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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: CHECK SATS! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #25760 - Sun Sep 12 2004 03:41 AM

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/east/

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James88
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Re: CHECK SATS! [Re: danielw]
      #25763 - Sun Sep 12 2004 04:33 AM

Now that's an impressive image - Ivan and Javier.

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Domino
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Re: CHECK SATS! [Re: James88]
      #25764 - Sun Sep 12 2004 04:57 AM

Okay...so am I reading the discussion right...they are forecasting this thing to go from a 110KT major hurricane to a 60KT Tropical Storm...in 12 hours? What kinda sheer are they expecting over the gulf? *looks around for the turbofans creating the incredible hurricane stopping wall*

EDIT: It appears there was an error in the discussion forecast. The 60KT forecast was suppose to be "inland" not "over water".

Edited by Domino (Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: CHECK SATS! [Re: danielw]
      #25765 - Sun Sep 12 2004 06:23 AM

I have just noticed that the ULL in the atlantic is getting squashed:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

So if that is happening to the ULL, what is doing it and how will that effect the westward movement of Ivan will that Entity stop Ivan's Westward movement and force him back to the east as well?

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JackF
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Westward Ho! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25766 - Sun Sep 12 2004 07:40 AM

This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?

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jlauderdal
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: JackF]
      #25767 - Sun Sep 12 2004 07:47 AM

Quote:

This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?




i just posted on s2k and put out the scenario of a big slowdown or stall and it styas down there and we eventually get a track way east


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Frank P
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Last two hours=mostly WEST [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25768 - Sun Sep 12 2004 07:50 AM

Last two hours of IR loops shows Ivan mostly west and looks at the moment that it will pass south and west of the Caymen Island..... right now it is due south of the island..... could the Canadian have this thing pegged???... I sure hope not.... the island will get pounded for sure but unless he takes a very hard right, they will not get the worst of the eye wall.... Ivan has not made landfall yet as a Cat 5, but he's running out of options and will have to nail somebody before it all said an done..

things keep trending west, a good sign for central and south florida, not to good for panhandle and perhaps westward?

you can also see the westward movement on the Cuba radar loop, link below

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/01Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif

hard to sleep with a monster lurking about...

As I said about Frances, that I didn't think it would be Floyd type track, I'm starting to think that Ivan will not be a Charlie type event either... just don't see a strong trof playing out and shunting him off to the NE..... but this is a slow moving hurricane and no one can say for sure.... every one from LA to the Fl Keys are still in the game as far as I'm concerned


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Frank P
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: JackF]
      #25769 - Sun Sep 12 2004 07:56 AM

Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...

be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...


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caneman
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: Frank P]
      #25770 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:04 AM

Quote:

Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...

be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...




Local met just said the slower Westerly movement is worse for us on West coast and indicated if it ended up on the Yucatan it would get pulled to the Big Bend area. I guess getting caught up in the Westerlies.


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Frank P
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: caneman]
      #25771 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 AM

that might end up being the case and for my sake I sure hope so as I don't want any part of the thing... but right now as things appear on the sat and radar loops it sure looks to be heading towards the Yucatan Channel or extreme western tip of Cuba.... of course things can and do change...

you look at the overall track history since entering the Caribbean he's been on a basically overall steady WNW direction for a long time.... I think this will continue for a while longer before the NW to N to perhaps a NNE turn... and I think I'm am buying what the models are dishing out at the moment..... for the short term anyway

if its stalls, all bets are off naturally.....


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: Frank P]
      #25773 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:32 AM

I just spotted a trof dipping down into the masondixon area of theUS. This little cane hangs around playing the callipso much longer and it will get booted back over the Tampa Bay area as though it was intended to go there all along. DISCLAIMER:
I have no business making forecasts as I did not stay at a Holiday INN last night and I don't know a trof from a trough!

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Frank P
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25774 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:37 AM

hehe....

heck it might just wobble right on to the WNW all the way to Texas .... who knows

slow moving powerful hurricanes are such a royal pain in the butt......


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SAM33
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25775 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:38 AM

looks as if there could be a east turn now in the GOM.... i see the ULL of florida weakening and a strong ridge coming down out of middle of US, which i think the models are picking up on..... problem is timing....storm has got to get into gulf for it to get picked up and shoved NE and possibly to the east coast, through florida and out to atlantic.... looks like Panama City eastward to Fort Myers, more like Big Bend, to Fort Myers look to be under the gun.....interesting that Ivan is about to miss his another island

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Fred08
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Re: Shear! [Re: SAM33]
      #25776 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:43 AM

for some reason i see the shear starting to take effect in the gulf.... look just off the texas coast..... strong shear too....

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Terra
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Re: Westward Ho! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25777 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:47 AM

I must have missed the northerly component while sleeping. That is too bad, as I would have liked to see it go with the mets are saying. I'm still saying miss Cuba and end up much further west than projections.

I also wanted to reply to the long post on page 5 about the models. I don't remember all of my points, but I agreed with some of what you said. I personally like the 5-day forecast for scientific purposes, not public knowledge. 5-days is way too far out to get a good estimate, but a bad estimate (to me) is better than nothing. I think the cone is vital to those models, as it shows the uncertainty. So, when you're comparing shifts in model predictions, ask yourself.... is it still in the original cone? The the model is valid and the shift is reasonable. The reason the cone is so large at 5-days is the uncertainty increases dramatically. If you remove the cone, you will panic the public, who do not understand that the model predictions are only estimates and not the actual track. They will think that the actual model prediction is what is going to happen. People tend to overrestimate the knowledge and understanding of the general public.... We are not the general public! The cone at least shows the possibility of error. Anyway, I would try and deter the media from showing this forecast and often unnecessarity worrying the public.

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Keith234
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Re: Shear! [Re: Fred08]
      #25778 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:50 AM

Your right there is some shear, but the storm isn't forecasted to go into the central Gulf. The storm right now is crazy strong, on the infared imagery there is some black cloud tops, you hardely ever see those!

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Keith234
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Re: Shear! [Re: Keith234]
      #25780 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:58 AM

I'm just not seeing this north turn, maybe a NW turn but anything more than that is drastic. It seems like all the models want the hurricane to hit Florida or near it. Maybe I'm not seeing what the models are seeing but it seems that the models keep on turning Ivan and Ivan plows thur on it's WNW NW course. That would be something if it made landfall on the Yutcatan Penisula.

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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tenavilla
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Re: Shear! [Re: Keith234]
      #25781 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:59 AM

Anyone notice that hurricane force winds now extend 90 miles from the center. Seems like yesterday morning they only extended 30, or maybe 50?

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Keith234
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Re: Shear! [Re: tenavilla]
      #25782 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:00 AM

You mean NM?

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Shear! [Re: tenavilla]
      #25783 - Sun Sep 12 2004 09:01 AM

I am sure this hurricane has not read climatology and does not give a rotten fig for what we think of it. But it is sure interesting to watch.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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