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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RevUp
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Re: Ronn [Re: SC Bill]
      #25356 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:26 AM

Quote:

I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan.



Yes, this is the first year of 5-day fcsts being released to the public, and we're seeing some of the short-term effects of how the media is handling the new information. Seems like a lot more confusion because we hear more people saying a variety of different things farther in advance. A lot of people talk as if the storm is going to hit their little corner of the world, which might just be true in some circumstances. The media can do a better job of educating, rather than just reacting to and propogating the hysteria.
The forecast tracks, models, etc. may seem a little more eratic, but that's because we've had way more than our usual number of storms around Florida, and Florida is at the latitude where a number of storms make their transition from the easterly tropics to the variable sub-tropics. The most difficult part of forecasting tropical cyclones is when they slow down or turn. Actually, I thought NHC has been very stable and consistent this year, despite the very unique challenges.

Edited by RevUp (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:39 PM)


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RevUp
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Re: GOM fo sho [Re: HCW]
      #25358 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 AM

Agree entirely! Ivan bears watching until it's beyond your area. Again, pay attention to that "cone of concern" based on NHC forecast. There's a lot that goes into those forecasts!

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HMY
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Re: Ronn [Re: RevUp]
      #25360 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 AM

Charley didn't give too much notice about his landfall. Apparently Ivan does his own thing as well. Weren't all the forecasts making him a direct hit into Jamaica? Thank God our technology was a bit off and maybe they have been spared a bit. Point is, how can we look days into the future, when hurricanes change and catch us off guard in just a matter of hours??

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Redbird
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Re: GOM fo sho [Re: RevUp]
      #25361 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 AM

In reference to whether some area is out of the woods or not, back to Isabel last year we were on guard till it passed our area on the coast. Just the idea of having something that powerful hugging the coast as Ivan is appearing to do soon is enough to keep most people on alert. It is truly time to make sure your weather radio is fully stocked with spare batteries!

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RevUp
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Re: Ronn [Re: HMY]
      #25362 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 AM

Quote:

Charley didn't give too much notice about his landfall. Apparently Ivan does his own thing as well. Weren't all the forecasts making him a direct hit into Jamaica? Thank God our technology was a bit off and maybe they have been spared a bit. Point is, how can we look days into the future, when hurricanes change and catch us off guard in just a matter of hours??



It's a miracle that we have the technology that even allows us to guestimate where these cyclones are moving with some pretty good accuracy. The problem is that we don't take the errors of distance, timing and intensity into account when we receive the forecasts ... we're fixated on a line; we don't see the forest because of the trees

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Redbird
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Re: Ronn [Re: RevUp]
      #25363 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 AM

Charley taught me to look at the areas to the right and left of the center line track and recheck my vulnerabilities......IOW's board up automatically at the hint of a storm coming by. NHC is an excellent resource which tells us all to look at the error margins................I commend them for their hard work.

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RevUp
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Re: Ronn [Re: Redbird]
      #25364 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 AM

Even if NHC forecasts Ivan to be farther west of Florida, all of us along the Gulf coast need to stay alert.

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ronn [Re: RevUp]
      #25365 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:00 AM

I'm alert but, I'm gonna enjoy the weekend and get away from this tracking for a few hours.

Should be a great day in Florida so lets get outside and enjoy it and step away from the computer.
At least that's what I'm gonna do.......hard as it might be.....I'm going......I really am......


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52255225
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Re: Ronn [Re: RevUp]
      #25366 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 AM

A friend of mine just called me and said that Dr Steve Lyons was just on and had the center line into Tampa again I didnt see it. Did any of you? I know that the center line means nothing however just wondered if anyone saw that.

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RevUp
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Re: Ronn [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25367 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 AM

.. and just before we enjoy the beautiful weather ... here's a recent storm report from Jamaica
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

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SoonerShawn
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Re: Ronn [Re: RevUp]
      #25368 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 AM

I know it is just me but it sure looks like the trough may be getting somewhat weaker. But it is a WV so more than likely I'm wrong on this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

ShawnS


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Chad
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Re: Ronn [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25369 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 AM

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML

Check out the WV loop here.
Does it indicate that the ridge is weakening or pulling back? The SE edge seems to be breaking up some.

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scottsvb1
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Re: Ronn [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25370 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:50 AM

your friend was lying,, i didnt see that..lol anyways seriously though, tampa isnt out of the question. If you look at the water vapor loop you can see what could be the final determining factor on where Ivan will end up. There is a fast short wave pulse diving se into Kansas and Oklahoma from the Rockies and the Pacific northwest.....now since Ivan is moving slowly near 8mph and is expected to stay moving slowly the next 48 hours,, this should give this pulse time to dive down into the N central gulf by Monday morning. By then Ivan should be near 22N and 82W moving NNW or N. Should this pulse continue east ( which it could) then that would deflect the hurricane off to the NNE or even NE after it gets north of 25-27N and 84W. Looking like BigBend area right now but not sure yet,,,,so anywhere from Venice up to Ft Walton Beach needs to keep a eye on this. Right now S Florida shouldnt get more then TS force winds if the center makes landfall in west central forida. The keys still arent completely out of a threat to get hurricane force winds,,especially in Keywest, but landfall there is less then 20% right now.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25371 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:54 AM

Looking at the latest NHC track and the model runs, it as of now looks a lot like the track of Frances.

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HCW
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Re: Models [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #25372 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:57 AM

Quote:

Looking at the latest NHC track and the model runs, it as of now looks a lot like the track of Frances.




Don't you mean Charley ?

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Kimster
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Re: GOM fo sho [Re: HCW]
      #25373 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:58 AM

...or at least north of your location.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models [Re: HCW]
      #25374 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:00 PM

No, I am speaking of Frances and the last clustering of model runs for her.

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scottsvb1
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Re: Models [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #25375 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:02 PM

Frances came from the east,,,,,,,,plus the models were split with her too.

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LI Phil
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Re: Models [Re: HCW]
      #25376 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:06 PM

Morning/Afternoon, all...

Won't say anything more about 9/11 other than to remember those who gave the ultimate sacrifice to save others (fire/police/ems/et. al.) and the innocents who perished at the hands of the terrorists...several of whom I knew personally...OK that's it...onto Ivan:

How the hell did he dance around Jamaica like that? That's fantastic for the Island...still lots of destruction, but no direct hit...Rick...did you do some voodoo dance to save them? Well, whatever it was, maybe he's gonna give us all a break...doubtful...but possible.

Next up: Grand Cayman...I was there in 2000 and they were still, in some areas, recovering from Gilbert...amazing. Lets hope Ivan does the chicken dance around them too. Also visited Little Cayman and Cayman Brac...nothing but a couple of beautiful homes combined with some ramshackle huts there...let's hope they're spared.

I think Coop meant Charley, not Frances...boy are they taking similar paths.

Sticking with my SW Landfall, despite all the modeling and visuals to the contrary...if you are going to go down, you might as well take the ship with you, no? Naples landfall Tuesday afternoon. Probably be off by 500 miles and 24 hours, but at least I can admit a blown forecastsvb...

Anyhoo, today is a somber day for me personally but there's still the weather.

Peace, y'all.

Phil

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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scottsvb1
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Re: Models [Re: LI Phil]
      #25377 - Sat Sep 11 2004 12:08 PM

what you talking about blown forecast?

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