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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25421 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM

Am pretty weather ignorant here, but do these troughs and ridges really have a big effect on a hurricane that is a huge intensity of power?

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James88
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25422 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM

Is it just me, or does Ivan have mesovortices in his eye?

P.S. Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I haven't had a chance to read through all the posts.


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Keith234
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: HMY]
      #25423 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM

Everything has an effect on hurricanes, because they are in such a weak steerring currents, the slightest change can be very evident.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ShaggyDude
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: James88]
      #25424 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM

I concur; I do believe to see something inside the eye.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML


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Keith234
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: James88]
      #25425 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM

When the eye starts to clear out there is some residual cloud cover, that might be what you're seeing.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Second Shift
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: HMY]
      #25426 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM

HMY, go figure, I am from Iowa! I had the same question. Another question I have is how do the Fujita and the Saffir-Simpson scale compare in damage intensity? Anyone?

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Keith234
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Second Shift]
      #25427 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM

The fujita and the Saffir scale are totally different. The F5 twister packs increbile damage but to a small radius, while a hurricane packs less damage into a larger radius, the converse. Hope that helps.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Willy [Re: HMY]
      #25428 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM

Thanks for the 2nd on what I thought I was seeing. However, even IF the trough that is there now was to totally disappear at this moment, a new one is coming in from the Kansas/Oklahoma area as we speak that would catch Ivan and still pull him north to ne before it got into the central gulf.

ShawnS


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Clark
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project [Re: FireAng85]
      #25430 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:22 PM

FireAng85 -- those are just the spots where the model runs initialized Ivan, not other storms. It is just that not all of the models were started at the same time, and Ivan was at different spots when they were run....thus the different storm symbols.

Jason234 -- they do that to some degree in the official forecasts. And, it is not always hard and fast that the AVN/GFS will do well on timing but bad on location, the UKMET will do this, the NOGAPS will do that, and so on. To tell the truth though, taking all of that into account is what the FSU Superensemble and other multimodel ensemble forecasts (including model consensus tracks, to a lesser degree) try to do -- eliminate the known biases in model output tracks to come up with an improved forecast, both in terms of timing and location.

Note though how these multimodel ensembles are different than single-model ensembles, such as the GFS Ensemble forecast system. These single-model ensembles work by creating new model runs by tweaking the actual conditions in the atmosphere to see what the effects are on the weather pattern in the future. By combining all of these in a weighted fashion into one forecast, the hope is to eliminate a lot of biases that may arise in the main model forecast from bad data, missing data, or a bad handle on the current situation. The ultimate goal is the same, but the manner at which it is done - single model versus multiple model, actual weather/atmosphere dynamics versus pure statistics - is completely different.

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FireAng85
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project [Re: FireAng85]
      #25431 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:24 PM

ok, disregard my last post. I swear there was something there and now it's gone. Despite popular belief, I'm not crazy. It was there.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
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Second Shift
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Keith234]
      #25432 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:25 PM

Thanks Jason. You have excellent info. Not to take any focus away from Ivan, but I am a little lite in the lingo re Acronyms on the Forum. Any suggestions where to go?

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Second Shift]
      #25433 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:27 PM

So Clark what do you think of the pulse coming down from the southern plains will have if any affect on Ivan??? I think it will have a affect but i would like to hear your opinion if you have 1 on this, ty.

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Keith234
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Second Shift]
      #25434 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 PM

What do you mean by acronyms, converse? Converse means the exact opposite of the truth statement while an Inverse means to negate the turth statement.

This one's going in the comedy forum once we're through with Ivan!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 11 2004 02:42 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25435 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:29 PM

I'm not seeing the trough? Is it a thermal trough, that comes during the day and leaves during the night? Thanks

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25436 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM

I'm not sure who first tipped me off to this link. Might have been jamiewx, but not sure. This one belongs in everyone's bookmarks.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: Second Shift]
      #25437 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM

The Fujita scale was developed in the 1970s to classify the intensity of tornadoes. It is a subjective scale, as winds in a tornado are often not directly measured -- and it is not very safe to do so accurately, and very hard to do it accurately while staying safe! -- and are instead estimated based upon observed damage. It is a scale that bridges the gap between the Beaufort scale (mostly used by mariners for classifying wind speeds) with F1 starting at Beaufort 12 and the Mach scale, with F12 equal to Mach 1 (or 738mph). However, there have been no tornadoes definitively above F5 in recorded history.

The Saffir-Simpson scale was developed in 1969 as a means of classifying hurricane damage based upon intensity for a WMO project. The categories were developed by the then-director of the NHC, Dr. Simpson, along with Herbert Saffir, an engineer, and the speeds were assigned based upon breaks in observed damage. This contrasts with the Fujita scale, where the speeds were spread apart to bridge the Beaufort and Mach scales. Obviously, as most people know the Saffir-Simpson scale, a complete treatise on the subject is rather unnecessary. The NHC has a good reference on the types of storms by category (damage, surge, and other characteristics) on their webpage.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: Clark]
      #25438 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM

Hey Phil, you see that bout forecast is very simular to mine by 25N and 83-84W? LOL of course watching the impulse droping down... Just dont know where it will lay down for this to go due North or even NE.

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LI Phil
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Second Shift]
      #25439 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM

>>> I am a little lite in the lingo re Acronyms on the Forum. Any suggestions where to go

Right here. Either click on the "General Info" link to the left or click here and scroll down to the Acronym section

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25440 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:35 PM

Jesus scott,,,,,its boat,,,,learn to spell.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Jason234 [Re: Keith234]
      #25441 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

If you look around the Kansas area you can see the spinning and the trough that is trailing through and headed towards Texas. This would be "Plan B" if for some reason the first trough has no impact on Ivan.

ShawnS


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