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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: MrSpock]
      #25654 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 PM

>>> So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....

On Vulcan, the closest planet to the sun, there will be 500 MPH Hypercanes and then some drizzle. 10 days out

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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sullynole
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: rule]
      #25655 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 PM

it is well known that the 5 day usually isn't that great, but I believe it was requested of the NHC. while everyone here seems to be down on the 5 day forecast, on systems not so large as we have seen lately and not as unusual (we are breaking records with this one), the 5 day forecasts are often pretty good. they are very helpful for those like myself because it is helpful to see what the NHC is thinking. Everyone just needs to remember they are just what they say... experimental. They are really not to be used as official tracks just yet and (just as the models) should not be shown to the general public by the media.

I'm not sure if the media does this because I usually don't watch much of the tracking by the news, etc.

--------------------
John

Edited by sullynole (Sat Sep 11 2004 11:43 PM)


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Terra
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: rule]
      #25656 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:38 PM

Quote:

Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.

My head hurts.




Only one point so far..... maybe more? Hopefully?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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DroopGB31
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: LI Phil]
      #25657 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:39 PM

I agree Phil. I never really liked it because of the reason you mentioned. Theres just way to much uncertainty past 72 hours as we have seen all year. As soon as we think we have a landfall area set in stone the models shift and everything else shifts and its a nerve wracking mess. Not to mention everyone follows the little line in the center of the cone and say "oh, were not under the line, we dont need to worry". Perfect example being Charley.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: Rasvar]
      #25658 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:39 PM

I keep hearing the forecast official and not so official excluding the Peninsula of Florida in its track. I have seen too many hurricanes pass through the Yucatan passage and end up near or in Florida. It is really too early to say where the cane will go after getting into the gulf. This is really frightening as people are beginning to go numb here in Florida.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: rule]
      #25659 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:40 PM

I'll agree on the turn. Last few shots (pics) look like he's going north up the 80.0 longitude line. Recentering Grand Cayman?
The overall size, ahead of the storm appears to be smaller than earlier, too.
That will throw the models another curve ball!


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Rasvar
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: tenavilla]
      #25660 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:40 PM

Yeah, they have been off. They were also way off on the six hour positions. The 5:00PM six hour posit for 2:00am looks to be the first one that is reasonably close in sometime. Have to hit the 6 hour first a few times before I start trusting the 12. However, I think now that it is away from Jamicia, it will behave until it gets close to Cuba. I think the near term is pretty straightforward. The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west. But I still think if the last two six hour posit forecast can verify pretty close, Ivan does not miss Cuba.

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kelcot
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25662 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:42 PM

numb, maybe.....staying prepaired, yes.
My husband just returned from Orlando, Vero, Melbourne Lowes. He took pictures of the stores there (not damage from the storm) The shelves were almost completely empty when they walked in. There's also a picture he took of the parking lot with all the cars lined up to get more wood.

--------------------
Kelly


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rule
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: Lisa NC]
      #25663 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:43 PM

Smaller usually equals faster. Ivan goes for it. Better in the wide open ocean than near land. Unless poor Caymans enter into it.

Currently I could see the Eyewall rubbing Grand Cayman. In other words, effectly erasing it.

Damn... Hope all can seek shelter...


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MrSpock
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: danielw]
      #25664 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:44 PM

I have to switch to another sat pic site, as mine is now shifting camera angle, so the storm is harder to track. I would like to see that though.

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FlaRebel
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HEY JASON!!!!!!!!!! [Re: kelcot]
      #25665 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:44 PM

So how is Tallahassee looking bud? I'm thinking of hitting the road after work on Monday. Any advice is appreciated.

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LI Phil
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: Rasvar]
      #25666 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:45 PM

>>>The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west

Not arguing or trying to bust chops, but what makes you say this? Just a hunch (which is fine) or is there some evidence that CAT V's trend west?

Again, a valid question...could have major implications down the road...thanks.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
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WOBBLE! [Re: Rasvar]
      #25667 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:46 PM

It will turn out to be just a wobble. It has been doing this all day. Many of you have even talked about the stairstepping it has been doing. In the next few frames I bet you anything it evens out back to a mainly west motion, again.

ShawnS


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: Rasvar]
      #25669 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:48 PM

Recon is about 671 miles out. Should be about 2 hours from the center.

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rule
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: DroopGB31]
      #25670 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:49 PM

DroopGB31,

Good point...." Perfect example being Charley."

With Charley, it was somewhat, "Oh, it's going into Tampa, ummm...AAAIIIIEEE!!!!!"

You cannot fool around with these things.


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Rasvar
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #25671 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:52 PM

Truthfully, it is something I have noticed on the Cat 4 and Cat 5's. These stronger storms, IMHO, seem to exert a bit of an influence in the local enviroment that seems to retard some of the forces in front of it. Maybe saying west is a bad term. Most of these storms are already moving in a generally western to WNW motion when I have seen this. It is probably more if a fluid dynamic that is associated with the strongest velocities being in the front right quadrant. Most of the time, that quadrant will be heading W or WNW. Hence my feeling of the extra force being exerted to force it more westerly then the models take into account.

This is all on personal observation with backyard physics. No good science in it.

Defective l key on this laptop keeps dropping l's

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 11:54 PM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #25672 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:54 PM

New ETA has storm clipping Yucatan, new GFS has storm hitting western Cuba. A friend of mine and I used to joke back in the '80s about the disclaimer by the NHC at the end of the forecasts. We used to say "errors may exceed a few hundred thousand miles". Things have come a long way since then.

Sorry, edited to say Western Cuba......There is a 27 hour difference between Earth and Vulcan.....thanks for catching that

Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 11 2004 11:57 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: Recon [Re: MrSpock]
      #25673 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:55 PM

Eastern Cuba?

Glad you edited that. If GFS had gone back east that far, I think I would never trust it again.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 11:59 PM)


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Frank P
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Re: WOBBLE! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25674 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:57 PM

funny things there hurricanes.... several days ago it was forecasted by some that Ivan would be hard pressed to get west of 80-81w longitude.... unless something drastic happens in the immediate future he's going well past that benchmark...

still looks to be going around 285-290 overall heading.... but it's gaining latitude slowly, and moving that longitudinal line more to the west as well, which means its going to the GOM.... and most likely Coooba...... then..... ??


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New models [Re: Rasvar]
      #25675 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:58 PM

Split the difference to get the unofficial track.

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