rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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The slow down will be the main component of this, I think. I'm going out on a limb here and saying the eye will pass West of Grand Cayman.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
It just looks like the next 12 hours are very good for Westward motion to me.
Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:23 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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As of now most models have shifted to the west (for now).
scottsvb1..... what do you think of the and it's record?
A lot going on this Sept 11... but don't forget what took place 3 years ago on Sept 11, 2001.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:27 AM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I dont think any of the experts said that there will be a landfall in S florida. Im not expert and I didnt. Right now to me still Tampa north is best chance but still the Keys could get some hurricane force winds if it jogs more east and still up to the panhandle region....right now its a near term event of whats going on around the storm. I posted that I wont give a landfall till today, well if it does go up to the panhandle that will be still 4 days out, so I might have a extra day to forcast landfall on my 3 day forcast.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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storm.....really to tell ya the truth, I dont like any of the models cause they are not consistant on a regular basis. The best way to interpet the models is see who has the best point A to point B then C and so on. Then again it can start to move off in the wrong direction. Over the U.S. I like the but it has performed bad with and . might end up with the path of 1 of the models in the end, but that would probably be a overall zig zag over the last 5-7 days as the models do change.
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mbfly
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I was glad to see this morning that Jamaica was still there and didn't get a direct hit.............even though I'm sure they still sustained LOTS of damage. I was NOT happy to see that the projected path keeps changing west. It would be great to spare Florida, but I don't want it here either !!
I wasn't going to do this, but I can't resist. My Mom died 1 year ago on the 16th. I wrote the epitath on her headstone. (the third line is in German, so just ignore it) The bottom line is...................... the bottom line !!! I attached an actual pic just so nobody thinks I'm sharing an "urban legend" Hi Mom !
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InOrlando
Unregistered
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Nobody can let up their guard anywhere In western Florida. I see this thing jogging left, then right all day long. Remember . When a Hurricane is traveling parallel to a coast line (West Coast of Florida) a slight jog of 2 degrees could cause a difference in landfall by hundreds of miles.
I hope this stays on its expected western path, but lets all be carefull. It is too early still.
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belleami
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Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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What's up with the spaghetti model on the BoatUS page? Is it down or have they eliminated it? I like the noodle-method forecasting  - Susie
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hang on!
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RevUp
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Quote:
I dont think any of the experts said that there will be a landfall in S florida.
Just last night, I was reading posts about a number of private forecasters calling for landfall along SW coast. They know who they are.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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RevUp
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the graphic comes from Hurricane Alley which is working through some bandwidth problems right now, so no updates UFN.
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Ronn
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At this point, I do not believe we will be able to produce a confident forecast until 48 hours from now. The storm has made some significant wobbles, the most noticeable being the westward movement overnight. Now, it appears that has resumed a WNW motion. With such swinging, erratic movement the models cannot be relied upon at this time.
By looking at the water vapor imagery and upper level charts, I believe we can say with some confidence that is an eastern Gulf (Mobile east) storm. There is no way that will penetrate the trough in the western GOM, since it being re-inforced by new shortwaves. Model runs and official forecasts will change constantly, and will show a variety of scenarios for the east GOM. I don't give either of them much attention until 48 hours from now, when we will have a much better handle on the future track.
I think a major player in this forecast is an upper low that is retrograding westward toward the Bahamas now. Scott mentioned in his discussion how this has caused the ridge to nose down farther SW. I am having difficulty determining exactly how this will affect the steering pattern for , but it will be a major shaper of the ridge north of . The upper low will eventually weaken and we will have to see how the ridge responds to the low's influence over the next 48 hours.
God Bless,
Ronn
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Ivan looks to be undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle.
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Terra
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Quote:
What's up with the spaghetti model on the BoatUS page? Is it down or have they eliminated it? I like the noodle-method forecasting - Susie
My guess is the filename is not as the code wants it to be:)
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Wxwatcher2
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I'm thinking along the same lines Ron
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I agree with you about this being an eastern gulf storm. There is just so far west that can go before he is forced to take that more northerly track because of the trough.
ShawnS
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SC Bill
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Loc: South Carolina
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This might be because I am senile, but I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. , , . Is this because we are trying to forecast further in advance (I think the "official 5-day track" is a relatively new thing?), or is it because each of these storms has had its own set of more complicated than usual weather parameters in which to move?
OR, is it like when you forget the pain of a traumatic event, I just don't remember the roller coaster rides of previous years? :?:
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rickonboat
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Question, of course...is exactly where. Dr. Steve Lyons thought the interaction with Jamaica caused the storm to skirt along the south in a west motion...and once leaving the influence of land..it would resume it's wnw track. It will be interesting to see if that is true. One thing for sure, it will not be a problem for the keys...at least...for now, it is looking that way.
Unpredictable...but it did go south of Jamaica, as I thought...
probably go through the Yucatan...and as slow as it is going..way to early, as the models and forecasters are saying...to tell who is in the bullseye.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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The SFC ridge to the north of is hanging in there pretty strong, along with the upper level trough. I can't help but consider the possibility that will move farther west between Grand Cayman and Cozumel. Surface pressures haven't started dropping yet at Grand Cayman with the recent passage of an outer band.
... surface pressures are falling however over western Cuba.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
Edited by RevUp (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:36 AM)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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safe to say south fl out of the woods?
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15/10/5
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
safe to say south fl out of the woods?
Why do people even say this ? You are not out of the woods untill the storm is inland away from your area .
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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not yet.depends on future conditions. read all the posts here throughly.
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