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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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storm chaser
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26461 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM

If that was meant for me I did not take humor to it!

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DMFischer
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Re: New Vortex: 912mb [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26462 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM

Quote:

Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with Ivan. Ivans farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.




Well, I looked at this loop and I could see outflow going all the way up to the cape. Please, correct me if I am wrong here, but if I am not seeing flow that is directly attached to Ivan, explain to me what I am seeing. Please.
Infared loop

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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wrybyndblf
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26463 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:54 PM

Thank you so much. I have been lurking for WEEKS and I think this is the first "forecast" I haven't fretted over. I needed it. Thnx a bunch!

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recmod
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26464 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:55 PM

Am I alone in thinking this was not funny in the least? My heart jumped in my throat when I started to read this post. Sitting here in Central FL with signs turning somewhat more ominous as to the possible future outcome with Ivan, I think the time has passed for off-color attempts at humor

--Lou


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storm chaser
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: recmod]
      #26465 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM

Quote:

Am I alone in thinking this was not funny in the least? My heart jumped in my throat when I started to read this post. Sitting here in Central FL with signs turning somewhat more ominous as to the possible future outcome with Ivan, I think the time has passed for off-color attempts at humor

--Lou




no it was not funny, it was sarcastic and I feel it was directed to me.


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LI Phil
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: recmod]
      #26466 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM

I took it down as soon as I read it...while some might appreciate the wry attempt at humor, with so many people on edge right now, this was not the time nor the place for something "official" looking.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: recmod]
      #26467 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:58 PM

Agree, Time for jokes is past.
Now is the time to put out good information and save lives.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: model shifts [Re: Steve]
      #26468 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:59 PM

Who is Joe Bastardi? The way people talk about him, he seems legendary, but I've never heard of him before this board....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Ed in Va
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: LI Phil]
      #26469 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:02 PM

Sorry...did not mean to offend or scare anyone...was only meant as a somewhat lighted hearted look at everyone's frustration of where Ivan is going.

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LI Phil
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26470 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:03 PM

Well, as I said, normally it would have been pretty funny (maybe you want to repost it in the comedy forum), but it had the "official" look and, while certainly tongue in cheek, it scared the everliving $h!+ out of me until I got the joke...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
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Re: model shifts [Re: Terra]
      #26471 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:05 PM

Joe Bastardi is an Accuweather forecaster. I am not a fan (of Accuweather in general), and I'll leave it at that.

Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 13 2004 03:06 PM)


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BillD
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Re: Special HFC Statement [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26472 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:06 PM

I got a good laugh out of it.

Bill


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Jeffmidtown
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Re: model shifts [Re: Terra]
      #26473 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:07 PM

He's the lead meterologist for Accu-Weather and one of the top hurricane guys.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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SC Bill
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Re: model shifts [Re: Terra]
      #26474 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM

FINALLY! A question on here I can answer.

Joe Bastardi is a senior (the senior?) forecaster for Accuweather. He had a free site for a while that had very good analysis, sometimes somewhat off the wall, but often very accurate forecasting. I believe he NAILED Gaston this year, well before most others even had a hint it would appear. He often relies on "teleconnections" to storms/weather in the Pacific, but others on here (HankFrank?) can explain that, I can't. Anyway, he went to "pay per view" some time ago.


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Ed in Va
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Landfall? [Re: MrSpock]
      #26475 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM

Looks like Ivan will clip the far west end of Cuba. Will that be considered the firstl landfall? What's that area like...much population?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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lilyv
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Re: model shifts [Re: Terra]
      #26476 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/promotional.asp?type=jb_where

Just about everything you'd want to know about Joe B. I think he was a wrestler, hence some folks call him
"the muscled one"


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richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: model shifts [Re: doug]
      #26477 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM

I agree with that to. It could definietly go to the east part of the cone.

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GaryC
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Re: model shifts [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26478 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:10 PM

That is right only about 10% of the time.. Just opinion...not actuall #'s

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MrSpock
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26479 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:12 PM

I don't know about population, but they will be in the eastern eyewall.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Early Afternoon thoughts... [Re: MrSpock]
      #26480 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM

So far, the forecast is panning out just about as we expected here in my weather office...the turn is slighly sharper than I first thought, but in the end it should be about right regardless.

One thing to remember as you look at 12Z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. Stacy caught this, and will probably expand upon it at 5.

I see no reason to change my forecast philosophy or reasoning and am now going to call for a landfall, near or (more likely) in my viewing area, just slightly west of Panama City, early Thursday (time to hang my hat on something...I have hedged long enough).

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Mon Sep 13 2004 03:15 PM)


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