Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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12Z model run has it at the MS/LA line in 96 hours.... regardless of some of the models shifting west I expect the following statement in the 5:00 pm update........
""THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.""
The GOM... "the graveyard of busted forecasts..... "
and more busted forecasts to come I'm sure..
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HMY
Unregistered
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Round and round and round he blows, where he stops, nobody knows...
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dolphinscry
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 6
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Hello,
I have been watching and waiting along w/ everyone all over the state since went and surprised us all.
I am in Sumter co., and since we are where we are, sometimes it is hard to get proper info.
(We get weather for Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville) I guess the biggest ?? here in the sort of North/Central-West/Central part of Florida is how badly should we be affected?
The weather right now is nasty, and we have so many oaks ready to come down that were weakened by .
IF it were to stay on track, and even if NOT, the western Gulf will have weather, regaurdless.
....Unless of course it blows WAY off track, which I dont see happening either.
Anyway, Hello to you all, and thank you for all the great and interesting insights!
--------------------
"If you can't be a good example,
then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." -Catherine Aird
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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jason,
can you give me a link of finding what the actual storm surge was here during Opal?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS LED
TO MORE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS
VERY WET SCENARIO FOR MONDAY...I FEEL IT WENT TOO FAR ON THE DRY
SIDE THIS TIME...THUS KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST (40% SOUTHEAST...TRENDING TO 20 NORTHWEST).
IVAN IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT AS OF 12Z THAN IT WAS AT 6Z. SPREAD IS NOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN BILOXI MS AND APALACHEE BAY FL. OFFICIAL TRACK IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS A
TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK HAS BEEN EVIDENT. OUR MAIN
CONCERN IT THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES WHICH I FEE IT WILL. A
LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN FL OR EVEN AL WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE IMPACT TO CENTRAL AL. THE KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
THIS TRACK IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN. LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE A BIT CONCERNING IN THAT
THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ALREADY BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COULD BE STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IF THIS IS INDEED
THE CASE...A LANDFALL MUCH FURTHER WEST WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WHICH LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHEREVER ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WINDS UP...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL AL LATE WED AND THURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND AROUND 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD
ENCOMPASS AN AREA FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS...TO TALLAHASSEE.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looking at the morning visible satellite image from Monterey CAT 4 Hurricane is undergoing another weakening cycle due to eyewall replacement as the north eyewall grazes Grand Cayman Island. I also notice a blowup of convection in his west eyewall much like CAT 4 .
Looking at a long satellite image loop continues to slow his forward speed and is moving at more like 280 deg. then the 290 deg. (WNW) that the is describing. If this current track holds then could clip the Yucatan Peninsula and become a threat to the mid Gulf Coast of the U.S. But, the blow up of convection in the west eyewall could be a sign that a more NW turn will begin soon. I can't put forth a big argument with the current forecast track. BUT looking at the latest water vapor satellite image I see a slight weakening of the large Bermuda high pressure ridge and a strengthening and southward digging of the 500 mb shortwave in the vicinity of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. I think this trend will continue, with forecast models and the official track coming back towards the east with time.
I think we will see return to CAT 5 status later today with a passage across the western end of Cuba west of the Isle Of Youth and then emerge into the Gulf Of Mexico around 84-85 deg. west longitude as a CAT 4 sometime on Tuesday September 14, 2004. will then encounter SW-W wind shear and weaken to a CAT 3-2 cyclone with a NNE-NE track landfall around Apalachicola. There is still a good "chance" for a further east landfall in the vicinity of Cedar Key with some damaging storm surge in the shallow estuary of Tampa Bay and northward along the Nature Coast.
I continue to monitor the amateur radio weather net on 14325.0 kc. I'm hearing very few amateur radio operators on the air from Jamaica and no one from the Cayman Islands, a bad sign to me.
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JK,
Just when do you see the northward turn coming? Cuz to my untrained eye, he looks like he's going to cross 85W before he gets to 20N. And he also appears to be undergoing a MAJOR at the moment. I'm guessing when he's done shedding his skin, he spins down to a ~900mb monstah.
Also, whatever happened to the dude who wanted to rent a 747 to drop you-know-what into poor .
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Don't disagree with this analysis...Ivan may pass Cuba just off shore to the western tip, but its trip into the GOM will be back to the NNE-NE...the trough is rapidly descending into the Gulf coast its into mid LA now and the ridge is lifting out Nobody eneto north of the center as it emerges into the GOM is out of the woods untiit passes them by
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doug
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Theres alot of people on other boards with the same cedar key/ tampa scenario.
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Tony
Unregistered
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andy1tom,
Check out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html , section b, "Meteorological Statistics". It says the Panama City Beach piertide gage was 8.3 feet above sea level with an added 10 feet of breaking waves on top of that, totally 18' above mean sea level. Hope this helps you.
Tony
Panama City
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tikibar
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
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I thought that stuff was already de-bunked as snake oil? 
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5d.html
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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But have they tried Dyno Gel Ultra??
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I still have a feeling that pushing the first trof back to the north is somehow going to have an effect on the second trof. Now I know I will be the only one to say this but that is just my feeling.
ShawnS
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at the last 2 hours of the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
I see very little motion....none to the west and only a very small jog to the north. If this thing completely stalls out...then all future track bets are off.
--Lou
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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thanks tony,
not on the beach but on the water. almost 7 ft above sea level. already making plans to get the kids outta of dodge and just wondering when i need to. Opal didn't get in the house but you couldn't see any yard just all water. and land fall was a good 80 miles from here.
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tikibar
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
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shhh
you're not s'posed to use that word here
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Ivan .
where are you going?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Quote:
Fortunately, nothing else is popping up out there. (knocking on wood)
At least in this neck of the woods, there isn't any wood to knock on. 
I'll probably sound like a broken record since I just came on (it's football season, too!) but I have to tell you that at this point, I wouldn't bet my life savings on Central Florida avoiding a miss, even it's 50 miles offshore. I've noticed in the last couple of discussions (since 11 last night) that they are keeping the track to the east of model guidance. It also looks like some of the models are now shifting a *tad* back to the right again, but I would think that they would wait for some more consistent runs before putting some of the central peninsula back into the cone.
Keep in mind that I am not a met and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, either. Although that might not be a bad idea because at least I might get some sleep. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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clueless
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I am really new to hurricanes, but I think I am noticing something that I cant explain. For a few days before both and Charlie I seem to remember that the winds were unusually strong here and that my sinuses were a mess which happens every time we get any frontal activity (High or low doesnt seem to matter). If my memory serves me correctly the changes I saw were too far in front of the storm to actually attribute them to the storm. Can anyone help me to understand better what I have seen, because I am still noticing that here now and trying to destress myself a little bit 
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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NYJ 31
CIN 24
TEN 17
MIA 7
WAS 16
TB 10
JAX 13
BUF 10
SEA 21
NO 7
What was that about the 'aints offense Steve?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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