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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 348 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1402 (Michael) Major: 1402 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: Keith234]
      #25513 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM

Its not my forecast. I got it off a private site. He seems to be very logical and knowledgable I wanted to get all the expert opinions here. Thanks!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25514 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM

Mary,

I think you are 100% correct. Ivan isn't playing by any known weather "rules". Trofs & Ridges be damned with him. He's going where he wants, when he wants. Is this one for the books...unfortunately...you betcha.

Maybe our friend from mobile will get his wish afterall...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25515 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:19 PM

That far out nobody knows. It could be anything. They *think* it will be lower intensity because there *might* be shear that will weaken it. They don't even know where it is going yet, much less how strong it will be when it gets there. Intensity forecasting is even more difficult than location.

Bill


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25516 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 PM

I'm getting worried here in P'cola. Especially looking at this graphic..

Going to be a wild and nerve racking few days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/AL0904P.GIF


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: SirCane]
      #25517 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM

URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A Ivan OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.

Down to 910 MB --- Ivan's one crazy powerful storm


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Back up again [Re: SirCane]
      #25518 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM

Mike,

Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25519 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:41 PM

Early to tell, but back on WNW for now. Maybe the W track was a wobble?

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25520 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM

Don't know, but I've been looking at 6 1/2 hrs worth of satellite, and it seems to me that it's almost due west. Check this link out:

Satellite Loop


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25521 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM

From the lastest recon vortex message, the pressure is down to 910. Also doing some quick math with the locations from the last three vortex messages, in the last 3.5 hours or so, Ivan has moved .06 N and .25 W.

Bill


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Back up again [Re: LI Phil]
      #25522 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:44 PM

Quote:

Mike,

Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!




I thank you also!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: SirCane]
      #25523 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM

I haven't plotted out Ivan vs Camille, but the scenario is starting to look familiar.
Ivan is CAT 5, now where Camille was Mid-Gulf before recon found Cat5 winds and pressure. Now comes the sticky part. In the 35 years of Hurricane Forecasting after Camille, there is still a wide margin of error. Hurricane Camille was forecast to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle. The official "Hurricane Warning" for the MS Gulf Coast Did Not go up until Camille was 18 hours from landfall. I will have to look and find when the Hurricane Watch went into effect.
Don't let your guard down. Start now. Pack a few things, fill up the cars, make reservations-you can cancel them.
If Ivan decides to do a last minute turn, you may not have time to do this.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25524 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM

Yes, I agree. It's been W for hours. Last frame or two shows the WNW jump.

It's going to have to stay on that track for several hours before I believe it, though.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25525 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:53 PM

Just what kind of numbers could we see tonight? Is this perhaps Ivan's best chance to make the record books, or are chances better after making it into the GOM?

I noticed this after trying to convert knots to MPH and found myself at the END of the scale.. lol


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Movement [Re: rule]
      #25526 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM

I think it is still just a tad north of due west overall. You have to take in account the little wobble to the SW earlier so now with the WNW it is more less back on track.

ShawnS


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25527 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM

I would think it would have a better chance of becoming stronger during the day then during the night. Just a thought.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Ridge Manor Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: danielw]
      #25528 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 PM

I have just recently started watching hurricanes very intently. (I live in Tampa Bay Area). Do the mets really have any experience on storms this big? This one looks highly unpredictable. What do the falling mb's mean?

--------------------
Robynsmom


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: record breaker [Re: Keith234]
      #25529 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM

actually, many times tropical systems get convective bursts at night as opposed to regular convection.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25530 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM

The conversion factor for knots to mph is 1.15. For example, 145 kt x 1.15 = 166.75 mph

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: robynsmom]
      #25531 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM

Mother of Robyn:

>>> What do the falling mb's mean?

Unfortunately, they mean the storm is getting stronger still.

While we're on this topic a quick poll:
Will Ivan's Pressure fall below 900mb?
You may choose only one
Yes
No


Votes accepted from (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25532 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM

What would cause a convective burst at night?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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