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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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waatcher
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is the canadian model reliable? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25442 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM

is this a reliable model

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation


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LI Phil
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25443 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:37 PM

scott...lol...I was wondering what you refering to. That's a great link, especially for those of us like me who are quite challenged by numerical and text models...graphical ones work much better!

BTW, why is Cantore broadcasting from Punta Gorda? Do they really need a reminder or is it for the effect of showing all the damage from Charley? Either way, I think it's in bad taste.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: LI Phil]
      #25444 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:41 PM

Hes down there to collect sea shells from the aftermath of Charley, then im sure he will go north to the big bend area.

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Clark
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25445 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 PM

It might have an impact, yes, but moreso of one weakening the ridge as opposed to dropping down and picking Ivan up. The impulse is a bit far to the north and not diving much to the south to have much more of an impact than that on Ivan, in my opinion. In fact, based upon the upper-air data and water-vapor imagery, the trough is about done digging and should begin to move zonally or lift ever-so-slightly with time. Just my view, though.

--------------------
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scottsvb1
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25446 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM

Clark you still there? What do you think of the pulse diving se from the southern plains will have a affect on Ivan (if any)....Jason what do you think?

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scottsvb1
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25447 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM

ok.

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Clark
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Re: is the canadian model reliable? [Re: waatcher]
      #25448 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM

The Canadian model is not historically one of the better performing "global" dynamical models when it comes to tropical cyclones, but it's better than many of the other models out there.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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StormHound
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: LI Phil]
      #25449 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:50 PM

Quote:

scott...lol...I was wondering what you refering to. That's a great link, especially for those of us like me who are quite challenged by numerical and text models...graphical ones work much better!

BTW, why is Cantore broadcasting from Punta Gorda? Do they really need a reminder or is it for the effect of showing all the damage from Charley? Either way, I think it's in bad taste.



Actually, I think he's doing them a favor. Unless his track record has changed recently, isn't always at the spot that doesn't get the hurricane? I'm thinking TWC wanted to spare Punta Gorda a second landfall.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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SoonerShawn
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Clark [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25450 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:52 PM

First of all, great posts from you here. We have such good people at this site.

Second, just throwing this out, what if this second trough doesn't do a whole lot to break down the ridge,ala...the first trough? What would be next? I'm only asking because it looks like the first trough didn't have near the impact it was forcasted to do. Then again, there may have been some surprises in there too that help to contribute to that. I don't know.

ShawnS


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scottsvb1
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: StormHound]
      #25451 - Sat Sep 11 2004 02:54 PM

ok well looking at the sat coord of Ivan and looking at the latest model runs, already the GFDL is too far sw with this having it near 18N and 80W, its already 18.1 and projected to be near 18.5 or .6 near 80W I wont talk about the tropical model suites, they run pretty much off of the GFS...Right now if I picked models it would be the NOGAPS,,,anyone recieve the Ukmet 12Z yet?

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Keith234
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25452 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:03 PM

I think it might have some effect, as Clark said before the trough is starting to stop "digging" and will soon "lift", so in my opinion there will be little effect on Ivan from the trough. Also, I feel that ridges have more of an effect on hurricanes than troughs, just a thought.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Jason234 (Sat Sep 11 2004 03:05 PM)


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Cane Watcher
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #25453 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:04 PM

Not trying to get off topic, but check out some of the stories posted on storm carib from Jamaica. It didn't sound like it was a lot of fun. Here is the link: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

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willy
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25454 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:06 PM

I think if you look at the NOGAPS model it may very well be the track that Ivan will take . Not doing any wishcasting but I think the track may even be a little bit west of the NOGAPS track .Don't ask me why but I just have this feeling it will be in the middle of the Gulf on Monday.Nature is not something we can predict by ridges and troughs,mother nature does pretty much what it wants.

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SoonerShawn
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Willy [Re: willy]
      #25455 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:12 PM

Let's say you are correct that Ivan ends up in the central gulf; is it headed nw,north,ne?

ShawnS


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willy
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Re: Willy [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25456 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:21 PM

I wish i could say which direction it may head but like I said nature does pretty much what it wants to. I have been looking at the water vapor loops and I think it may very well pass just south of the mississipi river outlet and then proceed to the northeast.

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AgentB
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Clark]
      #25457 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:32 PM

Finally able to take a look at some models as the computer at my house is still without power. Ivan sure did track a lot further west than north from 11pm last night to 2pm this afternoon. To the tune of .5 degrees north and 2.1 degrees west. Looking at the WV loops it seems that the ridge hasn't moved much further west, but it's appeared to extended itself further south, to over the western end of Cuba. This should keep Ivan south until he can feel his way into the trough. My earlier call of Ivan tracking north along about 83.4 west might prove to be a bit too far to the east. Now I see the storm tracking a bit further west of the Isla de la Juventud and over the western tip of Cuba. Still lots up in the air though that can impact the track.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Rasvar
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Opinions on current motion [Re: willy]
      #25458 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:35 PM

Does it look like Ivan has resumed a more NWerly course now that it is beyond the island. Looking at a 24 hour sat loop, it appears to me that Ivan bounced around the shoreline and is resuming a course that he had prior to the approach. It looks like he could reach 19N 82W. Probably closer to 18.7N. However, these positions would appear to the right of current guidence. Am I just seeing things. Seemed more apparent on the visible loop, which may be playing with light angles.

Nevermind. While site was down I noticed it was more of a stairstep. Not a significant motion.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 06:45 PM)


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DroopGB31
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: AgentB]
      #25459 - Sat Sep 11 2004 03:38 PM

Just heard that recon found Ivan to be a Cat5 again. Pressure down to 914mb and winds 165mph at surface.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: DroopGB31]
      #25460 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:45 PM

Oops I actually decided to go do things besides the site today and it went down around 3:30, it's back though now. Apologies.

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Rasvar
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: MikeC]
      #25461 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM

Quote:

Oops I actually decided to go do things besides the site today and it went down around 3:30, it's back though now. Apologies.




Murphy always rules


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