Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | >> (show all)
javlin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #25575 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:16 PM

I really have not looked at it real close seen glimps of it been seeing alot of the basic model all hooking E.There is a guy over at S2K drops off about 11:00 pm CDT the 1/4 pages of the CMC his name is Montrealboy.Alot of people like to bash because of the old format but I think it deals with synoptic patterns better esp. talking troff's from the N.You might right be Tenavilla just seem to me I heard something abiut the steering happened lower probably wrong.I think one could just about stick a fork in NHC predictions on this one.Ivan as Phil said will go as he pleases right now.Got a feeling he makes the YUC gap.In the intermission break that we had went and looked at WV loop again.The ULL seems to of lately started the S track still pushing that ridge on Ivan.Once these two come to the same lat. that eastward swing part of the equation is over.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SoonerShawn
Unregistered




SHEAR! [Re: Frank P]
      #25576 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM

I wouldn't put too much faith on the forecast of more shear in the GOM right at the moment. It seems that the predictions that have been made so far about the weather conditions ahead of Ivan have not been all that great.Let's wait for the shear to actually show up first.

ShawnS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25577 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM

not to freak you out, but after 9 innings of the Phils/Mets game, both teams had 9 runs on 11 hits.......storm, reachs 910 mbs........Ok, enough, now I'm freaking out my Vulcan mind.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Renee
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25578 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:21 PM

I understand Phil. Watching some of the media coverage of the memorial of the day left me feeling very sad and appalled all over again.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Renee
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: SHEAR! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25579 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

My husband is biting at the bit to go to Lowes and load up on plywood and supplies. He wants to construct a mini emergency shelter within our garage. I'm telling him we don't need to worry...IF the storm comes to Tally, the shear will be weaken it like Kate was in 1985....that wasn't too bad.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Grand Cayman Weather and Recon [Re: MrSpock]
      #25580 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

01Z observation from Grand Cayman.
Wind 060deg (ENE) at 30kts gusting to 44kts (34.5mph gusting to 50.7mph). Pressure 1003mb.

Recon scheduled to be airborne at 0200Z. 23 minutes ago.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #25582 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

I am not seeing any problem with the motion or track right now. It sure looks like it will be dead on for the 6Z position forecast. Stairstepping nicely on track. I do not see missing Cuba at all.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Renee]
      #25583 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:29 PM

Renee et. al.

Thanks for the kind words. I'm actually glad my post was the last one on the last "page". Didn't mean to bring everyone down...the past is just that..the past.

Onto Ivan the Horrific..

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25584 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:30 PM

I don't know about missing Cuba, it may make that NW turn before then. However, I don't see it making the next forecast point. When I hold my straightedge up to the screen and follow the eye, it's barely north of west, that doesn't put it on the right track for the immediate future. When it gets to the end of that ridge, we'll have to see what happens. I do agree with a lot of people though, all bets are off on this one. You kind of give up after awhile. I am very interested to see the 11pm update. Wonder which way they'll shift, since they've been all over the place.

An interesting note, though. With both Frances and Charley they were all over the place and eventually ended up right back where they started.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25585 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 PM

11:00 discussion and forecast is out. Do not see anything earth shattering. Slight shift of track west.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25586 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:32 PM

Off topic, but Jeez, Phil. I'm sorry.

My dog just forced me to play with her for 5 minutes... Playing "Buggy" under the covers of my bed.

Somehow I make a connection between a "pet" (member of the family) and the unquestioning love that they show and your loss at the other end. (If that makes sense.)

Remember what is important to you Phil, but remember to move on as well. Life is Dynamic, just as Ivan is.

Oh great. My dog.. "Katy", want to play some more. Can't deny that!

Back to Ivan..

Please continue your life, Phil. Time will heal somehwhat...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25588 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM

It is a stairstep path. Goes about thirty min West and then about 10-15 min NW. Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: tenavilla]
      #25589 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM

...THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT FIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7. AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Rasvar [Re: Rasvar]
      #25590 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:36 PM

I hate to differ with you but the path it is on right now it won't even come close to the eye crossing Cuba. In fact the path it is on right now, it would be hard pressed to miss going over the yucatan. I'm guessing that you are saying that it will change its overall movement by then.

ShawnS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Westward?? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25591 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 PM

Well NHC says different, but I'm going with 271degrees. Due west on the loop. 1 pixel north, in the last frame, looked more like the eye expanding a little.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: danielw]
      #25592 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM

I am no genius but did that report just say that they are calling this one west and east? I got the part about an eventual turn to the northwest, but then they said they were going to the east of the package? Duh. could some one explain what that said?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25593 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM

Thanks Rule and all...lets keep focused on Ivan...btw...my 14 lb Jack Russell knows I'm upset...animals got more damn smarts that we (humans) do that's for damn sure...

This monster commands our attention...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Rasvar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25594 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM

Never said that the current course was going to stay. I just think that the 5:00 PM forecast for 6Z is going to be very close to verifying. A lot closer then the 12 hour positions had been. If the 12Z position for the 11:00PM is just as close as I think the 6Z will be, I feel that NHC has a very good grip on the storm for the next 48 hours and a Cuban landfall will occur. I personally do not see it not turning and missing Cuba at this point.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25595 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

Quote:

Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.




The one I'm looking at is in 15 min intervals, I guess I'm just not seeing what you're seeing. NHC puts it at 285, which is about 7.5 degrees short of WNW. Discussion says it should be finding that weakness in the ridge and turning NW, then N in the next day or so. Of course, they didn't expected it to wobble this far west either...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25596 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

This thing is going West all night. Yucatan may need to start buying plywood.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 474 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 29289

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center