SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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It looks like the ridge may still be building to the west a bit more. Not much, but a little, I think. If that is the case than I guess my theory on the more northerly track sooner would be out the window. I thought I would be getting better at this by now.
ShawnS
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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yes it has gone more nnw this could increase the threat to fla,
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Jason, does the ensemble normally do a better job than all the other models? Is that why they rely on it so heavily?
The SENS is still a work in progress, but it has had some SCARY successes both in operational use and in post-analysis of past storms. From my understanding (and Clark is much more qualified to answer this than me) once the SENS latches onto a track (which it has done with for a while now) it does a very good job, without the run to run variations that sometimes plague other models (or at least not the same magnitude). It's not perfect, and had had it's share of out to lunch moments, but it has some really good track record.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Jason. I've got to take my son to football practice, so I'll see ya'll later. I need a break from this stuff. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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21:15 took another wobble to the west... I don't think the overall motion with the system right now is NNW ... motion right now somewhere between wnw and nw would be my best guess...
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Timothy
Unregistered
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Colleen,
I think you can rest assured the TPC folks are doing their best. Inundated with information, they're probably not ready to make a quick switch on track forecast...probably a course of least regret.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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I could have sworn I read about hail in on an advisory ... 27a? But when I go back and look that info isn't there. Or in any of the other advisories and discussions I checked. Weird. It is there somewhere..
'shana
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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There were 2 vortex reports from that had small hail in the SE eyewall...could that have been it?
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Jason Kelley
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Right, that makes sense - I've seen that too.
Nice one
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meto
Weather Guru
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latest satt. it is moving more to the nnw
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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FYI, Steve Jerve on WFLA-8 (NBC) here in Tampa just said their forecast is tracking a little to the east of where the puts it. Also, Hillsborough County just gave a press conference saying they plan to issue mandatory evacuation orders for Levels 1, 2 & 3 on Monday.
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meto
Weather Guru
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the track is shifting more to the east.
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sullynole
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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i believe it was a meteorologist at channel 8 that also swore on his job that was going to make a direct landfall in tampa.
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John
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I thought I saw it moving more towards the w to wnw again.
ShawnS
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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That's odd. Channel 8 was the one running all the commercials saying that their model forecasted a Port Charlotte landfall for 3 days out.
No one knows where it's going to end up at this point, I was just putting another point of view out there.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
Eye is more defined and back to NNW track over SW Jamaica.
Good look at Atlantic Ridge holding it's own against outflow from as well.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
I thought I saw it moving more towards the w to wnw again.
Not the storm at the moment, the forecast track to Cuba and up. 
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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The track is shifting west isn't it ?
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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i think the track later tonite will shift more to the right (east)the ridge has stopped moving west.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Accuweather.com has a good color water vapor map. The ridge has stopped moving, it hasn't budged for the last hour or so.
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