Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
CFHCAdministrator



Reged:
Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2454 - Sun Sep 01 2002 03:14 PM

TD#5 has formed. Watches/Warnings will go up at 5... more to come later.

Melbourne Radar - Long Range

Dolly still is moving wwn, even looking slightly better than before. Still I think she's a fish spinner.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2455 - Sun Sep 01 2002 03:27 PM

Yes, and I still believe NE Florida will be the landfalling point for this storm. I figure that Cape Canaveral to Kings Island, Georgia should be a landfalling destintation for this storm. I still believe Central Florida should get some weather out of this one.

African wave: There is a T number of 1.0 on this wave...will have to watch as it gets further west.

Dolly also may not recurve fully...it appears that the C. Atlantic trough will turn it north, but not east. We also need to keep an eye for this one.

Things are getting active now!

Also...my parents and I are going to Daytona Beach. We'll be leaving around 4:30 or 5:00 I figure...so I'm expecting we'll get some squally weather. This is gonna be cool!

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2456 - Sun Sep 01 2002 03:55 PM

Ok, call me nuts, but it STILL looks like it is going WEST.
If this storm was bigger and moving a little bit faster, I would think that it would have a greater chance of being lifted WNW and NW. As it is...it's barely taking baby steps. I think like Ed said that this thing will start to crank up again like it did last night. It died down yesterday about 5pm, but then roared back to life in the evening hours.

Time will tell. I think we also need to keep an eye on the Gulf side of FL. What if the two decide to meet???


--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2457 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:12 PM

This is from the NWS/Melbourne 2:45pm Update:

"RECON FLIGHT DATA SINCE THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A BROAD CIRCULATION
JUST EAST OF FL AND THE BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSE ENUF TO
AREA TO LIE WITHIN MLB RADAR RANGE. LOWEST PRESSURE READINGS HAVE
BEEN ONLY AROUND 1015 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE IN THE HIGH RANGE
FOR TD INITIATION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM GULF STREAM
WATER AND RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER WOULD
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING OR FURTHER ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL RECON
FLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO CLOSE A SPECIFIC CENTER. FOR
NOW WILL PROCEED WITH FORECAST REFLECTING MODELS TAKING SYSTEM ON AN
INCREASINGLY NW TRACK WHILE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH TAKING SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD AS SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS MOVEMENT
LESS CERTAIN AS BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST US
COAST.

1. They are NOT sure that the system will head WNW or even NW after 48 hours.
2. They believe it may be strengthening because of the Gulfstream Waters.

Another thing....on the long range Melbourne Radar Loop, is the spinning just east of Daytona Beach where they think the center of circulation is right now? Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2458 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:20 PM

No doubt about it, I think that fl. will be land fall for this system. I also believe as others that the GS could help to quickly strenghten TD5. Early this morning on another site I posted that I felt there was a possibility that land fall could be central fl. and that it could make a B- line up the center of our state or keep heading west, then exit into the GOM and than get pulled back to the NE and end up in the Carolinas .

Any comments on this scenario? Pinwheel Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2459 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:23 PM

If it makes you feel any better, TWC said the same thing. ;-)

BTW...are we REALLY under a Tropical Storm Watch?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2460 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:23 PM

In reply to:

Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.





It appears the 'official' forecasters are looking at models, not radar or satellite. Hell, this one is close enough to practically *watch* out the window, but I'll bet the officials will forget to do that too. I have looked at all of the models I can find, and so far, none of them seem to realize there is any kind of a storm brewing out there....Oh well, I guess that is why our maker gave us eyes, ears and brains...so we can form our own conclusions.....

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2461 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:26 PM

Hey Colleen, looks like it is moving W. might get close. Nice to see you posting today. Pinwheel Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
TD #5
      #2462 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:38 PM

5 p.m. Advisory, 29.0 N, 79.2 W, Winds 35

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2463 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:41 PM

Just got a call from a friend that works at the Melbourne Airport. Two Dyno-Gel planes have just taken off heading East

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: TD #5
      #2464 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:42 PM

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2465 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:44 PM

Bruce: quick! Call the local news stations! Let them know that if this storm falls apart all of the sudden, they'll know why.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2466 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:45 PM

Just joking

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2467 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:47 PM

Look at the Strike possibilities: East Central Florida has the highest....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2468 - Sun Sep 01 2002 04:48 PM

LOL....Bruce, you sucker punched me on that one, dude!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2469 - Sun Sep 01 2002 05:03 PM

Looking at the radar loop, where is the center? Just west of the heavy convection?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2470 - Sun Sep 01 2002 05:04 PM

Last post for a while.

ARE THEY FREAKING BLIND???? I JUST watched Kristin Dodd point to the CoC and say "it's moving to the WNW" and it is VERY evident that it is NOT. As she was pointing TO the WNW, TD#5 went right by her to the WEST.
I would expect that track forecast to be shifted to the right if it's still moving that way in the next few hours.
I may be completely wrong on this. But I swear it is moving due west.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2471 - Sun Sep 01 2002 05:06 PM

Bruce...if it's anywhere near where Kristin Dodd said it was, it's right in the middle, underneath the convection.

Of course, it could be heading for the moon for all we know right now..

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: TD #5
      #2472 - Sun Sep 01 2002 05:16 PM

Daytona Beach has the highest strike possibility as of right now at 47 and Cedar Key on the W coast has a 15.

I still feel that there is a possibility that TD5 will continue to head w and exit into the GOM.
Is there anyone else that feels this might be a possibility?
Pinwheel Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD #5
      #2473 - Sun Sep 01 2002 05:53 PM

TD 5, where will he go?
i think the key to that is how well he develops! If he become a well developed system with deep convection i think we may see him take a turn to the NW and move inland or skirt the coast somewhere near the FL / GA border up to Brunswick. However, if he doesnot become a system with a lot of very deep convection i think we will see him take a more westerly course, and move onshore somewhere between Daytonna and Jacksonville.

As far as intensity goes... well an early landfall then he will be near 40 or 45 mph, but if he heads further North then perhaps nearer 50 mph.

Rich B

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 24 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 17813

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center