52255225
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Its not my forecast. I got it off a private site. He seems to be very logical and knowledgable I wanted to get all the expert opinions here. Thanks!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mary,
I think you are 100% correct. isn't playing by any known weather "rules". Trofs & Ridges be damned with him. He's going where he wants, when he wants. Is this one for the books...unfortunately...you betcha.
Maybe our friend from mobile will get his wish afterall...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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That far out nobody knows. It could be anything. They *think* it will be lower intensity because there *might* be shear that will weaken it. They don't even know where it is going yet, much less how strong it will be when it gets there. Intensity forecasting is even more difficult than location.
Bill
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I'm getting worried here in P'cola. Especially looking at this graphic..
Going to be a wild and nerve racking few days.  
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/AL0904P.GIF
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.
Down to 910 MB --- 's one crazy powerful storm
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike,
Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Early to tell, but back on WNW for now. Maybe the W track was a wobble?
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Don't know, but I've been looking at 6 1/2 hrs worth of satellite, and it seems to me that it's almost due west. Check this link out:
Satellite Loop
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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From the lastest recon vortex message, the pressure is down to 910. Also doing some quick math with the locations from the last three vortex messages, in the last 3.5 hours or so, has moved .06 N and .25 W.
Bill
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Quote:
Mike,
Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!
I thank you also!
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I haven't plotted out vs Camille, but the scenario is starting to look familiar.
Ivan is CAT 5, now where Camille was Mid-Gulf before recon found Cat5 winds and pressure. Now comes the sticky part. In the 35 years of Hurricane Forecasting after Camille, there is still a wide margin of error. Hurricane Camille was forecast to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle. The official "Hurricane Warning" for the MS Gulf Coast Did Not go up until Camille was 18 hours from landfall. I will have to look and find when the Hurricane Watch went into effect.
Don't let your guard down. Start now. Pack a few things, fill up the cars, make reservations-you can cancel them.
If decides to do a last minute turn, you may not have time to do this.
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Yes, I agree. It's been W for hours. Last frame or two shows the WNW jump.
It's going to have to stay on that track for several hours before I believe it, though.
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Just what kind of numbers could we see tonight? Is this perhaps 's best chance to make the record books, or are chances better after making it into the GOM?
I noticed this after trying to convert knots to MPH and found myself at the END of the scale.. lol
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I think it is still just a tad north of due west overall. You have to take in account the little wobble to the SW earlier so now with the WNW it is more less back on track.
ShawnS
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I would think it would have a better chance of becoming stronger during the day then during the night. Just a thought.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Ridge Manor Florida
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I have just recently started watching hurricanes very intently. (I live in Tampa Bay Area). Do the mets really have any experience on storms this big? This one looks highly unpredictable. What do the falling mb's mean?
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Robynsmom
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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actually, many times tropical systems get convective bursts at night as opposed to regular convection.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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The conversion factor for knots to mph is 1.15. For example, 145 kt x 1.15 = 166.75 mph
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mother of Robyn:
>>> What do the falling mb's mean?
Unfortunately, they mean the storm is getting stronger still.
While we're on this topic a quick poll:
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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What would cause a convective burst at night?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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