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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: MikeC]
      #26501 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:30 PM

That "trough" that someone said is stretched across central Florida isn't really the trough at all. You can clearly see the boundary between the high pressure system to the west and the trough setup north of Florida. As of right now it appears Ivan will continue the WNW motion until it's even with about Beacon Hill/Apalachicola(around 85W), then it will track north from there. It has passed well west of the Isle of Youth, and will probably scrape the very western end of Cuba.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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staggy
Unregistered




Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26502 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM

more on the new disturbance from the 13:35 South Florida Forecast Discussion:

A NEWLY DEVELOPED DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS
MORNING IS FORECASTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BECAUSE IS SO FAR AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...PLAN ON NOT CHANGING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS DISTURBANCE.


If this disturbance moves NW as quickly as it sounds like it will, could it have an effect on Ivan or will he be far enough north by then? hmm...


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: model shifts [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26503 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM

Colleen: that is a WV loop and it may not give a true representation of the actual movement of the center; HOWEVER having said that the Dvorak does confirm at least two hours of more northerly, almost NNW movements.
What the wv suggests is an alignment of the moisture to support a more northerly motion. someone else suggested that earlier.
Too early to say this is a trend lets see again in an hour or so,

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
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Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: tenavilla]
      #26504 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:33 PM

Think I'm going to ask Mike to make a new forum (or 3):

The Stacy Stewart Fan Club

The JB Fan/Foe Club

The Jason Kelley Fan Club

Seriously, though, JK's been pretty spot on with Ivan the whole way, and unfortunately for him, Coop, Andy1Tom and others, this one may be WAY too close to home...

Godspeed PCB.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: AgentB]
      #26505 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:34 PM

It is not moving WNW now but NW to maybe even NNW

--------------------
doug


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Colleen A.
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Re: model shifts [Re: doug]
      #26506 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM

Thanks...I keep forgetting about the difference in WV loops and such. Information overload, know what I mean?

I think I'm going to take a nap. Short on sleep, short on patience and definitely in need of a break from loops.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: AgentB]
      #26507 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM

Can anyone confirm that watches will be issued at 4pm for the cental gulf coast?

Our eas just went off for this

HURRICANE Ivan HAS GENERATED A SERIES OF LARGE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS SHOW LARGE
SWELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF 27 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...TRAVELING
NORTHWARD AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AS A RESULT LARGE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER THIS EVENING.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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jth
Storm Tracker


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New Tropical Depression [Re: LI Phil]
      #26508 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM

First advisory at 5PM. Could this throw a wrench in the Ivan sweepstakes??? Could this pump up the ridge east of FL and force Ivan back more westerly???

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recmod
Weather Guru


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New Disturbance [Re: staggy]
      #26509 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM

Quote:


...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.




Geee...looking at the model runs for this new system, I thought it looked like a threat to Puerto Rico, but then looked likely to turn out to sea....

--Lou


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mlamay
Registered User


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Re: model shifts [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26510 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM

I definitely think you are right it looks like almost a due North movement. I believe we will see a track shift back to the East at 5p.m. My forcast will put Ivan on land E of Tallahassee on Thursday a.m.

I just can't see New Orleans being hit with this one especially just seeing the UKMET loop.

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb [Re: doug]
      #26511 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM

Doesn't seem like it would take much more N motion. to be quite a problem for the Keys, esp. since they're on the east side of the storm. I hope those people aren't coming back to soon.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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TD11 [Re: LI Phil]
      #26512 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM

11L.NONAME

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: New Tropical Depression [Re: jth]
      #26513 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM

New thread around 5, much shorter than the current one.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: model shifts [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26514 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:40 PM

Jason or Clark might want to agree or disagree with this but the showers over the central florida area are NOT from the outer bands of Ivan. They are from a couple different factors such as daytime heating, easterly flow of moisture from the atlantic, and troughiness over the eastern gulf. The outer bands of Ivan are in the keys and extreme southwestern florida.
I also now note a jog to the NNW,, if this turn continues and to the N during the evening then watches and area impact might move further east. Just matters on how much of the digging of the trough comes into the eastern gulf,,,,The strong trough over the rockies is pushing the ridge over Texas and the western gulf alittle more insueing the trough to maybe come alittle more ese then expected eroding the ridge alittle more over the florida-bahamas area.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: New Disturbance [Re: recmod]
      #26515 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:41 PM

Keep an eye on it as that is how all the other major disturbances began...........I may just leave the shutters on longer.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: New Tropical Depression [Re: jth]
      #26517 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:45 PM

outflow from Ivan could be harsh on this system.

--------------------
doug


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: model shifts [Re: scottsvb1]
      #26518 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM

Local met (Bay News 9) just said bands from Ivan were moving up to and through central FL. He might be wrong, but that's what he said.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: New Tropical Depression [Re: doug]
      #26519 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM

The latest HPC track has the new TD going across S. Florida and into the Gulf...no rest for the weary:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LI Phil
User


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accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: doug]
      #26520 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM Attachment (273 downloads)

accuwx' forecast differs from NHC considerably...click on the attachment...straight up into Mobile Bay!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: New Tropical Depression [Re: doug]
      #26521 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM

Would the outflow produce shear?

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