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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: New models [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25698 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:36 AM

Until Ivan is north of Tampa's lattitude, I can still see a chance for landfall. However, it is looking somewhat unlikely at this time.

Heck, I still remember crazy Elena. After that storm, I vowed to never write anything off.


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Tazmanian93
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Re: New models [Re: Rasvar]
      #25699 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:40 AM

We are taking Charley as a lesson for anything that can will, but there must have been something that drove Charley away, anything seen for Ivan at this time?

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: New models [Re: Rasvar]
      #25700 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:41 AM

well looking at the oz models they are pretty much the same,,,and if anything a couple a TAD more E but not enough to really even show,.,couple like the GFS are about 20 miles farther east then the 18Z run. I havent seen the Ukmet yet. NOGAPS is still the same. Anyways I do think in the next few runs they will slide ever so slightly back east due to the slow movement and faster short wave pulses droping down first 1 will crash the ridge tomorrow night. 2nd one still up in the NW US but diving fast SE and should make it to Texas tomorrow night and Gulf Coast by Monday night into Tuesday,.,,,If Ivan slows anymore,,then the main trough will push him NE,,thing is where will Ivan be by Tuesday afternoon.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: New Recon Decoder Version [Re: Londovir]
      #25701 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:42 AM

Londovir, this is so awesome... a lot of the people I work with at the Stennis Space Center in MS have a copy of your first edition, and they love it... they'll be very glad when they see the new upgraded version...


thanks


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kempshark
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Re: Tampa Area [Re: Rasvar]
      #25703 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 AM

I'm praying Ivan speeds up a little......I'm thinking any delay just increases the chance he is turned more to the NE or E and endangers the WestCentral Gulf Coast of Florida.....I'm still deciding whether to leave town or not

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Tampa Area [Re: kempshark]
      #25704 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:55 AM

Likewise, although many people have been in the " Sky is Falling" mode for 3 days now. My ex-wife wanted to drive the kids to Alabama and we decided against that Friday night. Could end up being the best decision ever. I agree with yor thoughts on the slow down. Keeps the window open.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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recon [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #25705 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:58 AM

shouldn't the latest recon be out soon?

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Colleen A.
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Re: New models [Re: Rasvar]
      #25706 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:00 AM

Hey all...busy busy day.
I noticed that northerly component about 2 hours ago and I said to myself, "Self, it's probably just a wobble, so don't think too much of it until it stays that way for a while."

3 mets just mentioned the same thing. I'll have to eat a little bit of crow here (like a wing or beak) because I did a little bashing on him last week...but Dennis Phillips from ABC 28 just said, "Folks, this COULD just be a wobble, but if you look at these last two frames, it looks like it's beginning to have a more northerly movement to it..if this keeps up, and I hope it doesn't, the track I'm showing you on the screen might not be in the same place tomorrow night. Remember Charley?"

So.....I think (and this is only my opinion) that if it passes east of the Caymans, and further to the east in Cuba, the scenario might be a little different tomorrow. On the other hand, I might be eating a whole truckload of crow.

Note: I meant if it goes in between the Cayman Islands, not EAST.....DOH!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Sep 12 2004 01:02 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: New models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25707 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:01 AM

Ok elminated a step on the decoder:

Link for decoder for vortex (Already supplied for you)
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

And the same with supplementary:

http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php?t=s


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: recon [Re: BabyCat]
      #25708 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:03 AM

If it's on time. It should be up about 6-8 minutes after the hour.

Decoder: Mike and Londovir. That's awesome. Thanks.

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 12 2004 01:07 AM)


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Londovir
Weather Guru


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: New Recon Decoder Version [Re: Frank P]
      #25710 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:06 AM

Thanks for the compliment(s)! I'm working away on this thing, and should have the next run of it with RECCO decode on the way before I finally head to bed tonight. (Shows what Mountain Dew in the veins can do for programming skills...)

I don't know if anyone has the know-how here, but I do have one question about recon decoding I haven't cracked yet. On both RECCO and Supplementary reports, there is a report of the millibar level the plane is flying at. I can understand most of them, but one is reported as follows:

"8..D-value in geopotential decameters (if negative, 500 is added to HHH)"

This one I don't get. Does anybody know what mb level this line would refer to? I'm more curious to know if a line is encoded as /8100, what meter height would it be? If it were /3100, I know it would be 3000m+100=3100m.

Oh well, still some things to learn. If these hurricanes keep rolling, this thing is going to turn into a big program....keep getting work and school canceled. (3rd time this year, not consecutively).

--------------------
Londovir


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: New models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25711 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:07 AM

It looks like you may be right on the North move a bit. He has been hugging 80 Lo. pretty close. It looks like it could be a bit on the inside E of the Caymans

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Forecasts and models [Re: MrSpock]
      #25712 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:08 AM

Please excuse the rantings of a weather ignoramus, but it seems some aspects of the forecasts and models are being neglected.

1. I fail to see the objection to 5 day forecasts. Most negative comments are not about the forecast but the use of the forecast. Perhaps the problem is not the forecast (a set of 4-dimensional locations) but their presentation.

The NHC adds to the set of points line segments (most probable path?) and a "cone" (likely area to be within the eye?). Perhaps more useful additions to the points would be arcs to indicate distance the system might travel in a given time. In contrast to the current "cone" these arcs need not be symmetrical. The current presentation indicates an equal degree of uncertainty in either lateral direction.

Also, if the "cone" is eliminated, the points could become centers for an overlay of the predicted size of the system. The current graphic shows how large an area MIGHT be affected, but not how large an area WILL be affected. The arc through the center of this representation would show the uncertainty of where that area would be.

2. Most of the comments about the discrepancy between the forecast position and the actual position are 4-dimensional. My casual obsevation of the paths of storms shows greater correlation in 3 dimensions. While the pace of the storms has not been well predicted, the variations from the geographic paths have not been so problematic.

Since location in time is so difficult, perhaps another item could be added to the presentaion suggested above. In addition to the arc through the predicted location, perhaps another line segment along the anticipated path to show the 90 percentile for distance travelled. This segment will be much longer for points beyond 24 hours, but would better indicate the degree of uncertainty.

3. Finally, I have seen much discussion, comparison and critique of various models. I have seen little mention of what these models are working with. Each model is an attempt to reproduce a highly complex analog system with a very restricted set of digital data. It is my view the problems are not with the models, but with the absence of data.

Before any model can ever be relied upon, much more environmental data (historical and current) will be needed. I do not know how fine grain the data needs to be, but it certainly will have to not only be more frequent, but be much more closely spaced on the surface, below the surface, as well as in the atmosphere.

Even IF one of the current models was "perfect" we would never know it because we are unable to feed it the data necessary to correctly represent the external reality.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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meto
Weather Guru


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Re: New models [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #25713 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:15 AM

THIS isnt a wobble. it is moving north.....

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: New models [Re: meto]
      #25714 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:18 AM

It sure seems that way looking how it is sidestepping the forecast point here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Re: New models [Re: meto]
      #25715 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:18 AM

The move does seem to have some conviction behind it.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version [Re: Londovir]
      #25716 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:18 AM

Per the following link, page G-3. The / is: " No absolute alt. available or goepotential data not within +/- 30mtrs or 4mb accuracy requirements."
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/02/pdf/r-app-g.pdf


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: New models [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #25717 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:19 AM

meto,,,,not saying your wrong but where do you see its not a wobble? There is a NNW jog over last 2 frames (1 hour). Where do you see more....Also where do you live if you dont mind me asking,,,,,,ty

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Colleen A.
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version [Re: Londovir]
      #25718 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:20 AM

That's so awesome, Londovir! It's great to see so many smart people live in LAKELAND.

One thing that concerns me: this storm is so far out, given the slowdown in the last 24 -36 hours, that I have heard a lot of people say "Oh, we're out of the woods now!" The mets and the NHC can scream at the top of their lungs all day long: "THERE ARE HUGE MARGINS FOR ERROR", but the public (excluding weather geeks like ourselves) take that track and solidify it in their minds and tune out. Once they see that cone OFF the state of Florida, they think the all clear has been given.

Charley caught people off guard, and we know what happened.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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OZ IN FL
Registered User


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Posts: 4
Re: New models [Re: MrSpock]
      #25719 - Sun Sep 12 2004 01:22 AM

Reposted by MikeC

Mike et al...Awesome site.....I listen to the "sky is falling" media and then log on to "listen" to rational people discuss what is happening.

About that boat......House on East FL.......boat on West FL........Truck in Gulfport MS.....Hubby on a big grey boat hanging out in the GOM.......me thinks I'm screwed.

Phil....I was taught this at an early age back home....I think it is fitting for today.

And with the going down of the sun....we will remember them.

Lest we forget.

RJ


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