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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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breeezy
Unregistered




Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25597 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

I love this forum......

hey tenavilla... where is "right back where they started from"?


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




NHC [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25598 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:44 PM

Not to bash them but I guess the NHC feels that if they keep saying that the ridge will weaken and Ivan **SHOULD** take a more northerly turn it will eventually happen. The word "should" is becoming one of my least favorite words at this point. I think they need to go back to having just the 72hr forecast and forget about the 5 day stuff. It just puts more people in a frenzy and most of the time is incorrect from what I've seen. They are pretty good at the 72hr track so keep they should leave it at that. Again, just my opinion.

ShawnS

I see what you are saying but be patient. Trust me, the NHC knows what is at stake here and has a real hard call to make including all the evacs in S. FL that have taken place as well as the rest of the Gulf Coast getting ready for what may be

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:57 PM)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25600 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 PM

Quote:

I am no genius but did that report just say that they are calling this one west and east? I got the part about an eventual turn to the northwest, but then they said they were going to the east of the package? Duh. could some one explain what that said?




They said the track was adjusted to the left, but was on the east side of the current models.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25601 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM

The NHC track has been east/right of the "model consensus" now for the last day or so, according to the NHC. They have their reasons for doing this, some are explained in the discussion. My take on it is that they are not so sure that after looking at what is and has happened with this storm, that the models have it exactly right. Also they always work with averages (which is a very good thing) and don't make major changes to the official track because a couple of models swing one way or the other. But, bottom line and I quote from the 11PM discussion:

BEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE Ivan WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

It is too early to tell where Ivan will end up, or even how strong Ivan will be when it gets where it is going.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25602 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM

I don't think they have all that much confidence in their forecast, and certainly don't want the west coast of Florida to let their guard down... its conceivable that the track could continue to slip off to the west over time... who knows.... I did nail the 285 degree heading in an earlier post, and also the NHC discusses the shear issue that I mentioned as a factor for weakening to a "major" hurricane in the GOM... and not a Cat 5 as discussed in the 11 pm... you can't measure direction based on an hour of wobbles... you need to average it out over time of at least 3-6 hours per se... I don't know where this thing will end up but people along the Northern and NE GOM need to be seriously thinking about their hurricane plans, if this scenario plays out...

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




My last post [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25603 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM

Sorry, take out "keep" in the last sentence.

ShawnS


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: NHC [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25604 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM

Not even sure the 72's have been al that great this year. I think the five day serves a a purpose. Three days does not always give enough to initiate saftey measures. However, timing and intensity forecast has been weak this year, IMHO. I think that is more nature teaching us that we don't know as much as we think we do.

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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25605 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:51 PM

LI Phil,

"Katy" is a Shetland Sheepdog, a "Sheltie".

About 25 pounds. I call her "Portly", but she gets mad.

I wish I had a herd of Sheep to keep her busy....

I can guarantee she could herd Ivan!

Back to our regularly scheduled program...


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: breeezy]
      #25606 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:52 PM

I remember the Charley forecast starting around Ft. Meyers, moving up to Tampa, then ending up right back near Ft. Meyers. Frances forecast started around Palm Beach, moved all over the place, then ended up right back in that general area. Of course, things are so crazy these days I might be off by a little bit, but that's what I remember.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25607 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:54 PM

At least they do not lose the hurricanes like they did in the 50's. I was talking to my mother today and she said when I was a little girl in the early 50's, that tracking was so poor they actually "lost" the hurricane for a while. So we may not be able to put a mark on the map and say this is where the eye is going to land, but at least we now can see where the cane is going at all times and we don't lose them anymore.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




BillD [Re: Frank P]
      #25608 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 PM

You are correct and that is my point. If they have to play CYA in every advisory by saying that the track is very uncertain after 3 days than why bother with taking it out to 5 days anyway. This certainly is not the first storm that they have had to put that phrase in there. Almost all of them as far as I can remember. I understand the reasoning behind them starting this up about 2-3 yrs ago but IMO it is only making things worse.

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: NHC [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25609 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:56 PM

I agree about the 5 Day forecast. It's just too far out. They need to stick with the 3 day for now.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Rasvar [Re: Rasvar]
      #25610 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:58 PM

What good did the 5 day do with Charley or Frances for that matter. By the time the 5 day does verify it is pretty obvious where it will be because it's almost on land by then ( just a figure of speach on that one)

ShawnS


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: BillD [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25611 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM

I think the 5 day forcast track is pretty useless and I'd like to see them just go out three days.
Too much room for error and not accurate at all.

ANyone else tired of Ivan.......raise you hand !!!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: NHC [Re: rule]
      #25612 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM

Only problem is that a three day forecast would make it impossible to get some areas evacuated in time. Granted, it does lead to extra evacuations. It is a no win situation.

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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25614 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 PM

<raises hand.... and a foot!>

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25615 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 PM

I think you can pretty much evacuate in 3 days with proper planning.

The Keys are probably the worst part of the state to evacuate. If the west track prooves true, the keys were evacuated and will only receive a small breeze........sigh...


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25616 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:03 PM

Im raisin mine!!!!

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: BillD [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25617 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:05 PM

Shawn, I agree that the 5 day forecast idea has not worked out very well. But the problem is not the NHC, it is the media. Those of us here on this forum know how uncertain even a 3 day forecast is, but the media hypes the 5 day like it is a certain thing.

Plus with the explosion of the Internet, there are lots a lots of people that don't understand how inexact the forecasts are, looking up the 5 day forecast on the NHC or other websites and freaking out.

Bill


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: NHC [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25618 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM

You can evacuate some areas in three days. However, those extra two days allow time to do preps. People want time to prepare. Not to mention, you always have too many people evacuating. The fact that the path never pointed at Miami for Frances was a blessing. It if had been further south, I-95 and the Turnpike would have been much bigger parking lot then it aready was.

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