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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Canadian Shifts West too [Re: tom5r]
      #25232 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:43 AM

Cuban Radar Link
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/dia.asp


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Canadian Shifts West too [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25234 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:49 AM

FYI-the word is spelled superensemble, also, hobbyist, not hobbiest. (Don't mind me, I'm a nitpicker)

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Londovir
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Re: Canadian Shifts West too [Re: tom5r]
      #25235 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:51 AM

You can find Cuban radar (when it's available), at Cuban Radar

I am having trouble getting in to their site, so it's probably being overwhelmed with traffic from the net.

Just one comment about the FSU model. I agree with others on this one. If it's patented, they are legally protected from people stealing their proprietary system. There's little reason to keep the data so restricted from the general public - and less reason to keep the data from college degree'd professional meteorologists without hefty $30K price tags. I can maybe understand not letting Joe Public see it, as people without knowing about models may believe in an experimental model over the official, professional NHC directives. But to keep folks like JK (great initials, by the way, same as mine, heck, same first name even), Clark, etc from having access without the big money is ludicrous. Patent it, protect it, and keep getting your money from the government. It's things like this that start conspiracy theories...

Just to have some value to my post, don't forget you can also check buoys in the Caribbean at Buoy Reports Grand Cayman is starting to get gusty winds, according to the most recent buoy reports.

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Londovir


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john03
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Re: recon [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25236 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 AM

18.4n
79.1w
getting close to storm..... looks to be going down in alt now too..... think 10ft now....meaning now at outer feeder bands, on inbound from nw to cente @539z?

URNT11 KNHC 110539
97779 05394 70184 79108 30800 04049 10069 /3099
RMK AF963 1809A Ivan OB 08


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tom5r
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Re: Canadian Shifts West too [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25237 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 AM

Thankyou so much for the cuban radar link. I suspect I'll be seeing Ivan appear in the not so distant future.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: Londovir]
      #25238 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 AM

From The Weather Channel. Recon measured max winds at 187kts(215mph at flight level and 194mph at the surface!!) and pressure down to 905mb ( Same as Camille's lowest pressure)

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 01:59 AM)


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Clark
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Re: Canadian Shifts West too [Re: Londovir]
      #25239 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:57 AM

Just a note here: I *do* have access to the FSU Superensemble tracks. They are posted here for members of the FSU Dept. of Meteorology to look at - but not take, take pictures of, etc - and interpret. We are the only other group other than the NHC that gets the data.

Its development is a funded project, but I should clarify that it is not just the government doing so. They do receive funding from other agencies in and not in the government. It is not just a hurricane track/intensity model but also a global model used by government agencies, consulting firms who pay for access to its output, and others.

To answer SirCane's question, if I haven't done so in the above...I have access to it directly, so I've seen it with my own eyes.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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john03
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: danielw]
      #25240 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 AM

who read report? at TWC?

cat 5? major cat 5?


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Clark
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UKMET shifts west [Re: Clark]
      #25241 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:00 AM

The UKMET model has shifted quite a bit west with the 00Z run this morning. It now brings the storm inland near St. George Island, riding along U.S. 319 until it is almost directly over Tallahassee, then moving NNE into Georgia and South Carolina before slowing dramatically. Landfall timing is around 9-12z 9/15, or early morning Wednesday.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: john03]
      #25242 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM

Dave Schwartz read it off of a printout he had in his hand. I posted it as soon as he read it.

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scottsvb1
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Re: UKMET shifts west [Re: Clark]
      #25243 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM

They all shifted west clark.

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: john03]
      #25244 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM

905 MB's??????

Yikes...Ivan likes Jamaican waters


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25245 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:03 AM

Jamaican waters aren't as warm as the Cayman waters!

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john03
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: danielw]
      #25246 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM

have you seen vortex?

jamaica is going to be ugly in morning......bless them all


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BabyCat
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: danielw]
      #25247 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM

???????
905???


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ivan Update [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25248 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:06 AM

wasn't Gilbert's lowest around 888?

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DroopGB31
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: danielw]
      #25249 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:07 AM

Dude are you serious? 905mb?? Cant wait to see the vortex message. Thats freakin insane if true!!!

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: BabyCat]
      #25250 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:07 AM

Now hearing 920 mbs....makes more sense......

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john03
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Re: if recon found..... [Re: jth]
      #25251 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 AM

why is the 2am than at 155mph.....why didn't they wait on recon?

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Duncan
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Re: Ivan Update [Re: BabyCat]
      #25252 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 AM

The 2AM update still has 155 MPH and pressure of 920 mb. If this vortex report came before the advisory you think they would update it.

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