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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Jane219ga
Registered User


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Posts: 8
Loc: Valrico, FL
Re: Ivan Turning More [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26416 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:55 PM

Funny that Howard Shapiro brought up Elena; I have been thinking of that storm throughout the whole Ivan watch. Talk about unpredictable!!!! We had just moved here just a few months before - we did go to Busch Gardens on Labor Day after Elena - pretty much had the place to ourselves!

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Steve]
      #26417 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 PM

I agree steve. It is people like that who give anons a bad rep.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26418 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:58 PM

Please do not panic...while it is wise to be cautious and even suspicious of movements we think we see in the storm from Sat pics ( I do this type of analysis more than most by the way) it is also prudent to let the professionals tells us what is going on..Sat pics are taken at different angels and often have time and orientation difficulties. If a trend is seen in them for several hours then that is probably noteworthy. .NHC has been pretty good generally this season (note I've backed off on my unequivocal endorsement posted last week). Forecaster Stewart's discussion at 11 a.m.said it all and there is reason for caution and increased diligence along the entire west coast of Florida, as the closer it actually may come the more effects we will see. However there is no reason for warnings or the like yet. Admittedly if and when they are posted it will be a very short time period before conditions consistent with the warnngs are experienced (24hrs or so)..
That is why cautious preparation is the best bet, IMO.

--------------------
doug


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clueless
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Steve]
      #26419 - Mon Sep 13 2004 12:59 PM

I agree the poster's message may have been more than just a tad alarmist, but if the purpose of this board is to educate and inform than maybe that would be a better response than banning them. I am new to all of this hurricane stuff myself and have really been glad to learn from all of you who know hwat you are talking about. Some people learn best by expressing their thoughts and having someone help them understand the flaws.

Just a thought


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Steve]
      #26420 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM

I agree 100%....

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: GaryC]
      #26421 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM

Just listened to the 1230pm news on WSB-AM and they had someone on from FEMA talking about the effects of Ivan on North Georgia, and the quote was something like stock up on batteries, flashlights and water....

This might not be the day to head to the grocery store for the weekly shopping.....

Also anyone know when the next recon flight will happen?

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Mon Sep 13 2004 01:03 PM)


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richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Steve]
      #26422 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:03 PM

Steve, I totally agree. I'm a registered poster who lost his password and is fixing to go retrieve it right now. Mike emailed me on how I can get it. The last thing we need in a situation like this is someone getting hysterical and causing more people to panic when they don't need to be. Trust me, I'm sure the NHC is seeing everything that any of us on here are privileged to see and more and I'm sure they will issue the proper warnings at the appropriate times. Please don't freak out people on here looking for information who don't have a real understanding of whats going on with this storm.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 337
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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: GaryC]
      #26423 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:04 PM

Quote:

I agree steve. It is people like that who give anons a bad rep.




Two things:
One, people are very scared after Frances and Charley
two, a lot of new people who have never followed hurricanes or hurricane season are discovering
the internet and sat and radar pics etc .
They just don't have enough hurricane savy so to speak.

Watch and be ready but realize that the NHC has a fairly good handle on Ivan.


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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Posts: 109
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: clueless]
      #26424 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:05 PM

Being worried is one thing but there are too many people who come on here and place stupid post that are mostly from anonns and then one of the moderators have to delete it. Why waste the time deleting the post when they can just make it to where if you are not going to take the time to register then you cant post.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: GaryC]
      #26425 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:09 PM

The rules are and some of the ANON's may not know this is IF you have an opinion then stateit but ALSO tells us the reasons for it...don't just pop off and say "warnings need to be posted immediately the Sat Pics tell us why" but state why the sat pics say why...then others can review the data confirm or refute it.
Uncorroborated opinions are just that...I ignore them

--------------------
doug


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grasshopper2004
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: doug]
      #26426 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:14 PM

So after watching the Water Vapor and Visibal Sat Loops all morning it seems to me that the Low over TN is pushing the High pressure boundry ESE. Would this not "block" Ivan and push it off to the east?

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lilyv
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: doug]
      #26427 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:15 PM

Quote:


Uncorroborated opinions are just that...I ignore them




Well put.


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: grasshopper2004]
      #26430 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:19 PM

per Stewart(NHC) "the latest WV imagery and the latest upper air data indicate a 500MB low over W. Tenn. with a sharp N/S oriented trough extending southward into the NCentral GOM ...has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the central and eastern GOM."
it was this ridge that Ivan has been following...inference in this is it will slide more to the right.

--------------------
doug


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grasshopper2004
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: doug]
      #26431 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM

I read that too. Was just wondering if that is in fact what I am seeing. Is that Boundry expected to continue to dirve SE? If so I would have to belive that is bad news for us (N Tampa).

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Loc: parrish,fl
Re: model shifts [Re: doug]
      #26432 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM

By the way in the 11am discussion I noted Stewart said the model guidance shifted "westward". I think he meant "Eastward" didn't he? It actually shifted about 35 miles east I think

--------------------
doug


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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Posts: 109
Re: model shifts [Re: doug]
      #26434 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM

I was thinking that too doug, but just thought it was me.

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Mozart
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: Ivan Turning More [Re: DMFischer]
      #26435 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM

Regarding those rain bands in Cocoa Beach...those were the outer bands of Ivan:

Infrared Loop of Western Atlantic

Good God he's big.


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kirdona
Registered User


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Posts: 4
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26436 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:27 PM

I was headed out to do that today and I thought I was being a tad alarmist....didn't think it could affect us this far inland. Glad to know someone else thinks I'm being proactive. :P I just moved to Columbus, GA from Phoenix. I have no idea what to expect, and will be home by myself with two small kids if and when it hits here. What should I be stocking up on? What can I expect? Thanks!!!

Edited by kirdona (Mon Sep 13 2004 01:36 PM)


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Tallahassee
Unregistered




Re: model shifts [Re: GaryC]
      #26437 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:29 PM

I agree Doug, it DID shift Eastward.

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Posts: 109
Re: Ivan Turning More [Re: Mozart]
      #26438 - Mon Sep 13 2004 01:30 PM

looks like it

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