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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
43.1N 80.3W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Ene at 20 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Shear! [Re: Keith234]
      #25784 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:02 AM

No, 8am advisory definitely says mile, not nm. 90 miles / 150 km.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Re: Shear! [Re: Keith234]
      #25785 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:03 AM

We are all wondering where this will end up. I think I have the answer. If you see a Weather Channel van in your neighborhood, LEAVE!

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Shear! [Re: tenavilla]
      #25786 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:04 AM

Okay, then that's quite a large area of expansion. I can't imagine what Gilbert had looked like!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Shear! [Re: tenavilla]
      #25787 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:05 AM

On another note, here in Tampa one of the local mets just gave a weather update. He all but said we're in the clear and might get some rain, light winds. That's the kind of attitude that gets people hurt. Residents listen to that and don't pay attention to warnings anymore. Ivan's still an awful long way out there to start thinking we're okay.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Re: Shear! [Re: tenavilla]
      #25788 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:05 AM

yes, yesterday the advisories were 50 or something like that....I noticed that expanded also. Part of that could be the reformation of the eyewall, which may be related to the bottom line of the latest message:

260
URNT12 KNHC 121108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1108Z
B. 18 DEG 43 MIN N
81 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2374 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 333 DEG 116 KT
G. 229 DEG 010 NM
H. 919 MB
I. 10 C/ 3084 M
J. 16 C/ 3083 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 12/60
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 2209A Ivan OB 25
MAX FL WIND 140 KT NE QUAD 0726Z. SECONDARY EYEWALL AND WIND
MAX 60 NM DIA. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. WIND CENTER 2 NM DIA.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Shear! [Re: MrSpock]
      #25789 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:14 AM

It's like if you see a 60 Minutes crew at your doorstep in the morning...lol

But it seems the cone has shrunk just a bit when they had Dr Lyons on a few minutes ago, and he said until it goes more west Tampa Bay is not out of play yet.....My biggest concern if this monster keeps moving westerly, New Orleans may be in play and that could be catastrophic. And for us here in North Georgia, if Ivan makes landfall in the panhandle, it's path would be the difference between having heavy rain and winds or having heavy rain, winds and tornadic activity....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: jlauderdal]
      #25790 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:16 AM

Remind me...what did Mitch do?

--------------------
Robynsmom


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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Port Richey FL
Re: Shear! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25791 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:18 AM

A monster storm like Ivan TampaBay is not out of the woods by no means yet

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


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Break in ridge to north? [Re: Terra]
      #25792 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:20 AM

Check out RSO GOES-East Water Vapor 7-Minute Sector
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

I'm truly a novice, but to me this looks as if a small trof has actually broken thru the ridge to the north of the gulf and Florida. And on other water vapor images, it appears that the ridge between Ivan and the gulf is thinning just north of Cuba - a change in this area can be seen at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html, where you can also see the flattening of the ULL to the east of Florida that was referenced in an earlier post.

I'm wondering if these two trends in the ridge/trof topography may give Ivan the opportunity to break out and head in a more northerly fashion .

I'm a long-time avid reader of Flhurricane, but rarely post, except for on-the-spot reports from Ormond Beach during a storm.


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Shear! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25793 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:21 AM

Jeff - I was up in White County, GA when the remnants of Opal came through back in the mid 90's. The winds knocked our power out for days, and besides the wind itself all you could hear were snapping pine trees.

Of course now I'm a half-mile from the Gulf of Mexico...and I won't stick around for the sights and sounds.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Shear! [Re: Kal]
      #25794 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:24 AM

Well Frances sure caught everyone by suprise here in Atlanta. Fraternity Row at Ga Tech just got their power back on Friday evening, and things were so bad at the height of the storm that one county actually had their buses out on the road when the cancelled schools for the day(DeKalb Co.) and the entire state computer system including GEMA's website was down for 18 hours on Tuesday.....

I only shudder to think what would happen if we get stronger winds and more rain this time around.....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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nick8
Unregistered




Re: Shear! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25795 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:33 AM

The models yesterday had Ivan going WNW,NW,N. That has not happened. I have just seen WNW.

Now what if he continues WNW towards the yucatan slowly, the ridge starts to break he turns more NW, then north and then NNE or Ne towards say cedar key as the trough digs in.

The models are begining to get a little bend NE at 120 hours. Ivan has not been cooperating as far as the timing of all these features. Remember he is now 24 hours behind the forecast of 2 days ago.

As things changed in the atmosphere yesterday they will change again unless Ivan starts going along with the NHC. The more he takes his sweet time west things will start to change again. Indeed it will be one interesting week ahead.

(I am as amateur as you can get. I hope this made sense to some of you. If a met can clarify these possibilities in a more professional way it would be appreciated.)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Shear! [Re: nick8]
      #25796 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:38 AM

Was hurricane Mitch like this, in terms of it's track?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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BillD
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Loc: Miami
Re: Shear! [Re: Keith234]
      #25798 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:45 AM

Intially, no, Mitch was much further south, but got pulled all the way from the Bay of Campeche NE across Florida.

Bill


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: Shear! [Re: nick8]
      #25799 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:46 AM

that was pretty much a scenario of several people on this board.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Models and Troughs [Re: rd522525]
      #25800 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:58 AM

I may have said this before but models ALWAYS have a bias when it comes to troughs( or "trofs"). Every model just about will have the trough effecting the storm in almost every case. The problem is that it doesn't happen that way every time. That is why you have to take the models with a grain of salt right now.How long have the models been dictating a NW movement when it has been moving WNW at most. Don't be fooled into automatically thinking that just because these models want to have these troughs have an effect on Ivan that it will happen. Remember, Ivan didn't pay attention to the first trough and he just might not pay attention to any of the rest. Until he actually makes a DEFINITE turn towards the north, definite meaning not just wobbles, than it is just here-say right now.

ShawnS


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: Models and Troughs [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25801 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:03 AM

it looks to me like it could avoid a us strike altogether. its getting closer and closer to the yucatan peninsula. whats your thought on that?

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Orlando
Unregistered




Re: Shear! [Re: Kal]
      #25802 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:04 AM

What are the chances of this thing now heading North and more East? My neighbor just returned 10 sheets of plywood he is so confident it won't hit Central Florida.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Westward trend continues [Re: rd522525]
      #25803 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:05 AM

Good morning everyone. Here in the peninsula of Florida it's another beautiful day. Certainly not the deteriorating conditions that NHC had predicted a couple of days ago.
I imagine that although there is no one there to enjoy it, the day is pretty fantastic in Key West as well.

I think everyone is learning a valuable lesson from Ivan.
That is you have to actually watch the storm to know where it is going and you really can not even begin to trust the 4 and 5 day forecast tracks.
There is such a fine line on when to evacuate and when to stay. Local governments are really forced to make crucial decisions based on the latest forecasts. I'm sure many will have less hair to pull out after Ivan has passed.

I drove up to Daytona Beach yesterday and viewd the damage along the beach. There is a LOT of damage to the hotels and related business's all up and down A1A.
It will take months and months to repair/rebuild there.

As of this morning, I see very little Northward trend in Ivan's track. I did see the ridge building in to the West for the past few days. It has to weakend sometime.
Until then, watch and wait.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Models and Troughs [Re: rd522525]
      #25804 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:05 AM

It all depends on those 500 mb winds, if they change then the path of the hurricane will change. Florida is not out of the woods yet.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Jason234 (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:44 AM)


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