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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Recon [Re: MrSpock]
      #25676 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:59 PM

Where do you get the new models from? Those other websites don't update them often enough.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Re: New models [Re: danielw]
      #25677 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:59 PM

I'm tellin' ya'll I have a no fail prediction system. (within 50 miles)

--------------------
Kelly


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Re: Recon [Re: tenavilla]
      #25678 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:00 AM

umich.....here's the link:
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html
I use the NCEP link most often.

Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM)


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KJJBCr
Unregistered




Re: New models [Re: danielw]
      #25679 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM

I just realized that Charlie was in exactly the same place as Ivan is now exactly one month ago. Look at one of the interactive sites where you can see the path of prior storms. Sept. 11, I van. August 11, Charlie. Kinda freaky.

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LI Phil
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Re: WOBBLE! [Re: Frank P]
      #25680 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM

>>>> but it's gaining latitude slowly, and moving that longitudal line more to the west as well, which means its going to the GOM.... and most likely Coooba...... then..... ??

well...if I lived on a boat...and that boat was in the GOM (sort of)...perhaps a bay bordering the GOM...then...

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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recmod
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25681 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM

starting to see a NW wobble right now....has lasted the past 3 frames on IR. If this keeps up...........

Lou


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BillD
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Re: Recon [Re: tenavilla]
      #25682 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM

For the GFS and ETA NCEP

Bill


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: Recon [Re: tenavilla]
      #25683 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 AM

Quote:

Where do you get the new models from? Those other websites don't update them often enough.


'

What sites are you looking at ?

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Recon [Re: HCW]
      #25684 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:04 AM

The links on this site to the spaghetti models. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. The wunderground still had runs from yesterday until a few minutes ago.

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rule
Weather Guru


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current strength? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25685 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:06 AM

Anyone got an idea on Ivan's current strength?

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BillD
User


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Re: Recon [Re: tenavilla]
      #25686 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:09 AM

Hurricane Alley has converted over to "for pay" for the charts and stuff, like the spaghetti models. Weather Underground is still free as far as I know, but they don't show as many models and sometimes are a little behind on updating the graphic.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours [Re: BillD]
      #25687 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:13 AM

Like it or not the Canadian has probably been as accurate as any other model to date with Ivan, it has always been the western outlier, but Ivan has been following the left side of the forecast track for days... maybe the Canadian is on to something..... last Tuesday it basically said New Orleans.... then during the week it shifted east, but not as much as the others, and the last several runs takes it to back SE LA and MS.... I don't buy that scenario yet, as I still think it will be the western panhandle... but its something that you still have to consider.... 96 hours out here's the poop.... literally..

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours [Re: Frank P]
      #25688 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:14 AM

The NOGAPS hasn't done that bad either .

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LI Phil
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Re: Recon [Re: BillD]
      #25689 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:15 AM

Yeah...they did that during Frances...Mike is promising us he won't have to convert to PPV, and all your contributions are helping ensure we stay ad-free, non-pay per view.

I don't wanna pimp for Mike, but anything you can paypal him would be great. he's done amazing work keeping this site up over the past few...even a couple of bucks will cover the new server he's gonna have in place next week...

Back to the wx, I say we got our selves one bad mother next week...let's hope someone can get a handle on his forward motion and tame his CAT V side.

Peace & god bless Grand Cayman Island...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1299
Boat on a bay.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #25691 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:20 AM

yeah LIPhil, I don't think I'd like to be on any kinda boat on any kinda bay with this monster coming at me.... . unless it was on the USS Alabama, which is sitting in a certain bay stuck deep in the mud and not going anywhere.... hehe

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours [Re: HCW]
      #25692 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:20 AM

Nogaps has been doing good on track. Just find it curious that it is definately too high on the pressures. Then again, I can not recall seeing any model that has been handling that really well.

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Londovir
Weather Guru


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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
New Recon Decoder Version [Re: rule]
      #25693 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:21 AM Attachment (317 downloads)

For anyone who is interested, attached to this post is a new version of my Recon Decoder tool. There are some new features:

- Vortex Recons Decoding now better differentiates between the maximum flight level winds detected near the center and the maximum flight level winds overall (usually mentioned in remarks). There was some confusion the other (last?) night over the way my decoder was reporting the mfl winds.
- Decoder now offers decoding of Vortex Supplementary reports. These are the reports the planes make as they fly into and out of the storm. Useful for reporting the winds measured on both passes.
- Supplementary reports cleaned up into a nice table format. (Still working on cleaning up the Vortex report)

How to use:

- Save the attachment to your computer as "decoder.html" (any name is fine, but change the .txt to .html when you save)
- Load the file with your web browser's File->Open ability.
- Click the link for the desired report. A new browser window will open.
- Highlight and "Copy" the entire report from the new window. Close the window if you wish.
- "Paste" the report into the box on the decoder page.
- Click the "Decode" button.

I'm heading on to adding Tropical RECCO report handling next.

Cheers!

--------------------
Londovir


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1299
Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours [Re: HCW]
      #25694 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:25 AM

see the latest run of the NOGAPS.... it gave birth during the run, either that of it took a big dum$........ i think it did this for Frances too.....hehe... but I agree its done well....

seems like Ivan is looking like he's moving more around 295-300 degrees during the past hour, a little more north than previous, and presently heading right at the Caymans...

ouch....


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: New Recon Decoder Version [Re: Londovir]
      #25695 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:27 AM

FYI Recon decoder posted at http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.html
for you to use.


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Tazmanian93
Unregistered




Re: New models [Re: kelcot]
      #25696 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:27 AM

Hello all, alll I can say is WOW, many uneasy folks in many places right now past,present and future. Anyone see anything pulses, troughs West to East, North to South, anything that would lead you to believe this would somehow make it back to the Tampa area as a projected LF?

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