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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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52255225
Weather Guru


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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25401 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM

what did rick forecast? or where can i find his post. Thanks lil phil

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James88
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25402 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM

I wouldn't bet against it reaching CAT V status again, especially since the eye is becoming a little more distinct again. Hopefully it won't happen though.

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Crystal
Unregistered




Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #25403 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 PM

Use your energy to focus Ivan to the furthest of west points. NOT Florida or the East Coast states the damage is too much now. Focus and moved it west past land until it hits the Pacific cold water ridge --

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Keith234
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25404 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM

It will prob most likely get back to CAT 5 satus again, maybe even break it's own record of 919 mbs. That area under Cuba is known for where hurricanes bomb (Gilbert), they have help in outflow and the water temp is warmer, and to top it off hardly any shear. But the dry air over Cuba should hinder the devlopment of Ivan somewhat, or maybe it will never even effect him at all, who knows.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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52255225
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: James88]
      #25405 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM

I hope not! Havent seen you here lately welcome back!

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rule
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cranking up again [Re: rule]
      #25406 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM

Based on lastest frames I can find I think the eye is about to open up. It looks pretty healthy in there, although it looks like Jamaica is beginning to block off some of the power supply to Ivan. The North side looks thinner than the rest. If correct, this too shall pass.

Caymans are going to have a ringside seat for this. I just noticed that Grand Cayman could fit inside the Eye. Ick!

Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 PM)


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FireAng85
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25407 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:57 PM

What is that showing coming up into the southern part of Florida from south of Ivan??

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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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clyde w.
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: James88]
      #25408 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM

Of particular interest to me is the fact that the models now have a NE turn at the end of the tracks (after the storm comes onshore). Earlier they were mainly showing a due north component. If the NE turn is verified (does happen) timing will once again become critical in regard to the FL peninsula. Should Ivan dally around for a day like Frances did, and the NE turn becomes a reality, we could be back under the gun.

Of course, the conditions required to turn the storm NE may only exist further north, so this may not verify, but its something to watch.


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SoonerShawn
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North? [Re: Keith234]
      #25409 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...ne&pid=none

Please tell me where the northward movement is? I saw a little jog to the nw but now it seems it has gone back to the west again but no definite north to it.

ShawnS


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MrSpock
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Re: cranking up again [Re: rule]
      #25410 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM

991
URNT12 KNHC 111730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1730Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2414 M
D. 80 KT
E. 323 DEG 067 NM
F. 049 DEG 141 KT
G. 309 DEG 012 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 17 C/ 3089 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A Ivan OB 04
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NW QUAD 1726Z.
MAX FL TEMP 19C 304/06 NM FROM FL CNTR

Made it through ERC intact, not even much pressure change. Cat 5 is looking more likely in my opinion.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: 52255225]
      #25411 - Sat Sep 11 2004 01:59 PM

your right steve,, you did give out that forcaste,,or actually Guess.

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tazmanian93
Unregistered




Re: eye wall rebuilding project [Re: FireAng85]
      #25412 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 PM

Quote:

What is that showing coming up into the southern part of Florida from south of Ivan??




Can you send the link to what you see?


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Keith234
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Re: North? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25413 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM

Sometimes it just seems like it's going west because the system is spinning but if you plot the corridinates over say the last 12 hours then you can notice the movement. Keep in mind that a little jog here and there, adds on some mins of Latitude.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: 52255225]
      #25414 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM

>>> what did rick forecast? or where can i find his post. Thanks lil phil

You're joking right? And it's LI (as in Long Island) Phil, not lil Phil

You can find rick's forecasts on the previous two pages, also on every thread since about 1999.

Seriously though, he called for Ivan to miss Jamaica and it sure did. Right now, he's calling for it to get into the Yucatan Channel...a bit west of where the models are trending it, but he's been spot on thus far. No one but fool me has made a call after Coobah, but I can hazard a guess as to where he thinks it will go after that...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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FireAng85
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project [Re: tazmanian93]
      #25415 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

Look below Ivan and tracking up into Florida. What in the world is that?

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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52255225
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25416 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:03 PM

Ive been waiting for your forecast since yesterday. are you ready to give it yet? maybe too early?

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tenavilla
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Re: North? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25417 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 PM

I didn't see a jog either way. It was going through an ERC and I think the eye was just a little ragged. Sometimes that makes it look like a jog. In my extremely scientific method, I took a straightedge, held it up to the screen, made sure it was lined up at the "eye level" on both ends of the loop. That way you can get a general direction, wobbles aside. Personally, I think it's better that way because it may hop north, then west, but the end result is still NW.

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52255225
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25418 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:05 PM

yeah a lil typo there one too many l's.

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Keith234
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Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #25419 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:06 PM

Thanks Clark, your really know a lot about models so here is a question; how come they don't mix the GFS with another model that works good in predicting landfall, the best of both worlds? Don't want to interupt the Ivan conversation.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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willy
Unregistered




Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25420 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 PM

I think you are right about the so called trough affecting Ivan. I keep looking at the water vapor loops and the ridge of high pressure that is diving down across Cuba continues to move all of the cloud patterns off to the west.I may be wrong but I think Ivan may very well end up in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico if something doesn't give pretty soon. Also if you look at the water vapor loop for the Gulf of Mexico,it looks like the so called trough is being pushed back northward below Miss. & Alabama.

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