scottsvb1
Unregistered
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There is no wsw jog,, just about due west with the eye interacting with the mid level flow e-w along the coast of the island. This is expected and expect a wnw - nw course to begin against by morning. One important thing to note. The models again shift west. This might be in part of the upper low way to the east ( south of Bermuda) itching more W then expected and pushing the N-S ridge a bit more into the Bahamas-Eastern Florida. We will now know by tomorrow afternoon if landfall will happen Tampa or south. By time the 12Z runs come out this afternoon coming up and they have the same area as the currect oz run or further west, then a shift to the Panhandle near Panama City will be the location of landfall on weds. Again really we will look at the 6z runs and expecially the major 12Z run on saturday to know if Tampa south might be in only TS winds or less.
scottsvb
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Quote:
By the way I can't ever remember a "major" hurricane landfalling in the big bend region of north Florida.
Thomas F. Giella
I can't recall a "major" hurricane ever landfalling as far north as the Tampa Bay area. ... unless you count the 1921 hurricane (cat 3?)
-------------------- "Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
Edited by RevUp (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:56 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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one more thing...ifTom Terry didn't really say that then i'm all wrong about the whole thing. i respect him and really think he's good. of all the local stations i watch his is the one i choose over the others. that being said, i will still trust the over anyone else no matter how qualified they may be.
Agree with you about . They are the ones to take heed of. Tom Terry got my kudos for . He was the best of the best. I think durning his ego showed just a bit but over all He is "the" weather guru in the Orlando area.
Will sign off soon for the night.
Best of luck to our friends in Jamaica. Its a rough night for that island.
I'm agreeing with most here who are thinking a central florida West coast landfall is the target area.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I'm not seeing anything where one model is that far ahead of another right now. has been a little out of it to me. seems to be prone to changes. I have actually liked UKMET's performance. has been good too. I see nothing that would allow me to choose between any of them at the moment, though.
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Fred08
Unregistered
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wow....latest ...more to west and near panama city? i think this computer has been doing real well this season.... sept. 15 00Z just south of PC.... keeps trending west... all we can hope for is for shear to kick in... also in the run.... looks to cross western tip of cuba........ right now i think we have a cat 5 and jamica....well....god bless them.....
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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There was a WSW wobble. Maybe not a jog-but a wobble. Does seem to be moving West at this time.
Joe Bastardi was right. He predicted it a week ago. is causing serious knashing of teeth.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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to the Florida panhandle near PC
96 hours
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif
108 hours
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_50.gif
120 hours
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_50.gif
what will be in store for the morning forecast track... ???
would love to know what the model is forecasting right now..... hmmmm
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danielw
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Plane is about 351 miles from the center of .
Should be giving a Vortex fix within the hour.
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Clark
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In looking at the records, I cannot recall a hurricane of any significance making landfall between Apalachicola and near Cedar Key since before the mid-1800s. That's not to say it can't happen -- you can take the approach that they are due, or take the approach that it's not likely to happen still.
NOGAPS is the furthest west with the storm, but something troubles me about the past few runs of the model. It develops a "child low" in the wake of in the central Caribbean -- essentially, a small piece of energy from remains behind as the storm moves away and sits over the central Caribbean Sea. I can't buy that happening, and I wonder if that has any impact on the track forecast. That is beyond my knowledge, unfortunately.
Ivan's jog to the west today was likely caused a bit by the asymmetry of the storm - convective drag. I can't go into more detail about it though as I don't full understand the mechanics behind it, however, but that appears to be one of the causes.
Intensity - don't know if I've ever seen a storm so round and robust as . I don't know how much longer it can keep it up, to tell the truth, as storms like this rarely stay this well defined for that long. Outflow is excellent SW counterclockwise to N and good in the remainder of the storm. It's just so well-defined as a storm. Recon should be out there shortly to give us a center fix -- will we break 920? My bets are on yes. The flight-level winds should begin/continue to respond to the drop in pressure beginning about now.
Track -- more concerned about parts of the peninsula today, particularly north of Tampa, but not willing to change my projections yet. Anyone from Pensacola to Key West needs to watch this one, as timing and wobbles may be critical in the long run. I still believe the area between Panama City and St. Marks is under the greatest threat, but due to slight weaknesses in the subtropical ridge and the position of the eastern trough, I'm not as confident in that as yesterday. The models I trust, though, are still within that narrower region...so we'll see how things play out.
Intensity -- the storm is more than likely a category 5 at this time, and depending upon eyewall replacement cycles will likely remain at such until it crosses Cuba. That could mean a day or two with a category 5 hurricane on our hands. I do not anticipate this storm remaining that strong after crossing Cuba nor restrengthening after doing so. Depending on the ultimate track, a low-end 3 to low-end 4 is what I am thinking at landfall. A track towards SW Florida or the central Panhandle is more likely at the higher end of that, whereas a track towards the western Florida peninsula is likely on the lower end of that. Shear is forecast to increase, but it has been forecast to increase for some time now yet has not done so. To tell the truth, I do not anticipate for it to do so to a large degree -- this storm is, in effect, controlling its own environment to some degree. And, once the storm rounds the base of the ridge and accelerates a bit towards landfall, the effective shear out of the S/SW may well be canceled out to some degree by the forward motion. Also of note is the position of the loop current in the Gulf and the recovery of the waters since (as stayed very near to shore and will likely have a minor impact on as it is)...to what degree they have recovered, particularly below the surface, and to what extent the loop current may be present in the eastern Gulf will control the intensity towards landfall.
Forward motion: the system should begin to slow a bit more once it passes Jamaica and take a day and a half to two days or so from now to inch towards Cuba. From there, the storm should slowly cross the island and gain some forward speed -- albeit not nearly as much as -- as it passes northward towards Florida. Landfall in the four and a half to five day time period -- Wednesday -- is what I am looking at for right now. A track inland further south will likely bring the storm in sooner of course, perhaps as early as early Tuesday or even late Monday. Tending later, though.
And, as always...take everything you read besides the official forecast with a grain of salt. This represents my opinions only and, of course, I don't represent or the Superensemble in any way. By the way...the fee for getting access to the hurricane track forecasts was made known to me today...$30,000/year. Gulp.
In any case, let's see whatthis storm does in the next 36 hours -- hopefully by then, we'll know much more as to where it is going.
No comment about the "other" hurricanes!
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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SirCane
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I would love to know what the top secret model is up to. Had it just West of Pensacola last I heard! Wish I knew why it's so top secret.
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Clark
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As much as I think the may be right in a further westward track of , I must note that its track errors to 5 days were the worst of any of the major models with and that, on the whole, it has not been one of the better performing dynamical models this (or in the past few) season(s).
NOGAPS track errors with on the 4-5 day time scale were on the order of 350+ miles. official track errors were on the order of 150 miles, for reference. Note that the official and Superensemble were both about 150mi off at 5 days -- the primarily due to actual direction (and landfall point), the Superensemble primarily due to timing (but nailing the landfall location). Similar results were seen with . Just something to keep in mind here.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Amazing but some areas still have phones and the radio station is still streaming.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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It's not really top secret, but it is still technically experimental and the /US govt. pays good money to to obtain the forecasts, develop the model, and keep it proprietary. There are patents out on the processes used in the model, for what its worth.
And to clear up a misconception earlier, as I also noted in a previous thread...the Superensemble has *never* been west of Pensacola. The furthest west it has been at landfall is near Apalachicola, and the furthest west it has been before landfall is towards Ft. Walton Beach. No run to date has taken it inland west of Pensacola.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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does anyone have a link for Cuban radar?
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Where did you get that info about the model? Heard different from 3 different people.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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It's not really top secret, but it is still technically experimental and the /US govt. pays good money to to obtain the forecasts, develop the model, and keep it proprietary. There are patents out on the processes used in the model, for what its worth.
I know this will sound stupid, but if the U.S. Government is paying for it, then WE the TAXPAYERS are funding it. Therefore, just like we are entitled to see what else they're spending our money on, we should have access to it also.
But who listens to me? Not even my dog.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wxwatcher2
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Shhhh.
We;re not supposed to mention the superensamble.
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InORLANDO
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Excuse me but I have been lurking here for quite a few years. Did I hear the US government is paying for the models and not making them available to th the gerneral public? I will bring this up with "friends" if this is the case.
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Do any of you good people out there have a link for Cuban radar?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Let me check on the cuban radar. There was a link on here last month with .....
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