Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25273 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 AM

They have that guy from the TWC onboard the recon for this flight and next few, im sure it was him who reported that to TWC as he is working for them. I do expect the winds to be back up to Cat 5 at 5am,,, pressure who knows.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
GFS shifts west too... [Re: Clark]
      #25274 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 AM

Haven't seen this posted yet, but the GFS shifted west too with the 00Z run, now calling for landfall in ~96hr near Tampa Bay on a north to north-northeast heading into the Lake City area, then into Georgia along the coast, followed by a journey up to Columbia, SC and a north-northwestward movement into the Appalachians. Would not be surprised to see a bit further west track at 5a...one which I don't plan on being awake to see.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: GFS shifts west too... [Re: Clark]
      #25275 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:32 AM

clark, when do sat pics come back on line?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: GFS shifts west too... [Re: Clark]
      #25276 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 AM

A track you may not want to see either!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Duncan
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25277 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:34 AM

Maybe the Weather Channel recieved wrong information. I just have a hard time believing that a storm can intensify 35 MPH, especially when the eye is that close to land. If true, that is just amazing.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? [Re: danielw]
      #25278 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:38 AM

Gee, thanks, Daniel. Now I'll NEVER sleep tonight, ROFLOL! FWIW, I saw 2 turtles crossing the road today (at a very slow place) and my husband said he saw a dead alligator on SR 60 in Bartow.

As far as the pressure drop....remember the other night when it jumped up to 160mph? The lowest pressure at one point was 915mb on Thurs. 5AM advisory. I wouldn't be surprised at all given the fact that it hasn't made landfall ...yet.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Duncan]
      #25279 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:39 AM

URNT12 KNHC 110612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0612Z
B. 17 DEG 22 MIN N
77 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2425 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 020 DEG 138 KT
G. 290 DEG 016 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3073 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 1809A Ivan OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Duncan]
      #25280 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:39 AM

I dunno bout that vortex message but I think it "may" have been true. Just a classic case of NHC being alittle conservative and not jumping the gun maybe? They could be trying to keep the message away from the public until a few more recon passes can verify whether or not it was true. This is just my best guess for now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth offline
Unregistered




Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25281 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM

Want to go to sleep, but I can't until I find out if the pressure really did fall that much and I see the newest sat picks. Sad I know.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ivan Update [Re: danielw]
      #25282 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM

M. CO12-40..........(concentric eyewalls at 12 and 40 miles)
P. AF963 1809A Ivan OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z....(158.91mph/flt lvl or 143mph at the surface)
There's the vortex. I don't know where Dave got his info. However this is now 33 minutes old. I appologize for creating a stir. I won't quote TWC anymore!

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25283 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM

Wxwatcher, they will be available probably in a half-hour or so. The eclipse period is ending about now, but there is some delay before new images are available.

New vortex out...no confirmation of 905mb or intense flight level winds...

(edited to remove...it's already twice above)

Essentially, the minimum pressure isn't as low as the 2am advisory, while the flight level winds are still catching up to the low pressure. The storm is healthy, but not as healthy as a 905mb pressure. Perhaps they recoded those winds at a pressure level of 905mb, or a few hundred meters above the surface -- that is believeable...just not a surface pressure that low, at least not yet (gulp).

That's all for this evening...get some rest everyone, and good night.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Sat Sep 11 2004 02:42 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ivan Update [Re: bsnyder]
      #25284 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 AM

He didn't mention storm surge, only said that the entire state could see extremely bad conditions even if it just skirts the coast. I don't even want to think what an actual landfalling hurricane Ivan would be like.

I feel like a little kid breaking my curfew...I have a LONG day tomorrow....I should have been sleeping hours ago.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: Clark]
      #25285 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 AM

Hey Clark, Wasnt the 920mb pressure estimated, not actually measured? That could be why its 923, since an estimate isnt perfect. Otherwise, probably some very strong winds in the NE quad, wish they could get in there and sample it. Looking at the TCHP I think if Ivan can avoid some shear and an ERC he'll probably hit cat5

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: Clark]
      #25286 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 AM

got to be warren sending info..... what does line M. mean?

could be possible...they went inbound on west side....near 290....strongest could be ne side


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: mikeG]
      #25287 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:55 AM

TWC just showed ob 9
fl lv at 7596ft
wonder if concentric eyewall has something in there?
press....923


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
john03
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: mikeG]
      #25288 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:57 AM

URNT11 KNHC 110645
97779 06454 70161 76309 30600 21043 10079 /3089
RMK AF963 1809A Ivan OB 14


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: mikeG]
      #25289 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:59 AM

Line "M". Concentric eyewalls. Inner and Outer eyewalls. Rare phenomenon that appears when the storm is going through eyewall replacement cycles. Outer wall develops, and replaces the Inner wall. The outer wall then shrinks as the pressure drops and wind speed increase.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: danielw]
      #25290 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:05 AM

just saw 645 sat shot

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: mikeG]
      #25291 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:07 AM

looks like eye missed well south of island.... more of west than north track

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeG
Unregistered




Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info [Re: mikeG]
      #25292 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:09 AM

sat shot

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 510 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 29573

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center