Bioman
Unregistered
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I have been very impressed with this website. I am a weather fanatic and althought the last two hurricanes were devestating for many around me I remain quite fascinated. I Live in DeLand Florida and sort of have an amateur weather station going here. I teach science at Deland High School. Personally i think volusia county was one of the hardest hit. I think this has to do with a "crack the whip" theory. we were on the edge of the storm with Francis but we took alot of damage. If my math and geometry is correct something that rotates around a point the outside edge away from the center has to cover more ground than the middle. the storms that were hitting us were moving in excess of 50 mph. If the storms are moving that fast what does that do to the windspeed? When cape canaveral got a blast of 124 mph and there were gusts at hurricane strength to my east in Daytona im starting to wonder if its safe to be on the edge. Here we were out of power for five days but for rainfall i recorded 10.25" over three days. Not to mention we had 2.79 inches this afternoon and evening from stationary boomers. Also I live about a mile from the st. johns river and it is starting to envelop homes on the river. Anyone know what sort of impact 3" of rain is going to have on the overall cresting forecast released earlier this week? Keep up the good work. Im fascinated by everyones interest in Hurricanes and weather in General. BTW I have received 38.7 inches since i purchased my wireless rain gage. that total is since July 1st....pretty amazing.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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good point as I was reading the vortex translation info in lieu of the actual vortex message... .... stands to reason that the NW quad is correct with the reduced flight level winds... not sure what happed to decoder.... need to check it out on next vortex message decoding....
also agree that track should shift a little right a little at 11 based on the new model runs...
thanks
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Quote:
Anyone know what sort of impact 3" of rain is going to have on the overall cresting forecast released earlier this week?
I'ld get your snorkel/ scuba gear ready.
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Kelly
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
It is because they don't really know. The track will continue to flip flop and change right up until a day or two before landfall. That is why they have already started evacuating the Keys, since it takes at least 2 days to do that.
This is from the 5PM Discussion, and "thereafter" refers to after 2-3 days.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIVERGE.
Bill
Bingo, all you have to do is take a degree or so away from the 120 hour 5PM position and is on Florida's wc!
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rd522525
Unregistered
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s--t what kinda boat you livin on boy? you r a brave soul! I have a premenition your in for a big ride!
Should I take this one down?
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 08:45 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Is it possible the note was typed with the wrong direction? I agree that the lighter winds are prob. in the NW quad, but I wasn't sure which to believe.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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It is all very fascinating, though destructive, too. Glad I found this site as the people around me think I'm a bit odd. I have learned much from you all. I tend to visualize the storm paths in my own mind, mixed with gut feelings. Your smarts help me see the why.
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When it rains, it pours...
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Have not had a chance to look at any other recon data. The NW would not normally be the strongest quad. NE should have the higher winds. They may not have sampled the NE Quad or gotten a good reading from there.
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Jim
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
It is all very fascinating, though destructive, too. Glad I found this site as the people around me think I'm a bit odd. I have learned much from you all. I tend to visualize the storm paths in my own mind, mixed with gut feelings. Your smarts help me see the why.
I'm glad to see I'm not the only one. I teach chemistry and Earth science at a Louisiana University and have been obsessing over these storms. I am also an advisor for one of the sororities and rush is going on right now. Instead, I am sitting in one of the girl's rooms reading this board/checking out stats.... It's not that I think hurricanes are fun (as everyone seems to misunderstand), I just find them interesting and have a great respect for their power.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Not unless they also had a typo in line G, which is the direction and distance from the eye that the wind was detected, and 325 is NW.
But anything is possible without analyzing all the obs they made, as to what the path of the plane might have been between the last two vortex messages. It could well be they didn't make it to the NE quadrant between the two. Hurricanes are very dynamic systems, and as good a job as they do, it is difficult for the recon planes to stay at an exact altitude, exact course and make a perfect reading every time.
Besides it is not the spot readings that are looked at, but trends and averages.
Bill
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slwfreez
Unregistered
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(Off topic post removed by moderator.)
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 09:05 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Check out the 5AM advisory and see what Stewart says about the track in the 96-120 hours. Very interesting.
Boys....hang on to your hats...football's on and I'm calling the shots! WWWWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAWWWWWWWWWW!!!!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Looks like the models are trying to make it a more lively weekend in South Florida !!!!
The models seem to be doing a flip flop on each run.
(I won't go there).......
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Don't hang your hat on the 06 and 18Z runs...there is very little 'new' data going into them...I wouldn't base a big forecast shift on just the 18Z or 06Z runs..but I ain't either...
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Jason Kelley
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A lot of the old runs of the Superensemble were on the left of all available model guidance, trending towards the Fl. panhandle. They had been remarkably consistant in doing so. I can't post the latest information, thus the disclaimer in the title. Intensity fairly well agreed with save for the differences in track affecting intensity.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Maybe this will finally be Riconaboat's show. Not that I am wishing it on anyone. However, being only about 20 miles from the /Frances X marks the spot, I am a bit storm weary.
At this poiint one has to ask...wouldn't a Cat V in Mobile bay make EVERYONE happy?
The storm seems to have been running left of guidence for a while. I think that trend may continue.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 09:36 PM)
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wezman1
Unregistered
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The AVN model shows curving around Florida and making landfall in the Carolinas. Is there any creedence to this or would you put this model in a class with the 'right outliers'
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I think the AVN is what you call "out to lunch," meaning that it is a right outlier. There's nothing out there to support it's scenario of an upper low along 30 N eroding the west side of the ridge and turning the storm north into another ridge, at least not that I can see.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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It did the same thing with , and has shown widely varied tracks out past 5 days. I understand model skill with these are low at that point, but it has had it doing loops, jumps, backflips, somersaults (sp?) and everything else it can do with it. High pressure aloft is supposed to develop in SE Canada as per the CPC discussion from earlier today, but its recent track record is not that good. The CPC did mention it could get trapped anywhere from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley, but I feel uncomfortable speculating past Jamaica at this point.
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Martha
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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I saw a link on here yesterday to www.Orlandoweather.com where you could see the paths of all the storms Well, no matter what anyone says I think this is coming right in where did because since according to this since met up with 's path it is following in his footsteps....
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