Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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This is an excerpt from 2PM Tampa Bay discussion:
BUT AS LONG AS REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE IT REMAINS A
THREAT TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALL AREAS MUST REMAIN
ALERT TO ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS IT WOULD HAVE
A DIRECT EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. IF THE STORM TRACKS 100 MILES EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK...IT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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If I remeber correctly the western end of Coo-ba is not as densely populated as the central part of the island. Mostly tobacco farms in that end...And they were evacated to Havana I think on Saturday or yesterday.
So this may make the stogies from Habana a bit more expensive as well...
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Second landfall--the first was in Grenada (the eye went right over it)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Thanks... so maybe I should be slightly concerned about his mouth if the Miss. prediction.... hhmm.... Ok, next question. Can someone give me a link to a full-color pressure map that shows all of the isobars for the highs and lows. I found one on another thread and cannot find it for the life of me. I am curious to where the low center in the GOM is and the high center in the two ridges actually are....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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875
URNT12 KNHC 131906
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/18:46:40Z
B. 20 deg 57 min N
084 deg 38 min W
C. NA mb 2342 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 120 deg 157 kt
G. 026 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 8 C/ 3054 m
J. 18 C/ 3051 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
Well, if there's good news, it seems the pressure might have stopped dropping. Overall, his satellite presentation remains excellent. Convection appears to be refiring on the N and NW side...which had previously been supressed.
--Lou
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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GFDL forecast model
this, as far as I know, may be as close as you can come to showing all of the isobars, but it is a bit complicated--there are two highs with a low in the middle, and the Gulf low is actually in the upper levels of the atmosphere
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Some more lovely info to hold onto.......................
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Got this off of special tropical statement.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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What does a flightlevel of 157 kt translate to at the surface?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
What does a flightlevel of 157 kt translate to at the surface?
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php About 160mp/h
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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JB is a great forecaster Mr.Spock. In regard to , his track remains NW and I keep on hearing that the is on track. What are they talking about, maybe in the cone but he is heading in a different direction then predicted. I think will make landfall by New Orleans, I think will continue on it's NW course. In the longrange, I agree with JB on his area of devlopment of that wave. I know he tries to devlop almost everything out there but I think he's right this time, we'll see. No harm meant JB , that is if he does come to this website!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Look at this link, especially the last 5 frames:
UHMET LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
It might not be going due north, but if you catch the last 5 frames of it, it's more NNW than NW. At least that's what it looks like to me.
You can also see the bands of this storm reaching ALL the way into Daytona, Cocoa Beach and that rain band that was seen looks to me on this loop that it did indeed come from .
IMHO, I think we will see a gradual shift to the east with this track, over the next two days. It doesn't have to make landfall in Tampa to give us a whole load of problems. Also, the link that LoisCane posted does indeed show why may soon take that NNW/N track instead. It's telling that the west side of the storm seems to be getting a little sheared (if that's the right terminology) as it looks like it's getting pulled northward. It also looks like that trough/ridge/front coming down into Texas is stronger and faster than previously thought. I agree that the western tip of Cuba may be the first land actually hits since Grenada. I wouldn't look for a huge track shift, just a gradual one.
Feel free to correct me if I'm incorrect. Just be gentle, my nerves are frayed and I might cry.
But, I'm no Joe Bastardi. 
Clarification on Elena: I posted too soon on the hard right into Central Florida. He pointed out the actual landfall which was NOT Central Florida, so I apologize for that error. I would have corrected it earlier, but my computer froze.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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DMFischer,
You are correct in my opinion...
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troy
Unregistered
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Where I work (Kennedy Space Center) we have closed circuit; a limited suply of channles, including TV and what I gather is 's weather TV. Anyway, one cool feature is a channel with sat images looped. It cahnges form local to a wider view etc. One shows with the forecast track super imposed over it (drawn as a line, not just forcasted points). apperas to be a bit to the right of the forecasted track.
I mentioned this same feature with Charlie back when he started trending more to the right. Was much easier to view on the tv than the pc.
A few more hours ofthis need to happen before its a real deviation of a track. But, it does appear to be more straight forward than a woble.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I never said anything about J.B. I said Accuweather.
Quote:
Joe Bastardi is an Accuweather forecaster. I am not a fan (of Accuweather in general), and I'll leave it at that.
edited to add quote
Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 13 2004 03:24 PM)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I wish someone could anwer whether that wa a new Bastardi forecast after the turn occurred, or before the turn. Contrary to some on here, I find him very accurate. He will miss a few, but most of the time, he is dead on. If he has a bias, it is to either 1. turn storms too much (i.e. ) or 2. try to take them to Texas. He also has a tendency to give worst case scenarios, but rarely actually predicts them. In my opinion, he is much better with long term forecasts and pattern eveolvement, but I will still listen to what he has to say.
Long story short, if this was post turn forecast, there has to be a good explanation for him continuing to forecast the more westward track.
Sorry for rambling on.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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One thing to remember, the fixes from recon can have an error of up to 2 miles, and they MAY not have hit the exact center (in fact, I think they missed it) so don't read too much into the 915 pressure reading.
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Jason Kelley
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Quote:
Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with . s farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.
Thanks for calling me out on that one. I appreciate your welcoming me to the board.
So, what do you call those little rain showers spinning off of going through Central Florida in the picture I attached?
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richiesurfs
Unregistered
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Jason,
i was just up there to visit family when we evacuated from here in Indialantic for and I had my brother turn your forecast on so I could see it since I've read so many of your posts on here the last couple of years. You called right and unfortunately it looks like you might be calling right. i hope your wrong this time for everyones sake in that region. Anyhow, Your forecast, when I was there, was really good, really informative and you had a way of explaining complicated stuff so that us guys that don't know much could understand it. I think in situations like this, i.e. , ... a TV weather forecaster need to convey something that gives the people watching confidence in what is being said and you do that. My prayers are with you guys.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Thanks for the kind words Rich....I'd rather be wrong on this one, but we will have to see...
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Jason Kelley
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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The recon also said it was extrapolated. Doesn't that mean they didn't get a dead-on reading, just calculated it based on other data they gathered?
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