MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Ivan is currently restructuring itself which is likely why it looks like it is wobbling west. This process should complete over the next few hours, and I would expect more of a shift after that. The current averaged motion of 300 deg. is only 15 deg. from true NW, so that is not much of a change. Here are 2 links of interest, the first has some nice graphics, the second is a water vapor sat pic which shows the strong trough digging in the central plains.
http://midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.php?con...&hwvmetric=
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html
There is probably a better site that will put it in motion, but I haven't found it yet. The site I was using showed pics a hour or 2 old.
Here's a site with animation, although not many frames:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
edited to fix link
Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 12:59 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I was able to put into motion the last link with 5 hours of data, and the trough is digging well, now to the Texas, La. coast. The new is continuing its trend of closing off a weak ULL over New England which is acting as a magnet to which it draws up the storm. This "should" be at 315 deg. or more within the next 12 hours in my opinion. This trough is looking like it is increasing its amplitude, as the ridge line builds north into Wyoming, forcing the base of the trough further south. This appears to be digging, not lifting out.
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SoonerShawn
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Where have you been? I've said all along, and this is the last time I will say it, that it is NOT coming to Texas and I don't want it to anyway. Does this satisfy you now?
I'm just pointing out the chance of doing his own thing and still putting everyone along the whole gulf coast at risk. I'm just watching out for everyone.
ShawnS
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The reason why I bring it Shawn is that has dodged alot of the land.I think that is why we might be seeing the stairstep now.Ivan goes little N feels the land persay then back WNW.Once is thru the YUC there is no land for a long ways.
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Keith234
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The arrival of the jet stream will cause the trough to strenghten, so this will have some affects on . That link really depicts the trough very well, also the ridge. Excellent work MrSpock.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HMY
Unregistered
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Forgive me here, but what will this mean for -is the start of the N turn? Wish we knew where he'd end up. Tired of eating storm food, but also tired of losing the real food with power outages. I'm becoming delirious here, trying to plan the grocery shopping. Forgive me again...
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rd522525
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Be interesting to hear your input on where this suckers going! been waiting since friday. did I miss it?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Thank you, now needs to cooperate.......the strength of that trough could also increase the shear on the system. So far, it has nine lives though.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Shoot, I don't even have renter's insurance and don't plan on getting it right now. Does that tell you how confident I am that will not make a trip to Texas...LOL!
ShawnS
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I've busted on scott for the lack of a forecast, but I'll defend him now...He has posted several times with approximations...I don't think ANYONE has a handle on this right now...he doesn't want to make a forecast until 72 hours from US landfall...but we are approaching that time now.
This looks to be a panhandle strike Wednesday afternoon, and I'm hoping (praying) it's as a CAT II, but it depends upon way too many things ATTM.
Ivan's pressure is up to 921mb and he's going thru yet another . Still hasn't decided if he wants to make that northward turn, but all model guidance suggests it.
BTW, y'all in MS don't wanna know what the ETA is progging. I'll just say that the year the Miracle Mets won the WS there was a storm of note...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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The sat pics show well the trough that is EXPECTED to cause the shift in track, but since there is little data in storms of this magnitude and size, forecasting those turns becomes much more difficult, a la Gilbert. That trough is the one that has received a lot of mention from the various forecasters and those of us on this board. I wish I could nail it down, but don't feel confident trying to. I'll leave that to the and the mets on here. The key is, if this is to turn, the reason is on that pic, and the other sat pics don't show that nearly as well as does the water vapor loop.
It would be nice if wherever this hits, there could be a strong consensus soon, so that anyone in the path can have the proper time to prepare. I think that is one of the more frustrating things.
Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 12:24 PM)
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rd522525
Unregistered
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ive got enough food at my house to last for a year from all these canes. Im ready to have my husband take all the steel off the windows, I am living in a dungeon! The property is still full of branches and moss. figured we would wait till round 2 to get everything tidy again.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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In all likely hood, will have the least chance of hitting Texas. See as Sept rolls around, the westerly flow starts to resume or become more noticiable, so once the hurricane gets to say the latitude of about south florida, it should start to move eastward and increase in foward speed.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Sun Sep 12 2004 12:30 PM)
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
The total rain looks to be a system that does not report rain as the software expects. Rain rate is normally dynamic. Looks like the rain counts have not been reset for this system. Can't by the tenths of an inch argument. There is not a rain gage that would report down to a ten thousandths of an inch like that report would be showing.
Could the 72"" of rain actually be 6' of sea water?
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Loc: Leesburg, FL
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huh???
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> so once the hurricane gets to say the latitude of about south florida, it should start to move westward and increase in foward speed.
Don't you mean eastward?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Maybe the software doesn't account for tropical rainfall, aren't the droplets larger? Anyway, 's pressure has risen somewhat showing signs of another eyewall replacement, this one is going to bring it below 900 mb.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Yep, that's what I mean. I was thinking of the wind blowing from the west. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I gotta run,, but even though i been hyping over the impulse droping down from the southern plains and gulf coast,, Im going to go out on a limb and say landfall will be near Biloxi, Ms. I would advise people within 100 miles of there to take preperations as needed. Category 3 hurricane should arrive by weds. I was off on the 25N and 84W but that was posted before the Jamaica interaction and kept it westerly underdoing the more se flow just n of the system now. If Im off by more then 100 miles of landpoint from this 3 day forcast I will really try to look hard at why this was. Still everyone From LA to Panama City should keep a eye on the impact of the trough coming down to see how much of a turn and when this storm will make. Gotta go.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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werent you a shark last night? I liked the shark...
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