If the pattern now in place were to hold it will hit the Florida west coast pretty much were the 11am runs put it
One thing we all know the next 60 hours are pretty much a lock...near or over Jamaca and between the Cayman's and Cuba....tomorrow that zone of certainty will shift to the NW about 350 miles or so.
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doug
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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any guess on if the size will increase? looks like some of the storms are starting to get farther out from the center.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Rick,
A question: can you tell me how many times this year your predicted tracks have been correct? Everytime we have a storm, you say WEST. You said it with , and it went EAST. You said NORTH with and she went east, now you're say WEST with and ........
A Cat V is nothing to play around with...whether it comes your way, my way, or anyone else's way. I've been through 2 hurricanes in less than 3 weeks and a Cat 2 is no fun, I can tell you that right now. I can't even imagine what a Cat 5 would do here or anywhere. I don't even want to THINK about another hurricane hitting Florida right now. I drive around and see pool cages upside down, trees on houses, roofs ripped off sheds, houses, buildings, schools closed, people have no electricity, water or gas. Some just want a cup of coffee. I've dealt with two terrified little boys and I have done everything in my power to make sure they feel safe and secure and loved. Try putting an 8-year old to bed in a closet with a flashlight because you don't know when the storm is coming or where it's going to hit...south of me? north of me? Try wiping away the tears as he asks you if he's going to die from the hurricane. While you're at it, try wiping away the tears from your own face as you try to reassure your kids that they will be safe. Go out and talk to the people that have lost everything they have within a 3 week period, and more than likely will lose more. If that's possible.
There are people here that lurk and don't post that may take your posts seriously. It's not funny anymore, Rick. A very elderly friend of mine lost his wife due to a sudden heart attack 2 weeks ago. The doctor's said it was from the stress of worrying about . So, it is a matter of life and death.
You can tell me where to go (and so can everyone else) for this post, but from where I'm standing, even JOKING about a CAT 5 isn't funny at all. If you want a Cat 5, fly to Jamaica.
The has been 99.9% on with their forecasted paths for the last three or four storms. I hope like heck that this storm turns west, and if you want it, have at it. We can all say it's too early to tell, but from where I'm standing, I see a lot of things that tell me the is pretty darn confident in their track.
You can get mad, the moderators can edit this if they want, but I had to say this because it's really not funny anymore.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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