LI Phil
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>>> So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....
On Vulcan, the closest planet to the sun, there will be 500 MPH Hypercanes and then some drizzle. 10 days out
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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sullynole
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it is well known that the 5 day usually isn't that great, but I believe it was requested of the . while everyone here seems to be down on the 5 day forecast, on systems not so large as we have seen lately and not as unusual (we are breaking records with this one), the 5 day forecasts are often pretty good. they are very helpful for those like myself because it is helpful to see what the is thinking. Everyone just needs to remember they are just what they say... experimental. They are really not to be used as official tracks just yet and (just as the models) should not be shown to the general public by the media.
I'm not sure if the media does this because I usually don't watch much of the tracking by the news, etc.
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John
Edited by sullynole (Sun Sep 12 2004 03:43 AM)
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Terra
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Quote:
Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.
My head hurts.
Only one point so far..... maybe more? Hopefully?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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DroopGB31
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I agree Phil. I never really liked it because of the reason you mentioned. Theres just way to much uncertainty past 72 hours as we have seen all year. As soon as we think we have a landfall area set in stone the models shift and everything else shifts and its a nerve wracking mess. Not to mention everyone follows the little line in the center of the cone and say "oh, were not under the line, we dont need to worry". Perfect example being .
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GuppieGrouper
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I keep hearing the forecast official and not so official excluding the Peninsula of Florida in its track. I have seen too many hurricanes pass through the Yucatan passage and end up near or in Florida. It is really too early to say where the cane will go after getting into the gulf. This is really frightening as people are beginning to go numb here in Florida.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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I'll agree on the turn. Last few shots (pics) look like he's going north up the 80.0 longitude line. Recentering Grand Cayman?
The overall size, ahead of the storm appears to be smaller than earlier, too.
That will throw the models another curve ball!
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Rasvar
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Yeah, they have been off. They were also way off on the six hour positions. The 5:00PM six hour posit for 2:00am looks to be the first one that is reasonably close in sometime. Have to hit the 6 hour first a few times before I start trusting the 12. However, I think now that it is away from Jamicia, it will behave until it gets close to Cuba. I think the near term is pretty straightforward. The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west. But I still think if the last two six hour posit forecast can verify pretty close, does not miss Cuba.
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kelcot
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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numb, maybe.....staying prepaired, yes.
My husband just returned from Orlando, Vero, Melbourne Lowes. He took pictures of the stores there (not damage from the storm) The shelves were almost completely empty when they walked in. There's also a picture he took of the parking lot with all the cars lined up to get more wood.
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Kelly
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rule
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Smaller usually equals faster. goes for it. Better in the wide open ocean than near land. Unless poor Caymans enter into it.
Currently I could see the Eyewall rubbing Grand Cayman. In other words, effectly erasing it.
Damn... Hope all can seek shelter... 
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MrSpock
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I have to switch to another sat pic site, as mine is now shifting camera angle, so the storm is harder to track. I would like to see that though.
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FlaRebel
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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So how is Tallahassee looking bud? I'm thinking of hitting the road after work on Monday. Any advice is appreciated.
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LI Phil
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>>>The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west
Not arguing or trying to bust chops, but what makes you say this? Just a hunch (which is fine) or is there some evidence that CAT V's trend west?
Again, a valid question...could have major implications down the road...thanks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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It will turn out to be just a wobble. It has been doing this all day. Many of you have even talked about the stairstepping it has been doing. In the next few frames I bet you anything it evens out back to a mainly west motion, again.
ShawnS
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is about 671 miles out. Should be about 2 hours from the center.
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rule
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DroopGB31,
Good point...." Perfect example being ."
With , it was somewhat, "Oh, it's going into Tampa, ummm...AAAIIIIEEE!!!!!"
You cannot fool around with these things.
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Rasvar
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Truthfully, it is something I have noticed on the Cat 4 and Cat 5's. These stronger storms, IMHO, seem to exert a bit of an influence in the local enviroment that seems to retard some of the forces in front of it. Maybe saying west is a bad term. Most of these storms are already moving in a generally western to WNW motion when I have seen this. It is probably more if a fluid dynamic that is associated with the strongest velocities being in the front right quadrant. Most of the time, that quadrant will be heading W or WNW. Hence my feeling of the extra force being exerted to force it more westerly then the models take into account.
This is all on personal observation with backyard physics. No good science in it.
Defective l key on this laptop keeps dropping l's
Edited by Rasvar (Sun Sep 12 2004 03:54 AM)
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MrSpock
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New ETA has storm clipping Yucatan, new has storm hitting western Cuba. A friend of mine and I used to joke back in the '80s about the disclaimer by the at the end of the forecasts. We used to say "errors may exceed a few hundred thousand miles". Things have come a long way since then.
Sorry, edited to say Western Cuba......There is a 27 hour difference between Earth and Vulcan.....thanks for catching that
Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 03:57 AM)
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Rasvar
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Eastern Cuba?
Glad you edited that. If had gone back east that far, I think I would never trust it again. 
Edited by Rasvar (Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 AM)
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Frank P
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funny things there hurricanes.... several days ago it was forecasted by some that would be hard pressed to get west of 80-81w longitude.... unless something drastic happens in the immediate future he's going well past that benchmark...
still looks to be going around 285-290 overall heading.... but it's gaining latitude slowly, and moving that longitudinal line more to the west as well, which means its going to the GOM.... and most likely Coooba...... then..... ??
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danielw
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Split the difference to get the unofficial track.
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