CFHC
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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
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TD#5 has formed. Watches/Warnings will go up at 5... more to come later.
Melbourne Radar - Long Range
Dolly still is moving wwn, even looking slightly better than before. Still I think she's a fish spinner.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Yes, and I still believe NE Florida will be the landfalling point for this storm. I figure that Cape Canaveral to Kings Island, Georgia should be a landfalling destintation for this storm. I still believe Central Florida should get some weather out of this one.
African wave: There is a T number of 1.0 on this wave...will have to watch as it gets further west.
Dolly also may not recurve fully...it appears that the C. Atlantic trough will turn it north, but not east. We also need to keep an eye for this one.
Things are getting active now!
Also...my parents and I are going to Daytona Beach. We'll be leaving around 4:30 or 5:00 I figure...so I'm expecting we'll get some squally weather. This is gonna be cool!
Kevin   
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, call me nuts, but it STILL looks like it is going WEST.
If this storm was bigger and moving a little bit faster, I would think that it would have a greater chance of being lifted WNW and NW. As it is...it's barely taking baby steps. I think like Ed said that this thing will start to crank up again like it did last night. It died down yesterday about 5pm, but then roared back to life in the evening hours.
Time will tell. I think we also need to keep an eye on the Gulf side of FL. What if the two decide to meet??? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This is from the NWS/Melbourne 2:45pm Update:
"RECON FLIGHT DATA SINCE THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A BROAD CIRCULATION
JUST EAST OF FL AND THE BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSE ENUF TO
AREA TO LIE WITHIN MLB RADAR RANGE. LOWEST PRESSURE READINGS HAVE
BEEN ONLY AROUND 1015 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE IN THE HIGH RANGE
FOR TD INITIATION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM GULF STREAM
WATER AND RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER WOULD
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING OR FURTHER ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL RECON
FLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO CLOSE A SPECIFIC CENTER. FOR
NOW WILL PROCEED WITH FORECAST REFLECTING MODELS TAKING SYSTEM ON AN
INCREASINGLY NW TRACK WHILE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH TAKING SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD AS SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS MOVEMENT
LESS CERTAIN AS BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST US
COAST.
1. They are NOT sure that the system will head WNW or even NW after 48 hours.
2. They believe it may be strengthening because of the Gulfstream Waters.
Another thing....on the long range Melbourne Radar Loop, is the spinning just east of Daytona Beach where they think the center of circulation is right now? Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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No doubt about it, I think that fl. will be land fall for this system. I also believe as others that the GS could help to quickly strenghten TD5. Early this morning on another site I posted that I felt there was a possibility that land fall could be central fl. and that it could make a B- line up the center of our state or keep heading west, then exit into the GOM and than get pulled back to the NE and end up in the Carolinas .
Any comments on this scenario? Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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If it makes you feel any better, said the same thing. ;-)
BTW...are we REALLY under a Tropical Storm Watch?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.
It appears the 'official' forecasters are looking at models, not radar or satellite. Hell, this one is close enough to practically *watch* out the window, but I'll bet the officials will forget to do that too. I have looked at all of the models I can find, and so far, none of them seem to realize there is any kind of a storm brewing out there....Oh well, I guess that is why our maker gave us eyes, ears and brains...so we can form our own conclusions.....
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Colleen, looks like it is moving W. might get close. Nice to see you posting today.  Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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5 p.m. Advisory, 29.0 N, 79.2 W, Winds 35
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Just got a call from a friend that works at the Melbourne Airport. Two Dyno-Gel planes have just taken off heading East 
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Bruce: quick! Call the local news stations! Let them know that if this storm falls apart all of the sudden, they'll know why.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Just joking
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Look at the Strike possibilities: East Central Florida has the highest....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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LOL....Bruce, you sucker punched me on that one, dude!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Looking at the radar loop, where is the center? Just west of the heavy convection?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Last post for a while.
ARE THEY FREAKING BLIND???? I JUST watched Kristin Dodd point to the CoC and say "it's moving to the WNW" and it is VERY evident that it is NOT. As she was pointing TO the WNW, TD#5 went right by her to the WEST.
I would expect that track forecast to be shifted to the right if it's still moving that way in the next few hours.
I may be completely wrong on this. But I swear it is moving due west.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Bruce...if it's anywhere near where Kristin Dodd said it was, it's right in the middle, underneath the convection.
Of course, it could be heading for the moon for all we know right now..
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Daytona Beach has the highest strike possibility as of right now at 47 and Cedar Key on the W coast has a 15.
I still feel that there is a possibility that TD5 will continue to head w and exit into the GOM.
Is there anyone else that feels this might be a possibility?
Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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TD 5, where will he go?
i think the key to that is how well he develops! If he become a well developed system with deep convection i think we may see him take a turn to the NW and move inland or skirt the coast somewhere near the FL / GA border up to Brunswick. However, if he doesnot become a system with a lot of very deep convection i think we will see him take a more westerly course, and move onshore somewhere between Daytonna and Jacksonville.
As far as intensity goes... well an early landfall then he will be near 40 or 45 mph, but if he heads further North then perhaps nearer 50 mph.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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