berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
Last couple of satellite images show a jog to the west. It's going to be close, but the core may wobble enough west to miss Jamaica with it's eye core.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
|
|
Lol, Colleen!
I have no idea! Well, I can *guess*... As of 10:35 EST...
The trough looks to be hanging stong.... 12 hours from now may tell a much different story, but either the Atlantic ridge will shove East over the Everglades, or push it West up the Westenr coast of Florida. Total Wishcasting, IMO, but it's all I've got.
We'll see tomorrow, I think. Or after Cuba, anyway. It's going to be another wild ride.
I just can't get a feel for much beyond 12 hours....
|
richiesurfs
Unregistered
|
|
Let me just say that any local meteorolgists on any of the stations I watch in my area..i.e Tom Terry, Tom Sorrells, has more knowledge in their pinky finger than I have all together and I understand that totally. That being said I don't believe any of them should be forecasting anything that undermines what the puts out. My feeling is that the has more expertise and tools at their disposal than any of these guys have. They are excellent forecasters in their own right but they still are not as good as the . To say they don't agree wiith the 's forecast just makes an already confusing situation even more confusing..especially with people already being on edge enough. They can't stick their head in the sand but they really need to stick with the regardless of what they might "feel" about the track of a given storm. My prayers are totally with Jamaica right now!
|
rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
|
|
Well, I spit my Scotch on my monitor over the "A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OFTHE TRACK COULD BRING INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OFFLORIDA" part of the discussion.
Gee, thanks.
Meanwhile, Jamaica get's hammered!...
|
Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
|
|
Gawrsh, ya'll I just don't know what to think about this storm....
Wherever it hits in the , it's going to be really bad, and the aftereffects could be even worse further inland.
I know that in North Ga...(Atlanta to the north) can't take much more rain before it's "Treetops keep falling on my roof". I mean on Tuesday my 2 block area of Midtown Atlanta was probably the ONLY part of Midtown and Buckhead NOT to lose power.....
Further north, the mountains of North Carolina as well as the Northern Piedmont of Virginia as well as my former hometown of Roanoke, Va are just cleaning up the major flooding from ....
I guess, I'm venting here, but I have a good friend, In Orlando, whose parents lost their house during and she's so spooked that she's bringing them to Atlanta with her this weekend.
I know that this seems minor to everyone else in Florida who's probably going through PTSD with two hurricanes and now ....
Finally, take the time if you live in the south to go to your nearest Publix and donate some money to the American Red Cross or look them up in your local phone book and donate that way.
If you're in Central Florida and you see anyone from BellSouth or Georgia Power, go up and shake their hand and just say thank you, because they are taxed to the limit as well...
Thanks for this bit of time on the soapbox and now back to the news about Rafael Furcal......
|
HMY
Unregistered
|
|
Looking at the probabilities as much as I can make sense of them put The Keys, Ft. Myers to Venice higher than the rest of Florida. Does that fluctuate or only increase with time?
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Guys, Mike put up a new thread like an hour ago...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
|
|
Well, I saved up about $1,500+ to pay off bills this month... guess what happened? freaked me out so much I spent all that and more for a generator, a sub-panel to wire up my house to the generator, and gas for the generator, supplies, etc. Egads, I'm in the hole this month! ( a side note: Worth every penny after 60 hours without power!)
Not to mention if I Bug-Out for ! 3 to 5 days for a motel room? AUUGGHH!!!!!
Meanwhile, I'm not working either!!!
Jeez, let Winter come on and stop this!!!
(slightly freaked in Ocala...) 
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
The probabilities are one of the must confusing products puts out. I almost wish they did not have it. It is simply a percentage chance with a factor of time that the storm will pass within a certain distance of the point. his advisory was within 65 nautical miles of the particular point. Therfore most places nearby are going to have a higher percentage.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Probabilities are the.....
CHANCES OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH A GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.....
Case in point... if were to skirt the entire west coast of Florida, and the eye were to be within 65 miles or less off the coast, then every city on west coast within this 65 mile range would basically receive a 99% probability rating at some point in time as the storm tracks off to the north.... you don't have to have a direct hit of the eye to get the 99% probability rating
reading posts off another web page (storm2k) who's members are listening to a Jamaican radio and are describing the radio events on Jamaica right now as they are playing out...... this is going to be an extremely catastrophic event down there... no telling how many people are going to be killed..... a very sad night indeed for Jamaica.....
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Um...Mike put up a new thread about an hour ago...what more can I say...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
As LI Phil has noted, a new Main News Page Article has been posted (quite some time ago), so I'm going to lock down this one for awhile - it had drifted significantly off-topic anyway. The current item of interest is and his impact on Jamaica - and posts about favorite newscasters and current budgets really belong in a different Forum. Please stay on topic.
Thanks,
ED
Ed Dunham
CFHC Forum Administrator
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
