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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Satellite Eclipse [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25191 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:08 AM

Here's the latest shot from GHCC, doesn't look like landfall-yet.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES03452004255wWvPQO.jpg


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Justin in Miami
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Why the more west movement? [Re: kelcot]
      #25192 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:11 AM

Frank P....I was thinking the same thing...maybe interaction with the mountains on the island? I have heard this can cause the eye to sort of rotate around them and resume course....hmm that's a question for the mets on this board...and btw...where are they? j/k I am sure they are very busy and in awe of what they are watching on sat loops.

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BillD
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Re: Ivan and Florida [Re: Bev]
      #25193 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:14 AM

Bev, I agree, but I have to be careful what I say or some mod willl edit my post. So all I wll say is I agree.

Bill


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Fred08
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Re: NOGAPS [Re: BillD]
      #25194 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:22 AM

anyone see the NOGAPS 48hr run..... looks to me to be further west and south than previous runs....hmmmm..

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richiesurfs
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25195 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:23 AM

Colleen...My post wasn't directed at you. Someone posted earlier that they saw Tom Terry say that He didn't exactly agree with the NHC's forecast track and that is what I was referencing. He;s entitled to his opinions but I still think he should not be undermining what the NHC says... just my opinion.

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Frank P
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Re: Why the more west movement? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #25196 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:24 AM

the last 1:45 minutes of IR loops shows Ivan on a basically west track, or perhaps just north of due west... since its so close to the island it is basically a worst case scenario set up... they are getting pounded with the ne quadrant, and even though the eye in not onland at the present time... its awful close to the island right now and I'm relatively sure parts of the eye wall is just playing havoc with poor Jamaica

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SirCane
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: richiesurfs]
      #25197 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM

Ivan is moving West right now and even has had a slight WSW jog. The eye looks like it's going to miss the Jamaica coast for sure. I saw this happening early this afternoon.

I think Ivan is going to go between Pensacola and Panama City. The more it moves West like it does the farther West Ivan will hit in the U.S.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ivan and Florida [Re: BillD]
      #25198 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM

The local met here in orlando has said that Ivan will be a cat V until it landfalls Cooobah (cuba). Then down to a 4 and eventually a 3 near the fla panhandle if that track goes that way.
My question is after it enters the Fla Straits near Key West, what prevents it from going back to a Cat V?
Does it have anything to do with a Northward movement?
I've told family and friends today not to worry that it will not be a cat V byt the time it gets to central Florida but I just realized I don't know the reasoning behind it. I'm just repeating what the Mets said and what I've seen forecast.


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RevUp
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Re: Why the more west movement? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #25199 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM

As very fluid systems, hurricanes like to take the path of least resistance. You're right ... the topography is enough to steer Ivan to the left before it jumps north again, plus the upper level trofing to the north of Cuba may be helping to contain Ivan to the south on a more westward track. Amazing how accurate NHC has been with this Jamaica forecast. It will be interesting to watch once it clears Jamaica!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Colleen A.
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W/S Turn [Re: rule]
      #25200 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:28 AM

Tom Terry just said that it may be the strengthening of the storm that may spare Jamaica a direct landfall. However, if the hurricane force winds go out 60 miles, what's the difference between a direct landfall and a brush? Florida's looking at the same exact scenario.

Oh yeah...according to the latest update, they show Ivan crawling up along the west coast of Florida as a CAT 4 until it reaches the Panhandle...as a Cat 3. . A 30-mile jog to the east could be the difference between "bad" and "extremely bad". I don't know how big Ivan is, but I think everyone in Florida will feel the effects of Ivan, unless there is a major change in the track in the next 2 days.
Tom Terry just said that "for now we'll stick with NHC's forecast, the models are battling it out right now, we'll see what it brings in the next couple of hours."
I report, you decide.

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rule
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: SirCane]
      #25201 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM

The eye looks to me about 30 miles offshore? Still, they are getting the NE component...

Signing off for tonight... will get up for 5 am update.. Just another day in Florida!


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SirCane
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Re: Why the more west movement? [Re: Frank P]
      #25202 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Look at this. It wobbled WSW.


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Rasvar
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: richiesurfs]
      #25203 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM

Oh my. They are actually giving DynaGel tv time. I don't even want to think about the tallk that will start.

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Thomas predicts landfall at Siesta Key [Re: Frank P]
      #25204 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:31 AM

Email as of 11:30 pm:

The intense eyewall of CAT 5 Ivan is just south of the capital city of Kingston Jamaica at 11:15 pm EDT/0315 UTC. This is a catastrophic event we are watching and it will result in large loss of life. If you collect satellite images of tropical cyclones it's time to capture images of Ivan now because he is the perfect storm at the moment.

I forecast a landfall of a CAT 3 hurricane along the SW coast of Florida between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay on Tuesday September 14, 2004, with a bulls eye on Siesta Key. Then we will see an inland track towards the NNE-NE possibly once again impacting the Orlando metro area. Statistically a second landfalling major tropical cyclone into Charlotte Harbor twice in one season is remote but the shallow estuary will be impacted in some negative way. A right turn into the SW coast due to speed divergence much like Charley is probable with Ivan, but Ivan will move slower then Charley. I forecast Ivan to be only a CAT 3 at landfall due to developing SW shear in the region.

By the way I can't ever remember a "major" hurricane landfalling in the big bend region of north Florida.


Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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WeatherNLU
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Re: Why the more west movement? [Re: SirCane]
      #25205 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:31 AM

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html





Surely a WSW jog. The center should have passed over eastern Jamaica with the trajectory it WAS on. It's now passing south.

Poor Jamaica, they have been embedded in the northern eyewall for 3 hours now.
Look at this. It wobbled WSW.

Edited by WeatherNLU (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:33 AM)


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richiesurfs
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25207 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:32 AM

one more thing...ifTom Terry didn't really say that then i'm all wrong about the whole thing. i respect him and really think he's good. of all the local stations i watch his is the one i choose over the others. that being said, i will still trust the NHC over anyone else no matter how qualified they may be.

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RevUp
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Re: Ivan and Florida [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25208 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:34 AM

Quote:

My question is after it enters the Fla Straits near Key West, what prevents it from going back to a Cat V?
Does it have anything to do with a Northward movement?



This from the latest tropical weather discussion "... AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING SW MAY IMPINGE UPON THE OUTFLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ... THE BIG FEATURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO FRACTURE FORMING A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 29N60W. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW RETROGRADING QUICKLY WESTWARD AND ERODING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE W ATLC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SPREADING WESTWARD AND NOW COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE W ATLC TO THE SE UNITED STATES COAST."
In a word, "shear."


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SirCane
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Re: W/S Turn [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25209 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:35 AM

I think NOGAPS has a better handle on Ivan than the others do.

This thing is moving due West right now.


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mud1967
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Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25210 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:40 AM

Interesting and wonderful news that they are making evacuatiing more easy. So many don't leave because they know how bad it is to be stuck.

Tallahassee news 27 is going out on a limb and forcasting that they think it will be a US landfall. Now what's up with being so general that they can't even say it will be in Florida most likely. Maybe their thinking it will hit Minnesota.


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Second Shift
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Re: W/S Turn [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25211 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:40 AM

Colleen-I'm amazed at your knowledgel I just want to say Godspeed to those millions dealing with Ivan the Terrible. I have never seen a hurricane (much less a tornado). I cannot imagine what it would be like. We have plenty of room up here in Iowa for those who have had enough!

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